November 3, 2025

(HEALTHCARE IS AN UNDERVALUED SECTOR – IT MIGHT BE TIME TO TAKE A LOOK)

November 3, 2025

Hello everyone

WEEK AHEAD CALENDAR

Monday, Nov. 3

9:45 a.m. S&P final U.S. manufacturing Oct. PMI

10:00 ISM manufacturing (OCT.)

10:00 Construction spending (Sept.)

Earnings: Eastman Chemical, Clorox, Palantir Technologies, Vertex Pharmaceuticals, Diamondback Energy, Simon Property Group, Public Service Enterprise Group, IDEXX Laboratories, Loews, ON Semiconductor.

Tuesday, Nov. 4

8:30 a.m. U.S. trade deficit (Sept.)

10:00 a.m. Factory orders (Sept.)

10:00 a.m. Job Openings (Sept.)

Earnings: American International Group, Live Nation Entertainment, Arista networks, Skyworks Solutions, Axon Enterprise, Amgen, Super Micro Computer, match Group, Mosaic, Jack Henry & Associates, International Flabors & Fragrances, Corteva, Advanced Micro Devices, Assurant, Aflac, Zoetis, Yum! Brands, Marriott International, Uber Technologies, Global Payments, Excelon, Molson Coors Beverage, Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings, Marathon Petroleum, Stanley Black & Decker, Pfizer, Martin Marietta Materials, Apollo Global Management, Archer-Daniels-Midland

Wednesday, Nov. 5

8:15 a.m. ADP employment (Oct.)

9:45 a.m. S&P final U.S. services PMI (Oct.)

10:00 a.m. ISM services (Oct.)

Earnings: CF Industries, Costco Wholesale, TKO Group Holdings, Paycom Software, Robinhood Markets, Fortinet, Qualcomm, MetLife, Devon Energy, DoorDash, Applovin, Allstate, Albemarle, PPL, McDonald’s, Iron Mountain, Zimmer Biomet, Humana, Fidelity National Information Services, Emerson Electric.

Thursday, Nov. 6

8:30 a.m. Initial jobless claims (Nov. 1)

8:30 a.m. U.S. productivity (Q3)

10:00 a.m. Wholesale inventories (Sept.)

Earnings: News Corp, Block, Take-Two Interactive Software, Expedia Group, Akamai Technologies, Wynn Resorts, Trade Desk, Mettler-Toledo International, Microchip Technology, Airbnb, Ralph Lauren, Warner Bros. Discovery, Fastenal, Datadog, ConocoPhillips, Moderna, Air Products & Chemicals, Vistra, Tapestry, Rockwell Automation, Insulet, NRG Energy, EOG Resources.

Friday, Nov. 7

8:30 a.m. U.S. Employment Report (Oct.)

8:30 a.m. U.S. unemployment rate (Oct.)

8:30 a.m. U.S. hourly wages (Oct.)

10:00 a.m. Consumer sentiment (Nov.)

3:00 p.m. Consumer credit

Earnings: Franklin Resources, Duke Energy, KKR & Co., Constellation Energy.

CSL – BACK TO FAIR VALUE

CSL has been a favourite stock among many Aussies for decades. Over the past few decades, it’s transformed into a global health care powerhouse and a consistent wealth generator for investors.

We know all stocks move through distinct phases: accumulation, uptrend, distribution, and decline, and CSL is no different, as we have seen. Right now, CSL appears to be in the latter phase.

As David Bird, a technical analyst, points out, it is this movement through the phases that creates opportunity. And we are now presented with this opportunity when we look at the price action of CSL.

CSL share price has fallen from around $340 in 2020 to near $170 today.

That appears to be a fall from grace, but Bird notes that the fundamentals tell a different story.

In 2020, CSL earned roughly $4.80 per share. Today, earnings per share have climbed higher than that even as the stock price nearly halved.

