January 21, 2026

(GEOPOLITICS COULD EVENTUALLY WAKE UP THE BEAR AND TOPPLE MARKETS)

January 21, 2026

Hello everyone

WEEK AHEAD CALENDAR

Monday, Jan. 19

Martin Luther King Day – stock market and bond markets are closed.

Tuesday Jan. 20

Earnings: Fastenal, Netflix, Interactive Brokers Group, United Airlines, U.S. Bancorp, 3M, KeyCorp, Fifth Third Bancorp, D. R. Horton

Wednesday, Jan. 21

10:00 a.m. Construction Spending (September, October)

Earnings: Kinder Morgan, Johnson & Johnson, Halliburton, Citizens Financial Group, Truist Financial, Charles Schwab

Thursday, Jan. 22

8:30 a.m. Personal Income (October, November)

11 a.m. Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Index (January)

Earnings: Intuitive Surgical, Capital One Financial, Intel, CSX, Northern Trust, Procter & Gamble, McCormick & Co, Huntington Bancshares, GE Aerospace, Freeport-McMoRan, Abbott Laboratories

Friday, Jan 23

9:45 a.m. S&P Global PMI Composite preliminary (January)

10 a.m. Michigan Sentiment final (January)

Earnings: SLB

Earnings are in full swing, and most analysts are confident that companies can keep meeting or surpassing expectations.

Investors will be watching key inflation releases in the US as this data could influence rate cuts.

Markets are closed on Monday, January 19, for Martin Luther King Day.

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Geopolitical tensions and conflicts have become entrenched of late and show no sign of cooling. President Trump seems to have a shopping list of countries he wants to dominate, whether for strategic U.S. positioning or resource control, or both.

Amongst them, Venezuela, Iran, and Russia control half of all global oil reserves and some 40 per cent of natural gas. And then there is Greenland, with all its natural resources – significant deposits of rare earth elements, alongside valuable minerals like iron ore, graphite, zinc, gold, copper, palladium, and potential for oil and gas reserves. Despite the upheavals and skirmishes recently, energy costs haven’t spiked. But my research tells me that the energy sector is rumbling, like a volcano, and will eventually surge higher.

Despite all these conflicts around the world – Russia/Ukraine, Iran, Venezuela, & Trump’s strong words about Greenland– the stock market has calmly motored along, until Tuesday, when tariffs, Greenland, and the implications hit home. This correction is nearing support and coincides with seasonal weakness that is expected around the middle part of January during Midterm election years. If the seasonal pattern continues this year, we should bottom at the support zone (in the next few days) and rally into February. Support is seen around the 6720-6752 zone. Only if the December lows are broken would I begin to view the pattern in a different light.

Now, let’s return to geopolitics. There is one simmering conflict, aside from Trump’s Greenland takeover notions, that has the potential to explode and rock worldwide economies. I’m talking about the tensions between China and Taiwan, which have the potential for open U.S. – China conflict.

Beijing has made no secret about its thoughts about Taiwan, saying that it has “historic rights” over the country, which puts China at odds with Japan, the Philippines, and America’s other regional allies, which host countless US military bases.

The Chinese navy, the world’s largest for some time, has been showing off its military might lately. There have been several “too close for comfort” events against the US and Australian vessels across the South China Sea and the Strait of Malacca – China’s gateway to the Indian Ocean and global markets, as well as the route of 80 per cent of China’s vital oil imports, coming mainly from the Persian Gulf.

2025 saw China stage more than 3,000 air incursions over Taiwanese airspace, up from barely 1,000 in the early 202’s. Taiwan’s undersea cables linking the country to the world have seen a sharp escalation in damage during the latter half of 2025.

The 2026 New Year’s address by Xi was clear. He described the “reunification” of Taiwan as “unstoppable.”

Just as the US dropped a multi-billion-dollar arms package for Taiwan in early 2026, China fired multiple rockets into waters just off the island nation, displaying several new assault ships and dismissing prospects of US and allied intervention to block Chinese annexation.

2027 is the centenary of China’s People’s Liberation Army. We should not be complacent about events that are now setting the tone for what may take place in 2027. Imagine if we see open conflict between the two largest superpowers – mutual trade would cease, stopping the global economy in its tracks.

