Jacque's Post
October 17, 2025
(SUMMARY OF JOHN’S OCTOBER 15, 2025, WEBINAR)
October 17, 2025
Hello everyone
TITLE
Friday Surprise
PERFORMANCE
October = 1.08%
2025 YTD = +53.76%
Since inception = +805.68%
Trailing one year return = +95.96%
Average annualised return = +50.89%
PORTFOLIO
Risk On
(MSTR) 10/$260-$270 call spread (Expires Oct. 17)
(GS) 10/ $700-$710 call spread (Expires Oct. 17)
Risk Off
(TSLA) 10/$510-$520 put spread (Expires Oct. 17)
METHOD TO MY MADNESS
Stocks are selling off from very high-risk levels and only needed a trigger, which it got on Friday.
However, John does not see more than an 8% sell-off in the coming weeks.
The long-term bull arguments of super liquidity, AI, falling interest rates are still the market drivers.
Bonds get a big boost from trade war induced global recession.
Jobs data remains dire.
John sees gold peaking and taking a long overdue rest.
Oil hits new 2025 lows on Mideast peace deal.
U.S. dollar rallies.
Bitcoin takes a big hit, 3X the (SPY).
THE GLOBAL ECONOMY – THE SHUTDOWN DRAGS ON
Visibility has become invisible, with the complete disappearance of government economic data.
Each week of shutdown cuts US GDP by 0.1%
September Consumer Price Index only to be released on October 24. All other data release is frozen.
U.S. Consumer Sentiment was steady in October, according to the University of Michigan.
U.S. imports of containerized goods in September plunge 8.4% from the year earlier, including a 22.9% drop in goods from China.
Christmas just got more expensive, with trees from Canada and ornaments from China falling victim to the trade war.
Private sources at the Carlyle Group suggest that only 17,000 jobs were gained in September.
Soybean farmers are going broke, after China cancels all orders, the world’s largest buyer.
STOCKS – FRIDAY MINI CRASH
Trump China Trade Threats tank markets with tariff up 100%.
One day volatility pop of 40% sends options premiums soaring.
Fed Minutes tank financials, and all other interest rate sensitive sectors indicating that several members voted against an interest rate cut in September.
The government shutdown has delayed 87,254 flights this week, on top of 2,538 cancellations. Airports are in chaos.
Airbus tops Boeing as the most delivered jet in history.
AMD soars 30% on Open AI’s purchase of a 10% stake.
Fifth Third Bank buys Comerica for $10.9 billion.
Buy the dip – QE is coming.
Publicly listed US Companies drop by half in 30 years explaining huge increase in earnings multiples over decades.
John’s S&P500 downside targets
$650 = 1st support
$630 = 2nd support
$620 = 3rd support
BONDS – RECESSION BOOST
New trade war chapter sends bonds soaring, and yields falling.
However, this rally will end when the stock correction ends.
There is no juice in a bond trade these days with prices trapped in a narrow range.
There is still a big overhang on this trade from the exploding National Debt, declining U.S. credit quality, and collapsing U.S. dollar.
The U.S. Yield Curve is Steepening.
The only thing that can save the bond market is massive Fed buying though quantitative easing in eight months.
Avoid (TLT), (JNK), (NLY), (SLRN), and REITS.
FOREIGN CURRENCIES – RARE DOLLAR RALLY
U.S. dollar faces a prolonged decline, off the back of the coming Fed interest rate cuts.
The U.S. dollar strength last week is from a flight to safety bid from the stock market.
With a government shutdown, the ‘sell America’ trade is back on, too.
Australian dollar tanks on China retaliation.
We may see another 20% move down as more Fed interest rate cuts loom.
Next dollar weakness will come with evidence of more rate cuts.
Buy (FXA), (FXE), (FXB), (FXC), and (FXY)
ENERGY & COMMODITIES – NEW LOWS
Oil hits new lows at $58 a barrel as OPEC+ moves to increase production.
Russia needs to fund the war, and Saudi Arabia needs to fund a lavish lifestyle.
Saudi Arabia would prefer to see double, triple, or even quadruple that figure – 274,000 bpd, 411,000bpd or 548,000bpd respectively.
Only Saudi can ramp up production quickly and wants to grow market share.
Glencore gets $394 million copper subsidy from the Australian government.
Rare Earth prices soar on China supply clampdown, including Holmium, Erbium, Thulium, Europium, and Ytterbium. China supplies 90% of the world’s rare earth magnets.
Copper prices hit a new high – $11,000 per metric ton.
PRECIOUS METALS – BACKING OFF
John sold all his gold and silver at the all-time high on Wednesday.
John’s $5:00 spread at $4.96 had only four cents left.
The rally up until then exactly matched the size of the rally in the spring, or $500 an ounce, a great time to take profits.
Gold ETF inflows hit a one – months low of only $2 billion.
Looking to get back in on a 10% correction with more in the money call spreads as the time decay is working.
John says we may get another multi-month flat line like we did for four months during April to August. John’s medium-term target is still $5,000.
QE and interest rate cuts (on the horizon) could cause explosive moves up in precious metals prices.
REAL ESTATE – A PAUSE IS HERE
The stock selloff will slow the bull market in real estate for a month.
Investors are pouring back into the housing market.
Real estate investors, both individual and institutional, bought one-third of all single-family residential properties sold in the second quarter of 2025.
That is an increase from 27% in the first quarter, and the highest percentage in the last five years.
Investors accounted for 25.7% of residential home sales in 2024.
The bull market in housing is back.
TRADE SHEET
Stocks – buy interest rate sensitive
Bonds – stand aside
Commodities – buy dips
Currencies – buy dips
Precious Metals – buy dips
Energy – stand aside
Volatility – sell over $30
Real Estate – buy dips
NEXT STRATEGY WEBINAR
12:00 EST Wednesday, October 29, 2025,
from Incline Village, NV
Cheers
Jacquie