This is divergence – when the company’s price falls, while the company’s earnings rise. Bird suggests it is sentiment that is driving the fall.

Today, CSL is trading at $170 with a (P/E) ratio around 20 in contrast to a P/E ratio above 50 in 2020.

Management forecasts 4-5 per cent sales growth for FY26 and NPATA growth of 7-10 per cent, reaching roughly US$3.45-$3.55 billion.

For the first time in a decade, Bird points out that the stock is trading at attractive value levels.

This is an opportunity.

The stock’s revenue continues to grow, its earnings are increasing, and its global operations remain robust.

Sentiment is the drag.

The buy range sits between $130 -$170.

The monthly RSI currently sits near 28, a level not seen since 2002, when the stock fell from around $17 down to $4 before beginning a multi-year bull run that turned CSL into one of the ASX’s greatest long-term performers.

If we look at the macro environment, we see that the broader healthcare sector is also historically undervalued.

The sector has been one of the worst performers since 2020. But markets move in cycles, and this sector is now in a reset phase.

From 2026 onwards, Bird argues that the cycle is expected to turn, with healthcare historically beginning to outperform during the late stage of an expansion and the early stages of a bear market.

CSL is one of the top 10 companies on the ASX, with deep moats, growing earnings, and global scale.

It’s not going anywhere.

CSL weekly chart ($175.39)

MARKET UPDATE

S&P500

The index made a new high of 6920 (the ceiling of the bull channel from June). There remain lots of negatives and risk is high, but there is no indication yet of even a short-term top, so the bias remains to the upside.

Resistance: 6920/35

Support: 6765 and 6640/65

GOLD

The shiny metal reached a record low of $3887 but closed above the critical level of $3900. After such a huge rally, we may see some unwinding and digestion with some wild swings in both directions.

Resistance: $4040/50 and $4070/80 + $4128/38

Support: $3935/45 and $3880/90 area.

BITCOIN

The bitcoin chart remains messy and very choppy. This ranging behaviour looks set to continue for a while yet. Sub 105k, we could be looking at around 90k or even 70k. Above 124k rally would take us to around 150k.

Resistance: 111.3k/111.8k and 116.1k/116.6k

Support: 106.3k/107.3k

HISTORY CORNER

On November 3

QI CORNER

Linas Beliunas (Building a safe internet with AI)

SOMETHING TO THINK ABOUT

Sahil Bloom (NYT Bestselling Author of the 5 Types of Wealth)

The Harvard Study of Adult Development is the longest-running study on happiness.

Here are 3 powerful findings everyone should know:

1. Relationship satisfaction impacts health.

The researchers looked back at the lives of the 80-year-old participants to determine what factors were predictive of healthy aging.

What did they find?

Relationship satisfaction at age 50 was predictive of health at age 80.

Study director Robert Waldinger:

“It wasn’t their cholesterol levels that predicted how they were going to grow old. It was how satisfied they were in their relationships. The people who were the most satisfied in their relationships at age 50 were the healthiest at age 80.”

2. Loneliness kills.

Humans are social creatures. We thrive through connection to those around us.

Study participants who felt isolated were observably less happy and experienced notably earlier declines in health than those who felt connected.

The study observed the negative impacts of alcohol and smoking on the long-term health of the participants, but found that loneliness was just as negatively impactful.

Study director Robert Waldinger:

“Loneliness kills. It’s as powerful as smoking or alcoholism.”

3. Quality over quantity.

The researchers found that the quality of relationships was more impactful on health and happiness than the quantity of relationships.

A few deep bonds are worth far more than hundreds of weak or unhealthy ones.

Relationships are, quite literally, everything.

Hopefully, the insights from my conversation with Dr. Robert Waldinger shine a light on their importance—and hopefully you take a few tiny actions that improve your Social Fitness in the days and weeks ahead.

Invest in your relationships—they will pay dividends in all areas of your life for many years to come.

AND LAST BUT NOT LEAST