December 15, 2025

(CONSUMERS JUMP INTO HOLIDAY MODE, WHILE INVESTORS WAIT FOR ECONOMIC DATA)

December 15, 2025

Hello everyone

WEEK AHEAD CALENDAR

Monday, Dec. 15, 2025

Tuesday, Dec. 16, 2025

8:30 a.m. Nonfarm Payrolls (November)

8:30 a.m. Retail Sales (October)

Earnings: Lennar

Wednesday, Dec. 17, 2025

Earnings: Micron Technology, General Mills

Thursday, Dec. 18, 2025

8:30 a.m. Consumer Price Index (November)

8:30 a.m. Real Earnings (November)

Jobless Claims (Week ending December 13)

Earnings: Nike, FedEx, Cintas, Darden Restaurants

Friday, Dec. 19, 2025

Earnings: Lamb Weston, Paychex, Conagra Brands

EVENTFUL WEEK AHEAD

It’s all happening this week. Jobs data, inflation data, and retail sales. What the data shows will probably fall in line with what most of us already know – sticky inflation and weak jobs growth. Whether the American consumer is generous in their spending this holiday period is yet to be seen.

JPMORGAN’S TOP PICKS GOING INTO 2026

GOOGL – Alphabet (Price Target = $385)

AMZN – Amazon (Price Target = $305)

DASH – DoorDash (Price Target = $300)

SPOT – Spotify (Price Target = $805)

AI may drive holiday spending this year.

It seems many shoppers are turning to AI platforms like OpenAI’s Chat GPT, Google’s Gemini, and Perplexity this holiday season to help them buy gifts for their loved ones, and maybe a few for themselves, too.

Whether consumers use them to get gift ideas or compare prices, AI platforms are poised to reshape the shopping experience and drive billions in revenue this holiday season, as it becomes harder to get discovered on traditional search platforms.

In a report published last month, Salesforce said it expects AI to drive a staggering $263 billion in global online holiday sales this year, representing 21% of all holiday orders.

In other surveys conducted by Visa, Zeta Global, and other organizations, it was revealed that 40% and 83% of consumers plan to use AI for shopping this holiday season.

Incredibly, AI traffic to U.S. retail sites surged 760% between Nov. 1 and Dec. 1, according to Adobe.

The surge in AI shopping has led retailers big and small to rethink their strategies to ensure they’re showing up where customers expect them to be. Walmart and Amazon have each launched their own AI shopping assistants, and others, including Walmart, Target, and Etsy, have partnered with OpenAI so customers can search for items or buy products without leaving ChatGPT.

That’s all totally foreign to me. I bake all my Christmas/holiday gifts, and I usually buy my son clothes – will he ever stop growing? – and/or give him money to put into his trading account, or just buy him some stock outright. I don’t need any AI to do that. I don’t think I’d be a great contributor to the American consumer culture.

Sadly, the people who often spend the most are the people who can least afford it. And at the beginning of the year, the financial pain becomes obvious when the credit card debt load confronts the big spenders head-on.

NEWS & CURRENT AFFAIRS

A father and son went on a shooting rampage at Bondi Beach on Sunday evening as a Jewish festival was taking place, and thousands were enjoying the last rays of the hot summer sun. 16 people are confirmed dead thus far, and 42 people have been taken to five different hospitals across Sydney.

One of the shooters – the father – was shot dead. His son is in the hospital with life-threatening injuries.

In an incredible act of bravery, a tobacconist/ fruit shop owner, who had recently arrived in the country with his family from Syria, hid behind a car close to where the son was aiming a rifle at people on the beach. While distracted, aiming his gun, the shop owner came up behind the man, grabbed him around the neck, tackled him, and managed to take the gun away from the shooter. His act of bravery saved many lives. It was revealed that he had no experience with guns. The shooter ran off in the direction of his father, who was standing on a bridge, shooting at people.

The incident has been declared a terror attack by NSW police.

In response to the second-worst shooting rampage in Australian history, the Prime Minister will introduce tougher gun laws in Australia.

MARKET UPDATE

S&P500

The index is testing the ceiling of the bear channel since October. Wide-ranging choppiness is part of a larger topping, which could be seen for a few weeks.

Resistance: 6903 (December 11 high)

Support: 6795/6705

GOLD

The shiny yellow metal has been building on gains from the late October low at $3887. Although it is a positive sign, the extent of future gains is a question. The price action can still be seen as part of that extended period of wide ranging since the October high of $4381. So, there is a possibility of wider consolidation ahead. On the other hand, if price action can stay above the 4,257.24 area, then gold could target 4,430.93.

Resistance: $4354 (December 12 high)

Support: $4275, $4170, $4120

BITCOIN

The coin remains in a limited range as consolidation takes place ahead of the probability of new lows below 80k. Erratic price action and poor upside momentum add to the view that more downside pressure may be seen in the near to medium term.

But, if price can stay above 87, 577.36 area, then there is a possibility that Bitcoin could rally past 90,600k and target the 106k area.

Resistance: 94.7k/95k area

Support: 87/88k area + 85/85.5k area

HISTORY CORNER

On December 15

QI CORNER

Asad Chaudhry (Associate Director – Investment Advisory at Standard Chartered Private Bank)
We expect risky assets to outperform in 2026 amid an AI boom, easing fiscal and monetary policies, and abating trade tensions. Gains are expected to be accompanied by greater dispersion, resulting in our preference to diversify across a wider range of asset classes centered around three key themes.

Equities: Inflating markets, inflating AI debate. We expect strong AI-driven earnings growth to overcome elevated valuations, but it is time to diversify.

Income: EM to trump DM bonds. EM (USD and local currency) bonds offer attractive yields and diversification from a Fed-centric outlook.

Diversifiers: Chasing glitter. Gold to extend gains in 2026, but alternative strategies and currencies like JPY and CNH are key to diversification.

Risks: Fundamental or financial? AI disappointment, a contagious credit event, a Fed reversal, or a hawkish BoJ are risks.

Stelios Nistas (CFA), Global Markets Analysis Specialist at Alpha Bank’s Wealth Management