This Third Wheel Is Riding Shotgun

Obesity is a $100 billion market in the making, and the market’s already crowned two kings: Eli Lilly (LLY) and Novo Nordisk (NVO).

Which makes Amgen (AMGN) the quiet third, aka the biotech equivalent of the third man in a two-man race.

But here’s the thing – MariTide isn’t just a me-too molecule. It’s potentially a better mousetrap. And unlike the incumbents, Amgen’s stock hasn’t priced in a dime of upside.

It’s not just about MariTide, of course. Amgen enters 2026 having posted 12% top-line growth in Q3 of last year, pushing nine-month revenue to $25.8 billion.

EPS is up 84% over the same stretch, and full-year guidance was raised on both revenue and earnings.

This is a company growing as it means it, even as it digests a major acquisition (Horizon Therapeutics) and juggles a pipeline the size of a small nation’s GDP.

Yes, the patent cliff is real. Enbrel, Prolia, Xgeva, Aranesp, Nplate, Otezla – Amgen’s old guard is either already genericized or teetering.

These drugs still accounted for over a third of 2025 revenue, and by 2030, that contribution could be chopped in half.

But the offset is already underway.

Repatha, Evenity, and Tezspire are all scaling revenue meaningfully, with forecasts pointing to a combined $6 billion run rate by decade’s end.

That still leaves a gap. And Amgen knows it. Which is why it’s not coasting.

In the last year alone, the company secured five new FDA approvals, pulled in an extra $4 billion from Horizon’s portfolio, and now boasts 14 products generating $1 billion or more annually.

Biosimilars like Pavblu, Wezlana, and Bekemv are clawing into established franchises. And the small cell lung cancer entry Imdelltra is a real, albeit early, contender.

This is a company that seems very aware of where it stands in the market cycle and even more aware of what it needs to do to stay relevant.

The fact that management has continued to invest heavily in early and mid-stage assets, rather than over-indexing on short-term cost-cutting, speaks volumes. There’s a deliberate attempt here to stay ahead of the next patent cycle, and it’s not just lip service.

The immunology pipeline alone has at least four shots on goal in fiercely competitive indications. It won’t be easy, but Amgen isn’t aiming for easy. It’s aiming for essential.

But none of this is what gets the stock moving. Not in this market.

Investors are fixated on obesity and diabetes, and rightly so. Together, these indications are rewriting the commercial playbook. Which brings us back to MariTide.

MariTide is Amgen’s long-acting GLP-1/GIPR monoclonal antibody. Unlike Lilly’s and Novo’s injectables, which require weekly dosing, MariTide aims for once-monthly maintenance.

Early data suggest strong efficacy with a better tolerability profile and less lean muscle loss. The Phase 2 data looked good. The six Phase 3 trials now underway are where it gets real.

Cardiovascular outcomes, sleep apnea, heart failure, type 2 diabetes, weight loss – Amgen is swinging for every fat pitch.

The market is not pricing this in. MariTide could be a $3.5 billion product by 2030 if it clears the bar. If the data is spectacular? Try $10 billion. Maybe $20 billion.

And unlike Novo and Lilly, Amgen’s valuation doesn’t already reflect a 10-year runway of obesity revenue. That’s the trade.

Of course, there are red flags.

Debt sits above $50 billion post-Horizon. Patent expiries will weigh on margins. And yes, a bad MariTide data readout would knock the stock back on its heels.

For now, though, operating margins are strong, guidance is moving in the right direction, and dividend yield is sitting at an attractive 2.9%.

There are plenty of ways to justify owning Amgen without betting the house on MariTide.

Still, betting against it might prove far more expensive. Especially if this candidate lives up to its billing.

Amgen doesn’t need MariTide to survive. But it might just need it to matter. And if this molecule delivers what management thinks it can, the stock’s going to need a new price tag.

Because in a two-man race for obesity, the third man just might be holding the better drug…and the cheaper stock.