February 9, 2026

 

(THE HEALTH OF THE LABOR MARKET AND  THE ECONOMY ARE IN THE SPOTLIGHT THIS WEEK)

 

February 9, 2026

 

Hello everyone

 

WEEK AHEAD CALENDAR

Monday, Feb. 9

Earnings:  UDR, Principal Financial Group, ON Semiconductor, Cincinnati Financial, Becton, Dickinson & Co, Apollo Global Management, Waters, Loews.

Tuesday, Feb. 10

Earnings: American International Group, Welltower, Robinhood Markets, Ford Motor, Gilead Sciences, Edwards Lifesciences, Assurant, S&P Global, Fiserv, Masco, Marriott International, Incyte, Duke Energy, Datadog, Xlem, Trimble, Coca-Cola Co., Zimmer Biomet Holdings, Hasbro, DuPont de Nemours, Ecolab, Quest Diagnostics.

Wednesday, Feb. 11

8:30 a.m. January Jobs Report

Earnings:  MGM Resorts International, Motorola Solutions, Paycom Software, Equinix, Cisco Systems, Tyler Technologies, Rollins, International Flavors & Fragrances, Applovin, Albemarle, T-Mobile US, McDonald’s, Kraft Heinz, Westinghouse Air Brake Technologies, NiSource, CVS Health, Humana, Hilton Worldwide Holdings, Generac Holdings, Martin Marietta Materials, and Ameren.

Thursday, Feb. 12

Earnings:  Arista Networks, Expedia Group, Applied Materials, Wynn Resorts, Vertex Pharmaceuticals, Public Storage, Ingersoll Rand, Federal Realty Investment Trust, Eversource Energy, DexCom, Coinbase Global, Airbnb, Baxter International, Zoetis, Howmet Aerospace, American Electric Poer Co., CBRE Group, Kimco Realty, Exelon, Iron Mountain, Zebra Technologies, West Pharmaceutical Services, PG & E, Entergy.

Friday, Feb. 13

8:30 a.m. Consumer Price Index (January)

8:30 a.m. Real Earnings (January)

Earnings: Moderna

This week will be all about the jobs report and inflation data, which were delayed because of the government shutdown. 

After quite a vicious sell-off last week, which was followed by a monster rally on Friday, investors will be looking for data that rebuilds their confidence in the market.

On Wednesday, the jobs report is expected to show the U.S. added 60,000 jobs last month, up from an increase of 50,000 in December.  Additionally, it’s expected to show that the unemployment rate stayed unchanged.

On Friday, the CPI is expected to show inflation increasing 0.29% and 2.5% on a monthly and yearly basis, respectively.  Let’s be mindful that it is still short of the Fed’s 2% target.

These two data releases are quite significant as they will give us an insight into the economy.  Investors will be better informed, and possibly able to decipher the Fed’s stance in future meetings, with the knowledge that price stability and full employment remain the dual mandate of the central bank.

It is possible that employment data could skew the monetary policy outlook. It is looking decidedly weak, with the payrolls processing firm ADP showing that private companies added just 22,000 positions in January, which is much weaker than forecast. 

Research shows that layoffs have hit their highest January total since the global financial crisis.  Hiring intentions are at their lowest since the same period.

Will a soft labour market influence the Fed?  We wait and watch.

What is very clear is the market rotation that has been happening.   This could continue if the economic data and earnings continue pointing to a sunny outcome.  Thus far, the fourth-quarter earnings season continues to be strong.

 

WHAT’S ON MY RADAR

I have shown here a weekly chart of the US dollar.  I believe it is worth taking note of a couple of things.  Firstly, I have drawn a line showing a triple bottom, and these three candlesticks all have bullish potential.  I have also drawn a line in the RSI panel to show a bullish divergence that has been forming for quite some time.  (This can often take place after a corrective wave sequence has been completed.)

What does all this mean?

The U.S. dollar has the potential to enter a new upward cycle, which could extend through 2026, as long as wave counts remain valid and the triple bottom and divergence are not invalidated.

 

We have heard a lot about the US dollar and the prospect of a weaker $ (DXY) going forward.

The headlines about US dollar weakness have been noisy, distracting us from what may be taking place.  The index may be quietly forming a base from which to launch in the short to medium term.

What will it mean if the US $ rises –

Gold will probably enter a corrective phase and move sideways or retrace, which aligns with strength in the US dollar.  Targets below $4,000 are possible.  In other words, gold could fall to $3,500 or even $3,200, which may play out over a year or more. 

Gold is strongly influenced by monetary policy and market sentiment.  Additionally, gold prices often rise when the US dollar weakens or when interest rates move lower.  (Please note that gold and the dollar do not always move in perfect opposition.

The U.S. dollar does tend to strengthen when interest rates remain high and the U.S. economy stays stable.

Downside pressure in the U.S. dollar appears when the Fed signals easing or when economic data weakens.

Summary: 2026 could see a period of consolidation and correction for gold, rather than a new bullish cycle.

And the US dollar could see a new upward cycle.

Let’s watch closely over the next few months to see if this plays out.  Following a corrective phase, which the USD has potentially completed, a Motive Wave typically develops, which supports the case for a USD uptrend in 2026. It is also wise to note that we could first see a test of the low before any potential rally takes place.

