October 6, 2025

(THE DATA BLACKOUT MIGHT RUIN THE BULLISH RUN)

October 6, 2025

Hello everyone

WEEK AHEAD CALENDAR

Monday Oct. 6

Earnings: Constellation Brands

Tuesday Oct.7

8:30 a.m. New York Federal Reserve Bank Director of Research Kartik Athreya speaks at the Orange County Partnership Investor Breakfast.

8:30 a.m. Trade Balance (August)

10:05 a.m. Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Bowman speaks at the 2025 Community Banking Research Conference, St. Louis.

10:30 a.m. Fed Governor Miran discusses at the Managed Funds Association Policy Outlook 2025, New York.

11:30 a.m. New York Federal Reserve Bank Director of Research Kartik Athreya speaks at the West Point Finance Club Speaker’s Regional and National Economic Outlook’.

3:00 p.m. Consumer Credit (August)

4:05 p.m. Fed Governor Miran discusses at the Deutsche Bank 2025 Fall Macro Conference, New York.

Earnings: McCormick & Co.

Wednesday Oct.8

9:30 a.m. Fed Governor Barr speaks at the 2025 Community Banking Research, St. Louis.

2:00 p.m. FOMC Minutes

5:45 p.m. Fed Governor Barr speaks at the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis Center for Indian Country Development 10^th Anniversary and Data Summit.

Thursday Oct. 9

8:30 a.m. Continuing Jobless Claims (09/27)

8:30 a.m. Fed Chair Powell speaks at the Community Bank Conference, Washington, D.C.

8:30 a.m. Initial Claims (10/04)

8:30 a.m. Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Bowman speaks at the Community Bank Conference, Washington, D.C.

10:00 a.m. Wholesale Inventories final (August)

11:45 a.m. New York Federal Reserve Bank Director of the NY Innovation Center, Per von Zelowitz, panels at the Chicago Payments Symposium.

12:45 a.m. Fed Governor Barr speaks at the Economic Club of Minnesota Luncheon, Minneapolis.

3:45 a.m. Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Bowman speaks at the Community Bank Conference, Washington, D.C.

Earnings: Delta Air Lines, PepsiCo.

Friday Oct. 10

10:00 a.m. Michigan Sentiment preliminary (October)

2:00 p.m. Treasury Budget (September)

THE FED IS WALKING BLINDFOLDED INTO THE NEXT MEETING

Investors are in blackout mode as the government remains shut down. The indexes closed out last week on a high. The S&P500 closed above 6,700 for the first time ever. The Nasdaq continued to outperform, as semiconductors rallied. Nvidia hit a $4.5 trillion market value last week.

Gold and Bitcoin are still enjoying huge rallies. Retail traders are deeply involved in the Bitcoin trend higher.

So, we must ask. Is the shutdown going to affect the bullish party?

Historically, stocks have disregarded shutdowns. However, if it continues for longer than usual, then concern will become heightened.

If the Fed does not have crucial data ahead of its Oct. 28-29 meeting, then that is going to make it very difficult for them to decide. Lack of transparency around economic conditions heading into the decision could cause a degree of volatility, which may break the bull’s spirit.

According to the CME FedWatch Tool, markets are pricing in two quarter-point cuts by the end of the year, with the next coming later this month.

Other events that are coming up may give us more insight into the strength of this market. Later in October, third-quarter earnings start, and the Federal Open Market Committee minutes from the September 16-17 meeting may give investors some clarity into the makeup of the Fed, following the divisions in the last two meetings. Additionally, Fed speakers, including Powell, are set to speak at various conferences.

MARKET UPDATE

S&P500

The index has reached another all-time high as the bullish trend continues.

No confirmation that this trend has finished, but further gains are likely to show a choppier pattern.

Risk is high.

We could see a violent sell-off late this year or early next year, and this will shake out the weak hands.

Resistance: 6751/6765/75

Support: 6645/55 and 6530/40

GOLD

Gold has made new all-time highs, and with still no signs of even a shorter-term top (thus far,) the bias remains to the upside.

Risk is high; the market is overbought.

A change in market structure could begin with a violent decline. A drop below $3,500 could see an end to this strong move and begin a move lower for several weeks/months.

Resistance: $3900

Support: $3815/365

Next Target= $3991

BITCOIN

In September, Bitcoin dipped to around $108k but then reclaimed the $112k level before closing out the month of September. Traders are cautious about what comes next. The early days of October have shown a strong rally.

Momentum indicators such as the RSI and MACD suggest the rally is losing steam in the short term, while technical wave patterns point to Bitcoin being in the final stages of its current bullish cycle. Despite this, there are many analysts who see room for one more push higher before any significant retracement.

For the bulls to continue their authority, Bitcoin needs to hold above the $109k level and extend higher. We could interpret the reset in September to the sub-$110k levels as a new platform from which Bitcoin will launch to higher levels.

It seems that October could prove to be a pivotal month for Bitcoin.

Holding these key support levels would fuel confidence that Bitcoin’s longer-term uptrend remains firmly intact.

In the very big picture, Bitcoin’s structural trend remains bullish. Institutional flows, increasing adoption, and macroeconomic uncertainty continue to underpin demand for BTC as a hedge and growth asset. Even if volatility returns in the short term, long-term holders will probably view dips as an opportunity.

So, to sum up,

# Bitcoin is sharply higher, with no signs of a short-term top.

#Short-term upside momentum argues for some further gains.

BUT

# Recent move may be part of a larger topping with new highs above $124/7k potentially limited. An upside failure?

# Long-term resistance from Dec. 2017 is just above there in the 127/128k area.

#Nearby support is seen at 118/119.2k

# If we see a continuation of this bullish trend towards $150+, following the new platform at around $109K, a rest is still possible after significant new highs are achieved.

# Additionally, the patterns and momentum on the weekly and monthly charts are not aligned. So, short-term bearish action is a possibility. Expect a move like this to shake out the weak hands and get many to short this market prematurely.

#Projected peaks in this move are between $128 – $160k.

HISTORY CORNER

On October 6…