Now, let’s think about Taiwan’s dominance in global semiconductor manufacturing. Semiconductors directly enable trillions of dollars per year of economic activity – from automotives and critical infrastructure to defence capabilities and artificial intelligence (AI)

Taiwan is responsible for more than two-thirds of global production, including 90 per cent of the advanced chips now vital to so much manufacturing.

China is the world’s second largest chip maker – controlling 80 per cent of the worldwide production of rare earths and other raw materials used to make semiconductors.

Here’s something to think about. If China takes Taiwan, where does that leave the West and its semiconductor trade, stockpiles, and industry?

Geopolitical events can be ignored by the stock market up to a point, but all it takes is for one seismic crack to occur to wake up the bear, leading to a sea of red across world markets.

MARKET UPDATE

S&P500

Upside momentum in the index is starting to splutter. With the index falling almost as soon as the market opened for the new week, it is probable that we could see some more downside and/or consolidation for the short term. Note my comments in the body of the text above.

Resistance: 6986/7010/7015

Support: 6895/6720

GOLD

Though the shiny metals appear extended, and lots of people are now talking about gold and precious metals, I still believe we could see more upside.

Ideally, we want to see a move above 4,620 ~ to confirm a continuation of the bullish trend. This would then give a target of around $4,740~ or possibly even higher.

Since I wrote the above, gold has smashed through 4,800. We could possibly see 4,900 or even 5000+ before this rally is exhausted.

If we get a close below $4,536.00, then we would need to rethink the bullish strategy.

Silver, too, is still considered in a bullish trend. The next target is around 96.00~ and then 101.60.

Price must remain above ~82.70 for this bullish trend to continue.

BITCOIN

No change here. The market continues to range and consolidate after the move off the October peak at 126.3k. The ranging pattern is considered corrective, and there is a high probability of new lows below 80k in the short to medium term. There is a possibility that Bitcoin could reach the 103/105 area prior to a move lower, but at the present time, such a move would be seen as a rally to sell into.

Resistance: 98k/103.8k

Support: 94-95k/90.3k

HISTORY CORNER

On January 19

QI CORNER

Family Offices & Institutional Investors

Kevin O’Connor (CFA)

Venezuela Was Just the Beginning: Today, Jan 17th, Greenland Confirms the New Investment Playbook

AGAIN with the “no weekend R&R, Yes, Ugh!!!”…The last two weeks have unveiled a powerful new geopolitical reality for investors. The January 3rd Venezuela catalysts, which validated my call on Energy stocks posting on Jan 4th ($SLB, $HAL, $BKR, $XOM, $CVX, $PAA, $QIH, $AMPL, $XLE), was just the first signal. Earnings calls for HAL (Wednesday) and SLB (Friday) have now become even more critical. See my post on Jan 4th in the comment section.

TODAY, January 17th, the additional tariff announcement on eight NATO allies confirms the broader strategy: Resource Nationalism. The administration is aggressively using economic tools: sanctions, tariffs, etc., to secure strategic assets, from oil to critical minerals.

This isn’t just an Energy story anymore. The Greenland tariffs will create a ripple effect across the global equity markets. Here is a breakdown of the most impacted sector:

1. Energy Sector ⛽️: The Venezuela rebuild is the immediate catalyst. Greenland’s Arctic potential is the long-term prize.

2. Critical Minerals ⛏️: (New High-Conviction Theme): Greenland is a treasure trove of Rare Earths (REE’s), lithium & uranium, vital for AI and defense. This is a direct challenge to China’s dominance. Watch U.S. players like $MP, $CCU, $UUU, $USAR, $CRML

3. Defense & Aerospace ✈️: NATO friction & Arctic security will drive spending. Key names: $LMT, $NOC, $RTX.

4. Healthcare M&A Tailwind 💊: European biotech becomes more attractive for U.S. pharma ($ABBV, $LLY) amid tariff pressure, accelerating the M&A thesis from the JPM Healthcare Conference.

New reality: Geopolitical risk is now a structural catalyst, not a temporary headline.