Jacque's Post
October 31, 2025
(SUMMARY OF JOHN’S OCTOBER 29, 2025 WEBINAR)
October 31, 2025
Hello everyone
TITLE
Leaving the Station
PEERFORMANCE
October MTD = +3.07%
82.62% trailing one year return
51.14% average annualized return
PORTFOLIO
(NFLX) 11/$1,000-$1020 call spread
(ZM) 11/$72.50 – $77.50 call spread
(GS) 11/$700-$710 call spread
THE METHOD TO MY MADNESS
Investors unwilling to wait for the government shutdown to end are pushing stocks to new highs.
Bonds are grinding up – expecting more Fed rate cuts.
The long-term bull arguments of super liquidity, AI, falling interest rates are still the market drivers.
Jobs data remains dire.
Gold and silver peak and take a long overdue rest.
New US sanctions against Russia spike oil 5%.
US dollar rallies modestly.
Bitcoin bounces.
THE GLOBAL ECONOMY – THE SHUTDOWN DRAGS ON
CPI comes in soft at 3.0%.
US reaches another trade deal with China. How long until the next one?
US Health Insurance premiums jump to $27,000.
China GDP comes in line at 4.8%, versus 5.0% expected.
US Import taxes hit $29.6 billion in September, all all-time high and up 295% YOY.
Fed Beige Book comes in dour, reflecting sentiments from their meeting six weeks ago.
IMF raises global growth forecast, from 3.2% for 2025 to 3.1% for 2026.
STOCKS – UNWILLING TO WAIT
Investors unwilling to wait for the government shutdown to end are pushing stocks to new highs.
Airbnb ramps up anti party software. In 2024 (ABNB) hosted a staggering 491 million bookings. Buy (ABNB)
Fed to overhaul stress tests in another big win for financials.
General Motors goes ballistic to an all-time high, up 15%, with tremendous earnings beat and forecast.
Ford soars 13% on earnings beat.
Rivian announced mass layoffs – the end of the $7,500 EV tax credit slips in on September 30.
Beyond Meat (BYND) reaches short interest exceeds 109%, creating a 7X short squeeze in a week.
Netflix bombs, with earnings coming in at $5.87 a share versus an expected $6.97. Buy Netflix.
Apple surges to a new all-time high, topping $4 trillion in market cap. The iPhone 17 series outperform.
S&P500 SUPPORT LEVELS
1st support = $650
2nd support = $630
BONDS – GRIND UP
Bonds slowly grind up powered by Fed interest rate cuts, taking yields below 4.0%.
No trade here, no volatility, but high risk.
Debt crisis postponed until 2026 when the government must borrow $10 trillion, including rollovers.
There is still a big overhang on this trade from the exploding National Debt, declining US credit quality, and collapsing US dollar.
The US Yield Curve is steepening.
The only thing that can save the bond market is massive Fed buying through QE in 8 months.
Avoid (TLT), (JNK), (NLY), (SLRN) and (REITS).
FOREIGN CURRENCIES – RARE DOLLAR RALLY
US dollar faces a prolonged decline off the back of coming Fed interest rate cuts.
The US dollar strength last week is from a flight to safety bid from the stock market sell off.
With a government shutdown, the “sell America” trade is back on too.
Australian dollar tanks on China retaliation.
We may see another 20% move down as more Fed interest rate cuts loom.
Next dollar weakness will come with evidence of more rate cuts.
Buy (FXA), (FXE), (FXB), (FXC), and (FXY)
ENERGY AND COMMODITIES – SANCTIONS
US imposes Oil Sanctions on Russia, spiking prices 5%.
The step comes at a time when global supply looks plentiful as nations inside and outside the OPEC+ producer alliance ramp up output amid signs of cooling demand growth.
If India does drastically cut purchases – senior refinery executives said the restrictions would make it all but impossible for flows to continue.
The question will become whether China is willing to step into the void.
Oil hits new lows at $58 a barrel as OPEC+ moves to increase production.
Russia needs to fund the war, and Saudi Arabia needs to fund a lavish lifestyle.
PRECIOUS METALS – BACKING OFF
John sold his precious metal holdings at the highs.
Not time to get back in yet.
Precious metals and related mining stocks are retreating after a parabolic move up over the past two months.
The charts suggest that gold and gold miners are due for a more prolonged period of consolidation to reset their bullish long-term trends.
There is gap-based support $3,927/oz.
If it is breached, it would increase near-term downside risk to the 50-day moving average (MA), currently $3,766/oz.
The long-term gold and silver plays are still on.
REAL ESTATE – RECOVERING
Existing home sales hit seven months high – up 1.5% in September.
Supply of previously owned homes surges 14.0% from a year ago.
Median house price up 2.1% to $415,200 from year-earlier period.
Existing home sales jumped 4.1% on a year-over-year basis.
The average rate on the popular 30-year fixed-rate mortgage is near a one-year low of 6.27%.
Some realtors also have said the shutdown is delaying contract closings.
All-cash sales constituted 30% of transactions, unchanged from a year ago.
Pulte Homes beats, with third-quarter earnings of $2.96 per share on $4.4 billion revenue exceeded expectations.
TRADE SHEET
Stocks – buy interest rate sensitives
Bonds – stand aside
Commodities – buy dips
Currencies – buy dips
Precious Metals – buy dips
Energy – stand aside
Volatility – sell over $30
Real Estate – buy dips
NEXT STRATEGY WEBINAR
12:00 EST Wednesday, November 12, 2025, from
Incline Village, NV.
Cheers
Jacquie
