December 1, 2025

 

(WILL WE SEE A STRONG RALLY IN DECEMBER 2025?)

 

December 1, 2025

 

Hello everyone

 

Welcome to December.

The final month of the year could be interesting.  We could see stocks resuming a bullish trend with some choppiness along the way, much to the relief of many investors & fund managers.

On the other hand, we could see some choppiness and digestion near the highs followed by a gut churning correction to around 6,000.

 

WEEK AHEAD CALENDAR

Monday, Dec. 1

9:30 a.m. Manufacturing PMI (Nov.)

10:00 a.m. Construction Spending (MoM) (Sep.)

10:00 a.m. ISM Manufacturing PMI (Nov.)

20:00 p.m. Fed Chair Powell Speaks

 

Tuesday, Dec. 2

10:00 a.m. JOLTS Job Openings (Sep)

Earnings:  CrowdStrike Holdings

 

Wednesday, Dec. 3

8:30 a.m. Import Prices (September)

9:45 a.m. Services PMI (Nov.)

10:00 a.m. ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (Nov.)

Earnings:  Salesforce, Dollar Tree

 

Thursday, Dec. 4

Earnings:  The Cooper Cps, Ulta Beauty, Hewlett Packard Enterprise, Kroger, Brown-Forman, Fastenal, Hormel Foods, Dollar General.

 

Friday, Dec. 5

10:00 Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Dec.)

 

WILL FINANCIAL ADVISORS BE REPLACED BY AI?

AI is powerful, but it is not a replacement for human empathy and judgment.

Numbers are just one element – goals, fears, and values are also central.

AI will probably be seen as an assistant, as it delivers faster service, but the human connection cannot be replaced.

Experience and wisdom are two things that AI hasn’t proven to have mastered quite yet.

While AI can make financial information more accessible, prudent advice is built on empathy, trust, and human connection.

Clients are not just looking for data or forecasts; they seek understanding, reassurance, and a trusted partner who understands and respects their goals and circumstances.

AI will be a valuable tool that enhances an adviser’s capabilities, improving efficiency, precision, and access to insights.

WALL STREET IS PINNING ITS HOPES ON WHAT IS HISTORICALLY ONE OF THE STRONGEST MONTHS OF THE YEAR

December could bring tailwinds back to the stock market and return it to all-time highs.  Historically, since 1950, it’s the third-best month of the year for the Dow and S&P500; it’s also the best month for the Nasdaq, since 1971, according to the Stock Trader’s Almanac.

Bullish undercurrents are supporting the current market.

Wall Street is coming off robust third-quarter earnings, with the S&P500 set to post a blended growth rate of 13%, meaning companies have navigated higher prices and higher tariffs to exceed consensus expectations.  Additionally, the Federal Reserve is expected to lower rates again in December, giving interest-rate-sensitive businesses an added boost.

Those money managers who have been sitting on the sidelines for most of the year may put cash to work to try and make one last attempt to boost their portfolios and beat their benchmarks.

November’s weakness could also mean the stock market is primed for a bounce.  Major tech names, for instance, were punished In November.   Some attractive bets, according to analysts, include Microsoft and AMD.

Still, there are others who are concerned that there is more downside to come.  Some analysts are predicting a 10% correction in the next three months. 

So, perhaps, we should expect some bumpiness in December with a lean towards the seasonal bull trend.

MARKET UPDATE

S&P500

Since the November 21 low at 6522, we have seen the index bounce sharply higher.  This is seen as part of large swings in both directions.  At the present time, there is no confirmation of a shorter-term top, so we could see further upside.

Resistance:  6865/75 and 6925

Support:  6760, 6630, and 6520

 

GOLD

The shiny yellow metal is showing wide-ranging behaviour as the market consolidates the huge rally from the late August low at 3322.  Gold has surged latel,y and this is seen as part of the larger period of wide swings. 

Resistance:  4240/50 and 4275/85

Support:  4165 and 4050/60

 

BITCOIN

Bitcoin bounced after hitting a spike low at 80.5k.  However, we could see sub 80k before a low is settled.  A lot of churn and consolidation is expected before Bitcoin sees further rallies.

Resistance:  92.8k and 95/96k + 98/99k

Support:  89/90k and 83.7/84.2k

TRADE CORNER

Robinhood (HOOD) $128.49

 

 

In this chart we have a strong three-point pattern, which is also supported by a divergence which suggests a continuation of the bullish trend.  The moving averages also support the trend.

Analysts see (HOOD) positioned to perform well long-term as the broker continues to scale its business, launch additional products and capabilities, deepen current client relationships, and expand its (TAM) total addressable market both domestically and internationally. 

Shares are up 245% this year.

The consensus view is that (HOOD) will target $260+.

TRADE IDEA

135/145 (HOOD) bull call spread at $3.57.  Expiry = February 20, 2026

Max Profit = 643.  Max Loss = 357.

Or you could buy the stock, or do both, or just sit on your hands and observe.

HISTORY CORNER

On December 1

 

 

QI CORNER

Paras Arora (Senior Associate at Alpha Quantum Group)

Trader vs Investor — Who Really Wins in the Long Run?

Every few months, the “Trader vs Investor” debate lights up again — but the truth is most people choose a side without even understanding the game they’re playing.

Here’s the reality

Investors Build Wealth
• They focus on businesses, not price ticks.
• They ride cycles, compounding capital slowly but powerfully.
• They survive because they don’t need to be right every day — only over time.

⚡ Traders Create Cash Flow
• They focus on price behavior, not long-term narratives.
• They profit from volatility — something investors fear.
• They survive because they manage risk first, returns next.

The Problem?

People lose money when they invest like traders (panic & exit early) or trade like investors (hold losers hoping they’ll recover).

The moment you mix the two without clarity → the market humbles you.

The Winning Formula

It’s not “Trader OR Investor”.
It’s knowing WHO you are, and building your strategy around it.

✔ If you want wealth → prioritize investing
✔ If you want monthly cash flow → add trading
✔ If you want both → define rules, systems, and discipline

Markets don’t reward labels.
They reward clarity, consistency & risk management.

⸻

Are you a trader, an investor, or a hybrid who’s mastered both?

 

SOMETHING TO THINK ABOUT

And in the southern hemisphere – in Aussie land

Cheers

Jacquie