The Aspirin Standard

In 1899, Bayer (BAYRY) patented acetylsalicylic acid – what we now call aspirin. This “miracle drug” then became the cornerstone of one of the most powerful pharmaceutical empires the world had ever seen.

Unfortunately for Bayer, by 1917, they had to give up the patent as part of World War I reparations. Poof. Gone. That’s biotech for you. You can invent the wheel and still get kicked off the cart.

Regeneron (REGN) knows this dance well. It gave the world Eylea, which redefined treatment for macular degeneration, and now, thanks to biosimilars and attention-deficit investors, it’s being priced like a tired has-been. Which is great because it’s nowhere near done. And the smart money knows it.

Eylea’s decline has been predictable but exaggerated. The original anti-VEGF therapy has faced a barrage of competition from Roche’s (RHHBY) Vabysmo and a new crop of biosimilars.

Yes, revenue is falling – from $6.3 billion in 2022 to an estimated $2.6 billion this year – but the narrative of terminal decline misses the evolution happening under the hood.

Regeneron launched Eylea HD, a longer-acting formulation with competitive dosing flexibility, and within a year, it already accounts for nearly half of franchise’s net sales.

Still, Eylea is no longer the crown jewel. That honor goes to Dupixent, the interleukin-4 receptor antagonist that’s quietly become one of the most commercially successful biologics in history.

Over 1.3 million patients have been treated. Revenue for 2025 is estimated at $17.7 billion globally, with Regeneron pocketing nearly $6 billion in collaboration payments from Sanofi (SNY).

And by Q3 of this year, the company expects to finish paying down its development balance with Sanofi, unlocking even more cash flow directly tied to Dupixent’s runaway success. This turns it into a royalty stream with muscle.

Investors hoping for hard guidance won’t get it. Regeneron plays its forecasts close to the chest.

But Q3 earnings came in well above consensus, and there’s no reason to expect anything less when Q4 numbers hit. I’m modeling $3.83 billion in revenue and non-GAAP EPS of around $11.60, comfortably ahead of consensus.

The market hasn’t fully priced in the acceleration we’re likely to see over the next 12–24 months, especially once that Sanofi obligation comes off the books.

Beyond the big two, the company is building out a solid supporting cast. Libtayo, its checkpoint inhibitor, is now approved for adjuvant cutaneous squamous cell carcinoma.

This is a small but telling victory given that Merck’s (MRK) Keytruda hasn’t managed the same.

Libtayo is also gaining traction in advanced lung cancer and looks set to break $1.4 billion in 2025, with a realistic path toward $2.5 billion by 2030.

Kevzara, Regeneron’s arthritis treatment, may not be flashy, but it’s growing steadily and could cross $1 billion in annual revenue if current trends hold.

Then there’s the pipeline – dense, diverse, and deliberately underhyped. Late-stage candidates span immunology, oncology, hematology, rare disease, and cardiometabolic.

Regeneron has a GLP-1 receptor agonist in late trials in China (via Hansoh Pharma), aiming to enter the lucrative obesity and diabetes space currently dominated by Novo Nordisk (NVO) and Eli Lilly (LLY).

If the data are even modestly positive, it could mark Regeneron’s entry into a $60 billion annual revenue category. That alone would shift the valuation conversation dramatically.

The company is also making a stealthy but serious move into gene therapy.

Nex-Z, developed with Intellia for transthyretin amyloidosis (ATTR-CM), has had safety bumps, but early data expected in the first half of 2026 could reopen the door to an entirely new commercial pathway.

It’s a moonshot, yes, but one with Regeneron’s manufacturing precision and clinical rigor behind it.

Financially, Regeneron is pristine. Over $8 billion in cash, a trivial $2 billion in long-term debt, and nearly $4 billion returned to shareholders in 2025.

They’ve even initiated a dividend – small, for now, but a clear signal that they’re entering a phase of stable, cash-generative maturity. Using a modest 8.5% discount rate, my DCF models peg fair value at north of $900 per share, which is an unsexy but quietly compelling 20% upside.

What makes this story so attractive isn’t hype or speculative science. Its durability.

Regeneron has built a business that functions with the confidence of a company that’s already won big – and knows exactly how to do it again.

There’s none of the frantic scrambling you see in earlier-stage biotechs, nor the bloated complacency that haunts Big Pharma. Just a quiet, clinical execution of a long game.

So while the market is busy chasing the next shiny object, Regeneron is doing what it’s always done best: making money, expanding access, and turning solid science into shareholder value.

And unlike Bayer in 1917, they get to keep the aspirin.