 

 

MARKET UPDATE

S&P500

The index roared back last Friday after trading lower during the week.  I spoke about this ranging behaviour last week, and it could continue.  Or we could see a break to the upside above 7040.  If we get this break, we could see 7,200 or even 7300 in the index before a move lower is seen.

Resistance:  6930 and 7000/20 area.

Support:  6855 and 6785 + 6710

GOLD

The shiny metal finally broke to the downside after a long period of bullish movement.  We could still see some more upside in gold this week to around 5,300~.  Large swings in both directions are possible as the market digests the recent volatility.  Ultimately, we may see gold turn lower, and this bearish movement could last many months.

Resistance: 5075 and 5135 + 5330~

Support: 4850 and 4645

BITCOIN

Bitcoin has collapsed and briefly touched under 60k late last week.  Though we may get a bounce from that low, the outlook for Bitcoin does not look rosy at the present time. We would need to see a considerable move above 105k to change the bearish projections. There is strong downside momentum presently, which argues for more bearish moves. There is a probability that we could see sub 50k and possibly even 30k many months/year?  from now when Bitcoin may eventually form a bottom. 

Resistance:  74.3k + 79.5/80k

Support:  70/71k area

HISTORY CORNER

On February 9

 

 

  

QI CORNER

Obaida K (Economist/Digital Asset & Bitcoin Strategy Analyst)

Gold and Silver in Early February 2026:
This Was Not a Technical Pullback. It Was a Regime Shock.

What we witnessed in gold and silver over a 72-hour window in early February goes far beyond a routine correction.

After peaking near $5,594 for gold and $121 for silver, markets erased trillions in notional value almost overnight. This was a rapid repricing of what “safe haven” actually means in the current macro regime.

Here’s what really happened:

1. A Fed Narrative Shock
The turning point was President Trump’s nomination of Kevin Warsh as Fed Chair.

Markets had been positioned for a dovish successor and a weaker dollar. Warsh is perceived as a monetary hawk, prioritizing currency strength and real yields. That instantly unwound the global debasement trade and restored confidence in USD and Treasuries at the expense of gold.

2. Leverage Broke the Market
The speed of the selloff was not driven by fundamentals alone.

Margin requirements on futures were raised, forcing highly leveraged positions to liquidate simultaneously. January’s speculative excess left metals fragile. Once pressure started, the move became mechanical.

3. Real Yields Reasserted Themselves
With the Fed outlook shifting, Treasury yields moved sharply higher.

When real yields rise, non-yielding assets lose relative appeal. Capital rotated from “silent hedges” into income-producing safe assets. A stronger dollar amplified the move for non-US investors.

4. Why Silver Collapsed Harder
Silver suffered its largest single-day drop in decades.

Options-driven gamma effects and its dual role as both a monetary and industrial metal made it far more sensitive to tighter financial conditions and growth concerns.

Bottom line
This is not the end of gold as a strategic asset.

It was a necessary cleansing of leverage and excess speculation. Prices have reset into more defensible territory, while the long-term drivers — fiscal deficits and geopolitical risk — remain intact.

The lesson of 2026 is simple:
Safe havens protect capital when held as assets.
They destroy it when traded with leverage.

The question now is timing — not thesis.

Are current levels a long-term allocation opportunity, or does the market still need clarity on the Fed’s new reaction function?

 

 

SOMETHING TO THINK ABOUT

David B. Armstrong CFA (Chief Executive Officer)

Something rare just happened…. again.

Yesterday, the S&P 500 dropped half a percent (-0.48%) while the equal-weight version of the same index rallied nearly a full percent (+0.87%). That kind of split, where the market cap weighted index falls hard and the equal-weight version rises meaningfully, has only happened 11 times in over 20 years.

And we just saw it twice in three weeks.

Here’s why it matters: when the mega-cap stocks that dominate the S&P 500 get hit, people start assuming the whole market’s in trouble…and the narrative writes itself to sound something like this: “If the big names are struggling, everything else is doomed.”

Except that’s not what the data shows.

Looking at the nine prior times this happened before this year, the S&P 500 was higher three months later in eight out of nine cases. Six months out? Higher every single time. Twelve months? Perfect track record. That’s not to say it will happen again…but that’s the history and data.

Meanwhile, breadth has been strong. The cumulative advance/decline line for the S&P 500 just hit a new all-time high.

ALSO…equal-weight versions of seven different sectors are outperforming their cap-weighted peers year-to-date, with Tech and Consumer Discretionary leading the way. See the chart I’ve included from Bespoke.

Translation: I think the market is broader and healthier than the headlines suggest.

Does that mean we’re out of the woods? No. But it does mean the concentration risk everyone seems to be worried about might be working itself out in real time, without the disaster everyone keeps predicting.

Keep looking forward.

 

 

HOUSEKEEPING:

Thank you to all those who attended the Jacquie’s Post January Zoom Monthly Meeting on Saturday– the first one of the year, and thank you to those who emailed me and sent in their apologies for missing the meeting.  Appreciate it.  The recording will be sent out this week.

 

 

Cheers

Jacquie