Jacque's Post
August 4, 2025
(STORM CLOUDS RAIN ON THE MARKETS AS AUGUST 1 TICKS OVER)
August 4, 2025
Hello everyone
WEEK AHEAD CALENDAR
Monday, August 4
10:00 a.m. Durable Orders final (June)
10:00 a.m. Factory Orders (June)
7:30 p.m. Japan BoJ Meeting Minutes
Earnings: Palantir Technologies, Vertex Pharmaceuticals, Axon Enterprise, Simon Property Group, Diamondback Energy, Coterra Energy, Tyson Foods, Loews, ON Semiconductor
Tuesday, August 5
8:30 a.m. Trade Balance (June)
9:45 a.m. PMI Composite final (July)
9:45 a.m. S&P PMI Services final (July)
10:00 a.m. ISM Services PMI (July)
Previous: 50.8
Forecast: 51.5
Earnings: News Corp, Devon Energy, Arista Networks, Amgen, Super Micro Computer, Match Group, Advanced Micro Devices, Yum! Brands, Marriott International, Fidelity National Information Services, Duke Energy, Pfizer, Molson Coors Beverage, Caterpillar, Marathon Petroleum, Apollo Global Management, Archer-Daniels-Midland
Wednesday, August 6
11:00 p.m. China Trade Balance
Previous: $115B
Forecast: $104B
Earnings: CF Industries, Costco Wholesale, TKO Group, Paycom Software, Fortinet, Uber Technologies, Occidental Petroleum, MetLife, DoorDash, Airbnb, Rockwell Automation, McDonald’s, Emerson Electric, Walt Disney.
Thursday, August 7
7:00 a.m. UK Rate Decision
Previous: 4.25%
Forecast: 4.00%
8:30 a.m. Continuing Jobless Claims (07/26)
8:30 a.m. Initial Claims (08/02)
8:30 a.m. Unit Labor Costs preliminary (Q2)
8:30 a.m. Productivity preliminary (Q2)
10:00 a.m. Wholesale Inventories final (June)
3:00 p.m. Consumer Credit (June)
Earnings: Live Nation Entertainment, Block, Take-Two Interactive Software, GoDaddy, Wynn Resorts, Gilead Sciences, Trade Desk, Insulet, Expedia Group, Motorola Solutions, Microchip Technology, Akamai Technologies, Ralph Lauren, Parker-Hannifin, Warner Bros. Discovery, ConocoPhillips, Martin Marietta Materials, Eli Lilly, Zimmer Biomet Holdings, EPAM Systems, Kenvue, Constellation Energy.
Friday, August 8
8:30 a.m. Canada Employment Change
Previous: 83k
Forecast: -15k
AUGUST CRASHED THE MARKETS – EXPECT SOME MORE DOWNSIDE
August is often a ho-hum month for the markets, and this year might not be any different, especially after such a rapid rise since April. It’s normal to take a breather at some stage.
For the S&P500, support comes into play at the pre-tariff sell-off all-time high of Feb. 19 at roughly the $631 level. A correction to this level would represent a 4.1% decline from Thursday’s all-time high.
Don’t get the idea that it will cleanly touch this level and then bounce off. As we know, markets can fall further than we anticipate and rally higher than we ever imagined.
So, start thinking of support levels as zones. These zones can take in a much wider price action area. And there are plenty of support zones below the $631 area.
Support comes into play all the way down to around the $575 level. A correction down to this level would represent a 10.10% decline from Thursday’s all-time high.
The mid-point support zone – or mezzanine zone – as I like to call it, comes into play at the $593 level. If the market reaches this level, it would have declined 7.25% from Thursday’s all-time high.
Thus far, the market sell-off is a mere 3.16% and is only two days in duration.
Further downside is expected in the days/weeks ahead. Prepare accordingly. In fact, you should already have a hedge in place, as I have been cautioning you about this move for some time.
LIKE STOCKS, THE CRYPTO RALLY MAY ALSO COOL IN AUGUST
Following weak jobs data and Trump’s new tariffs ranging between 10% and 41%, investors expect crypto to pull back in August. Traders are expected to dump their highly speculative assets.
Bitcoin appears to be caught in the crosshairs. On the one hand, there is ETF-driven optimism, and on the other, there is uncertainty around global trade tensions.
Most analysts expect investors to be buyers of pullbacks and are looking for a reacceleration in the crypto space in the latter half of the year.
The real wildcard will be the September Fed meeting. Powell’s remarks often create sharp and short-term volatility. As geopolitical tensions continue to flare and are not likely to subside in the near future, we could see sudden shifts in sentiment. However, unless macro conditions start to fall apart in a major way, both BTC and ETH appear to be building momentum beneath the surface. As is always the case, the greatest rewards will go to the most patient.
MARKET UPDATE
S&P500
August 1 whipped the market lower from the July 31st all-time high at 6427. This fierce move lower was not unexpected. The market was extremely overbought after the surge from the April low at 4835. This move may argue a top for at least a few weeks/months, so expect some consolidation and/or a move down to a support zone.
Resistance: 6285 & 6385 area
Support: 6195 & 6140/50
GOLD
The dingo still roams the ranges, and this chopping movement is expected to continue, which is still a sign of a topping in gold. (This is where retail investors became inpatient and threw in the towel, handing their positions to institutions who scoop them up. Don’t join that club).
And that thought goes for Silver as well. After forming a huge base, silver is ready to explode to the upside soon – keep accumulating. An a-b-c pattern may be in play at present. ~$35 area could be seen as the low.
Resistance: $3370/80 & $3430/40 & also $3475/85 area.
Support: $3268 & $3238 area & $3155 area.
BITCOIN
The coin has continued lower from its July 14th high at 123.2k. Though bitcoin broke below the $114/$115k support area, and it could be seen as a bearish sign, I still see it as a correction from the high, with new highs to be seen in Q2 in the latter half of the year.
Resistance: 114/115k area
Support: 111.5/112.0k area
HISTORY CORNER
On August 4
QI CORNER
Giorgio Torre (Strategy, AI Transformation, LLMs)
Charles Henry Manchau (Chief Investment Officer at Syz Group)
SOMETHING TO THINK ABOUT
MY CORNER
The clouds said it all on Saturday (my time). There was snow falling nearby. And in the news that evening, there were reports that it had been snowing in Stanthorpe and Warwick in Queensland and in and around Armidale in New South Wales. It normally never snows in Queensland; the last time we had a dusting was in 2013. Ridiculously cold!
I live on the Gold Coast. Warwick is two hours 20 mins west of the Gold Coast.
Stanthorpe is three hours 2 mins drive south- west from the Gold Coast. Both are in the state of Queensland.
And Armidale (NSW) is 5 hours 31 mins south of the Gold Coast.
Cheers
Jacquie
