November 21, 2025

 

(WHAT’S HAPPENING IN THE MARKETS?)

 

November 21, 2025

 

Hello everyone

 

In this Post, I’ll be showing several charts and making some comments on the price action, which will include some targets and future projections.

 

BITCOIN DAILY CHART

 

This Bitcoin daily chart shows a five-wave sequence and an ABC correction, which is still unfolding.

I have overlaid the Fib. Levels on top of this sequence which shows clearly where the projected targets may lie.   The box illustrated on this chart lies between the 382Fib and the 618 Fib, and this is where Bitcoin should eventually find a low.   The trendline sits right on the 382 Fib at around 82k. 

In the short term, it is very possible that Bitcoin and all crypto and tech could bounce strongly.   Furthermore, there is even an outside possibility that Bitcoin could rally to around 145k. 

Some analysts, therefore, are arguing that the recent price action could be a false break to the downside, before a massive rally to the upside. 

We must watch and wait to determine what the market is saying.

According to Tom Lee, manager of Fund Strat, crypto and the AI trade are closely linked, as Lee believes investors who have significant holdings in AI-related stocks tend to also hold bitcoin.  Lee sees further declines to come for crypto assets, which could indicate further pain in stocks.  In the long term, however, he is optimistic.

Lee notes that the sudden crash in crypto prices that took place on October 10 was caused by an escalation in U.S. – China trade sentiment and was also influenced by structural factors such as high leverage in crypto derivatives. More than 1.6 million traders saw a combined $19.37 billion erasure of leveraged positions over 24 hours beginning that day, making it the largest ever liquidation event tracked by data analytics firm CoinGlass. 

Lee sees a base in crypto prices on the horizon. 

 

Strategy Weekly Chart

 

In the Strategy chart, it is projected that the stock can target the 786 Fib at around $150 and then come to rest on the 200 MA.  An extended lower low from that Fib would be around $80.  But, as with Bitcoin, a bounce is possible before the lower lows are seen.   As you can see, the RSI and MACD are extremely oversold, so a counter-trend rally is possible in the short term.

 

Nasdaq Weekly chart

On the weekly Nasdaq chart, you can see that both the momentum indicators – RSI and MACD – have turned bearish.  It is now possible that the Nasdaq is completely correcting the price action since the March 2020 low.  The box on the chart indicates the zone where this correction could find a base. 

 

Nasdaq weekly chart

On this Nasdaq chart, I have shown the exhaustion gap that often takes place near the end of a trend.  It is very often followed by a type of doji and then a bearish engulfing candle (or dark cloud cover)

 

S&P500 weekly chart

This chart shows the divergence clearly, which indicates that momentum has been slowing for a while.  It also shows how far away price action is from the 50 and 200 moving averages.  Both the RSI and MACD have turned bearish.

 

S&P500 weekly chart

 

The chart above shows the Fib levels that price action could target in the future.  If we break 6,000 on the S&P500, we could see around 5,500 in the index.  The box on the chart shows the zone we could find a low in the future.  I am about 75% certain that this bearish price action will play out.  So, the market action over the next few months could be quite volatile and destructive.

 

S&P500 weekly chart

 

As with the Nasdaq, the S&P500 also illustrates a similar topping feature. Exhaustion gap, doji, and a bearish engulfing candle pattern.

While we are looking at markets, let’s look at gold.

 

Gold Daily Chart

 

Gold is correcting from its huge rally this year. It has made a lower high and has continued lower.   If gold breaks 3,900, then we can see targets of 3,876 (50%Fib) and by extension 3,750 (618%Fib).

In summary:

In the short term, a bounce is possible.

In the medium term, I am bearish on Bitcoin/crypto & stocks.

Therefore, on any significant rallies, I would take a bearish view on them.

December is approaching, historically a dangerous month when losses, psychology, and tax mechanics collide.

In the long-term I am very bullish on Bitcoin and crypto in general.

It’s now time to watch price action to determine where and when the markets will find a base.

I have been researching some bear put spread trades on the (SPX).  You could look at the money bear put debit spreads.  But be prepared for the possibility of ferocious rallies.

A 6700/6720 is one option, but the market is very volatile right now, and prices are changing quickly. 

Also, if gold closes below 3,900, I will be looking for a couple of trades to put on (GLD), so we can capture the potential bearish price action.

2026 should see a peak in the property market.  Just as the gold rally illustrated a frenzy of people lining up to buy gold before it rolled over, so we have also seen a huge spike in the number of people lining up to get mortgages – particularly since the introduction of the Australian government scheme offering first home buyers the ability to only pay a 5% deposit.   When prices roll over (and they inevitably will), consequences will be felt.

 

Cheers

Jacquie