June 9, 2025

(SILVER BREAKS OUT FROM ITS APPARENT SLUMBER)

June 9, 2025

Hello everyone

WEEK AHEAD CALENDAR

Monday, June 9

June 9-13 Apple WWDC25

10:00 a.m. Wholesale Inventories final (April)

1:00 p.m. Apple WWDC25 Keynote

8:30 p.m. Australia Consumer Confidence

Previous: 2.2%

Forecast: 2.5%

Tuesday, June 10

2:00 a.m. UK Unemployment Rate

Previous: 4.5%

Forecast: 4.5%

6:00 a.m. NFIB Small Business Index (May)

Earnings: J.M. Smucker Co.

Wednesday, June 11

8:30 a.m. Consumer Price Index (May)

Previous: 2.3%

Forecast: 2.5%

8:30 a.m. Hourly Earnings final (May)

8:30 a.m. Average Workweek final (May)

2:00 p.m. Treasury Budget (May)

Earnings: Oracle

Thursday, June 12

8:30 a.m. Continuing Jobless Claims (05/31)

8:30 a.m. Initial Claims (06/07)

8:30 a.m. Producer Price Index (May)

Previous: -0.5%

Forecast: 0.1%

Earnings: Adobe

Friday, June 13

10:00 a.m. Michigan Sentiment preliminary (June)

Previous: 52.2

Forecast: 52.1

A SILVER BREAKOUT – TIME TO JUMP ON THE SILVER RALLY

Weekly iShares Silver Trust (SLV) chart ($32.68)

Support and resistance lines in the above chart show the movement of silver in the last few years. The divergence shown highlights the beginning of a rally around mid-year 2022, and the following price action arguably formed what could be seen as an inverse head and shoulder pattern. Now, silver has broken topside resistance in June – a seasonal time for the precious metal to rally strongly. (You can also see that silver bottomed in the first quarter of 2020 and then rallied strongly from June onwards), so if silver clears the psychological key level of $35, we could see a mighty move.

The Gold/Silver ratio tells a story.

This ratio measures how many ounces of silver are needed to buy one ounce of gold. Historically, the ratio has oscillated within a broad but predictable range, with long-term averages over a century hovering around 55. When the ratio climbs significantly above that range, it has tended to mean-revert and often with silver staging explosive outperformance.

Currently, as David Bird, a market technician, points out, the ratio remains extremely elevated at 97.70, signalling that silver is deeply undervalued relative to gold. Every time this ratio has reached similar extremes in the past, particularly when adjusted for inflation and real yields, it has preceded a major silver rally. And with silver being the more volatile of the two metals, it tends to benefit the most from these rebalancing moves.

Here, we have patiently waited for a very good set-up: high ratio, confirmed seasonal strength and supportive macro tailwinds.

And sentiment is exactly where you would expect it to be. People have been casting doubts on silver, and becoming frustrated because it has not been “moving” as they have expected. But it is important to understand that silver has been quietly accumulating.

As Bird argues, markets are designed to wear you out, before they pay you out. When any stock grinds sideways for a period, it is more often than not building energy to launch to the upside. And this is why some people just stop out – retail mainly – and eventually lose. Remember, patience is a very important behaviour when trading/investing in the markets.

Recommendation: Buy iShares Silver Trust (SLV), currently priced at ($32.68) if you don’t own it, or you can add to your holding here.

And/or

Option

33/35 call spread

Buy the iShares Silver Trust (SLV) out-of-the-money $33 call

Sell the iShares Silver Trust (SLV) out-of-the-money $35 call

Expiry: September 30, 2025

Max Profit: 131

Max Loss: 69

Cost = 0.69 or best price

No. of Contract = your choice according to your portfolio cash balance. (Prices listed above = 1 contract)

As an example, if I choose 5 contacts on this SLV option spread (at current prices listed), we get the following:

Max Profit = 655

Max Loss = 345

And 10 contracts would equal the following:

Max Profit = 1,310

Max Loss = 690

And/Or

33/36 call spread

Buy iShares Silver Trust (SLV) out-of-the-money $33 call

Sell iShares Silver Trust (SLV) out-of-the-money $36 call

No. of Contracts: your decision

But if you choose 10 contracts:

Max Profit = 2050

Max Loss = 950

Cost = 950

Expiry: October 17, 2025

Trade with care. Just make sure you can sleep at night.

MARKET UPDATE

S&P500

The index ended last week at 6000. I am still expecting further movement to the upside in the weeks/months ahead in spite of all the macroeconomic and geopolitical headwinds. Just don’t expect a straight line up.

Resistance: 6025/50 area and 6100.

Support: 5940 area, 5875/90 area, and 5785 area.

GOLD

Since late April, we have seen gold moving in ranges. This movement is characteristic of a larger topping behaviour, which is still playing out. The market is overbought, which is a big-picture negative. This movement also typifies slowing momentum.

Resistance: $3403/13/$3370 (recent high) and $3425/50 area

Support: $3307/17, $3239, and $3190 area. We need to see a close below $3000 to confirm that this medium-term rally has ended.

BITCOIN

Bitcoin is correcting after reaching a new high of 112k. This top could be in place for a month or more before we see bitcoin rally again. We may see some consolidation before further lows are made. MACD is also showing a sell signal on the daily.

Resistance: 105.4/105.9 and 107.8k

Support: 102.6/103k and 100k (recent low)

HISTORY CORNER

ON JUNE 9