Jacque's Post
August 15, 2025
(SUMMARY OF JOHN’S AUGUST 13, 20205 WEBINAR)
August 15, 2025
Hello everyone
TITLE: Bubble Territory
STRATEGY DINNER: August 22, 2025 – Lake Tahoe Strategy Dinner. Tickets: $249. To purchase go to the Store and click on “Luncheons”
PERFORMANCE:
MTD = 0.84%
YTD = 53.28%
Since inception = +8-5.17%
Average Annualised Return = +51.29%
PORTFOLIO REVIEW:
Risk On:
(NFLX) 8/$1040-$1060 call spread (10%)
(FCX)8/$34-$37 call spread (10%)
Risk Off:
(TSLA) 8/$370-$380 put spread (10%)
(SPY) 8/$445-$450 put spread (10%) (Stop Loss -Closed)
THE METHOD TO MY MADNESS:
Stocks are now at very high-risk levels due to increasingly unstable world.
AI is the big leader, but the risk/reward here is terrible with Volatility Index at $14.
Bonds approaching 2025 lows, yields new highs.
Economic data is deteriorating rapidly.
Gold hits new high on tariff fears.
Oil is still dead due to recession fears and OPEC market share battle.
US Dollar is flat lining on rate cut fears, now at 90%.
Bitcoin hits new all-time high, at $123k.
THE GLOBAL ECONOMY – CONFUSING:
Nonfarm payroll comes in at a disastrous 73,000 in July, taking the headline unemployment rate up.
Big downward revisions were announced forthe previous months of 253,000.
CPI rising 0.2% showing big YTD rises.
World Food Commodity prices rose to their highest in over two years.
US Alcohol sellers to lose $2 billion in sales.
U.S. services take a big hit, with the Institute for Supply Management’s Index of services down last month at 50.1, below all estimates.
Factory Orders Collapse at the fastest rate since data collection began.
STOCKS – TESTING HIGHS
Computers are bulls while humans are bears.
Machines are trading off momentum and volatility, while humans are looking at valuations and macroeconomics.
Computers are at pre-pandemic highs in risk, while humans have been moving towards an underweight position in stocks all summer.
Watch out when the rubber band snaps, says John. These two strategies remain out of synch for weeks, not months.
Ford adds $5 billion to EV Investment, concentrating on budget models.
Lithium stocks surge as a major Chinese producer halts exports.
Global equity funds see second week of outflows.
91% of managers believe stocks are overvalued, but cash is at a historic low.
John says to stay away from Bitcoin, crypto, and associated ETFs.
John likes Freeport McMoRan (FCX). Target = ~$100. LEAPS candidate.
BONDS – DARK CLOUDS
Bond Auction was a disaster with below-average demand.
The auction attracted less interest from investors compared to previous sales.
The Treasury had to offer a higher yield (4.813%) to attract buyers, indicating investors demanded a premium to purchase the bonds.
A low bid-to-cover ratio (2.27), below the 10-year auction average of (2.43) signifies weak demand relative to the supply of bonds offered for sale.
Bonds appear stuck on the bottom.
$5 trillion in new government borrowing is overhanging the market.
Avoid (TLT), (JNK), (NLY), (SLRN), and REITS.
FOREIGN CURRENCIES – LOOMING INTEREST RATE CUTS
US dollar hits four year low, as the “Sell America” trade continues.
Fed interest rate cuts will cut the buck off at the knees.
We may see another 20% move down as Fed interest rate cuts loom.
If rates drop 300 basis points with the next Fed governor, as Trump has promised, the dollar is toast.
Populist Japanese election wins tank the Yen.
The next dollar weakness will come with evidence of a recession in days.
Buy (FXA), (FXE), (FXB), (FXC), and (FXY)
ENERGY & COMMODITIES – GOING NOWHERE
Oil is going nowhere due to recession fears.
U.S. drillers cut rigs for 10th week, or the first time since July 2020, thanks to a global oil glut.
OPEC increases production by 550,000 barrels a day.
Budget Bill kills effort to restore Strategic Petroleum Reserve, cutting the funding by 90%.
US Crude Inventories hit one-year low.
Look for energy plays to hit new lows.
Copper hits a new all-time high on 50% tariff.
Nuclear plays are still hot with a deregulation tailwind.
PRECIOUS METALS – POLITICAL FOOTBALL
US Gold Futures hit a new all-time high, at $3,534 an ounce.
The sudden 50% tariff shock has prompted some Swiss exporters to halt all shipments to the US, creating a short squeeze.
Gold then sold off when the tariff was removed days later.
Bitcoin breakout is stealing gold’s thunder.
Traders have been rolling out of hedges as stocks rise.
Silver hits a new high for the year. Target = $50.
John’s target for gold is $5,000.
REAL ESTATE – GREEN SHOOTS?
Disastrous July Nonfarm payroll report raises the probability of a September Fed interest rate cut from 40% to 90%.
High interest rates have been the monkey on the back of the real estate market for three years.
S&P Case Shiller falls for the first time in years, with their National Home Price Index, down 0.3% in May.
New York City and Chicago showed healthy gains, while Tampa, San Francisco, and Dallas saw falls.
New interest rates are certainly taking their pound of flesh.
Pending Home Sales drop by 0.8% in June and 2.8% YOY on a signed contract basis. Active listings are up 29% YOY.
Mortgage applications are down 5% on the month.
TRADE SHEET
Stocks – stand aside
Bonds – sell rallies
Commodities – buy dips
Currencies – buy dips
Precious Metals – buy dips
Energy – stand aside
Volatility – sell over $30
Real Estate – stand aside
NEXT STRATEGY WEBINAR
12:00 EST Wednesday, August 27, 2025
From Incline Village, NV.
QI CORNER
Charles-Henry Monchau (Chief Executive Officer at Syz Group)
Cheers
Jacquie
