July 16, 2025

 

(KNOW YOUR EXIT SIGNALS)

 

July 16, 2025

 

Hello everyone

 

I think we can all agree that it is much easier to know when to enter a trade than it is to exit a position.

So, in today’s Post, I’m going to look at signals that tell us when to sell a winning position or stock.

To do this, I’m going to draw on lessons from William O’Neil – one of the greatest traders of all time.

Smart Exit Signals

Blowoff Top Alert

The largest daily price gain – especially after a long run – often marks the end, not the beginning.

Volume Spike Exit

Heaviest volume day after an extended move? Institutions could be quietly heading for the door.

Exhaustion Gap

A sudden gap up late in a rally can be the final thrust before a sharp reversal.

Climax Top Formation

An explosive weekly gain on speed and emotion often signals instability – not strength.  In other words, it shows the stock is moving too fast and might be close to a top.

Distribution Signs

High volume, no progress/no movement higher?  Smart money/institutions might be unloading as retail keep buying.

 

Channel Blowout

A move above the upper channel line looks powerful – but often precedes exhaustion.

Overextended from 200-Day MA

Stocks 70-100% above the 200-day MA are stretched thin- don’t chase into euphoria.

Post-Split Hype

Sharp rallies after a stock split can signal unsustainable optimism.  Sell if a stock runs up 25%, 50%, or even 100% after a stock split.

Persistent Selling Pressure

More down days than up = shifting control.  Supply is outweighing demand.

Don’t Freeze on the Way Down

Missed the top? Exiting on weakness is still smart – waiting too long turns a dip into disaster.

These aren’t just technical – they’re behavioural triggers.

They show when the crowd is euphoric – and when the smart money leaves first.

The best traders don’t marry their winners.  They rotate with discipline.

THE AGE OF DISCONNECTION

For millions of young people, and even not-so-young people, the defining feeling of modern life is not excitement or hope, it is disconnection.

And Australia is no exception.

One in four young Australians reports struggling with loneliness.  They are not alone, and yet they feel they are.  They live with full inboxes and empty hearts, scrolling and scrolling past each other in search of something we can’t name– and then wondering why the silence won’t go away.

Teenagers, particularly, are in a spiritual drought.  They are a generation raised online, surrounded by noise but starved of closeness.

We are in an epidemic of loneliness.   Last week, the World Health Organization declared loneliness a public health threat on the scale of smoking or obesity.

The stats are staggering:  one in six people on Earth now feels profoundly alone.

The World Health Organization estimates that it is responsible for more than 100 deaths every hour.  That’s nearly 900,000 a year.

This is a crisis that doesn’t announce itself.  It creeps quietly into bedrooms, classrooms, cafes, office spaces, and trains.

It doesn’t show up on an X-ray; it hides behind smiles & laughter, in jokes, in parties, in social media profiles, in dating site profiles.

It is accepted when people say they are stressed or burnt out, but have you ever heard anyone say they are lonely?  It is a quiet wound, and one that festers.   It is an emotional wound that eats away at an individual’s well-being and soul. This Dis-ease then manifests as a complex condition that overwhelms the immune system, leading to chronic illness.

The human being is a social animal.  We need real connection.  Its absence shows up in the body – inflammation, heart disease, and diabete,s to name just a few. 

One study found that loneliness is as bad for your health as smoking 15 cigarettes a day.

Australia is a country that prides itself on mateship, which appears less visible in the modern era.   

This is one epidemic that is not getting attention.

Students, elderly neighbours, teenagers are living unfulfilled lives because of this vacuum of connectivity.  And this doesn’t only cause pain, it also causes a change in behaviour.

We become suspicious and angry; we lack trust and tend to cocoon ourselves.

What can we do?

Start small.  Say hello to strangers on a walk.  Or even invite someone for a walk.   Don’t talk on the phone, go and physically visit someone. 

Start a group and get together every month. 

It’s always the little things that really count.

 

 

 

Cheers

Jacquie