December 8, 2025

(FED COMMENTARY COULD SHAPE THE MARKET IN DECEMBER)

December 8, 2025

Hello everyone

WEEK AHEAD CALENDAR

Monday, Dec. 8

Earnings: Toll Brothers

Tuesday, Dec. 9

10:00 a.m. October Job Openings and Labour Turnover (JOLTs)

Earnings: AutoZone, Campbell’s, AeroVironment, Cracker Barrel

Wednesday, Dec. 10

2:00 p.m. FOMC Meeting wraps up

2:30 p.m. Powell press conference

Earnings: Oracle, Chewy, Vail Resorts, Synopsys

Thursday, Dec. 11

Earnings: Broadcom, Ciena, Lululemon, Costco

Friday, Dec. 12

No eventful data today.

It’s Fed week

Will the central bank deliver the rate cut that so many expect?

Weakness in the labour market seems to have more traders confident that the Fed will cut. If they don’t cut, I believe the market could respond quite negatively.

With the outlook for lower rates this week seemingly already priced into the market, the rate announcement itself is unlikely to act as a catalyst to push prices higher.

Perhaps more important is the commentary by Chair Jerome Powell after the decision is announced. Powell’s words can move markets with breathtaking speed. A more dovish outlook for 2026 could see more easy money next year and possibly allay fears of a slowdown in the jobs market.

On the other hand, a hawkish tone could see a dark cloud form over the market landscape and chill investor spirits.

Powell’s term as Fed chair ends in May 2026. National Economic Council Director, Kevin Hassett is seen as the favourite to replace Powell.

The market is more focused on who is coming next. Under more dovish leadership, there is potential fuel to boost the market in the longer term.

Oracle reports this week

Oracle releases its latest quarterly results after the close on Wednesday. The numbers will be interesting. Investors have been sceptical about Oracle’s numbers and its debt load, and its future projections.

16’s and under in Australia confront a new reality this week

In Australia, the new social media ban for 16’s and under will become law on December 10.

A poll conducted by Resolve Political Monitor found the following results:

29 per cent of parents planned to fully enforce the ban by deleting apps from the kids’ phones.

53 per cent of respondents said they would pick and choose what their child could access.

13 per cent plan to take no action on the ban.

A survey of 1800 voters conducted last week showed 67 per cent in favour and just 15 per cent opposed. The remainder were undecided.

There has been a lot of noise about how successful this law will be, but if it can help teens not to live their lives through an app on a screen, that is a positive in my view. Who knows, they may even learn to communicate with each other again – face to face.

Cathie Wood, chief of Ark Investment Management, is making moves in mega-cap tech stocks

In November, Woods added to her positions in Nvidia and Google, and this week she trimmed her holdings in Meta and Tesla.

On December 4 and 5, Wood unloaded 45,356 Tesla shares and sold 23,411 shares of Meta Platforms.

The top 10 holdings of the Ark Innovation ETF as of Dec. 5, 2025

Tesla (TSLA) 12.30%

CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP) 5.53%

Coinbase (COIN) 5.50%

Tempus AI (TEM) 5.18%

Shopify (SHOP) 4.97%

Roku (ROKU)

Robinhood (HOOD) 4.69%

Roblox (RBLX) 3.72%

Palantir (PLTR) 3.56%

Beam Therapeutics (BEAM) 3.32%

According to Bloomberg, Meta recently said that it is reducing its resources dedicated to the metaverse. The company plans to redirect those savings into other Reality Labs efforts, including AI glasses.

Since the third quarter earnings, the company has been under pressure, when it revealed that expenses would grow much faster in 2026 than in 2025. Shares have dropped more than 10% since October 29. But many analysts are now seeing upside for Meta stock.

MARKET UPDATE

S&P500

The index has surged from the Nov. 21 low at 6522. More churn and choppiness expected. The index is at the ceiling of the bear channel from October and would seem at an ideal area to form a top (though this has not been confirmed yet). In the short-term, gains above this area may be limited.

Resistance: 6915 area

Support: 6800 and 6700

GOLD

The market continues to consolidate after the large surge from August. In the short-term, fading extremes would seem to be the most favourable action to take.

Resistance: 4265 area

Support: 4170, 4085 and 3960 area

BITCOIN

Choppiness is the theme for Bitcoin at the present time. Any move sub-80k could see the coin move towards a target of ~77k.

Several analysts have a long-term bear view on Bitcoin and see it languishing for the next 9-12 months.

On the other hand, there are those forecasters who see Bitcoin targeting 150+ in the next couple of months.

We can only be confident of the probability of any view as time passes and price action/cycles is/are either confirmed or invalidated.

Resistance: 92.5, 94.6

Support: ~88k, 84 area

HISTORY CORNER

On December 8