February 18, 2026

 

(TO UNDERSTAND WHAT THE FUTURE HOLDS, WE NEED TO DELVE INTO HISTORY)

 

February 18, 2026

 

Hello everyone

 

WEEK AHEAD CALENDAR

Monday, Feb. 16

NYSE closed for Presidents Day

 

Tuesday, Feb. 17

8:30 a.m. Empire State Index (February)

10 a.m. NAHB Housing Market Index (February)

Earnings:  EQT, Devon Energy, Cadence Design Systems, Palo Alto Networks, Kenvue, FirstEnergy, Expand Energy, Builders FirstSource, Genuine Parts, Labcorp Holdings, Leidos Holdings, Vulcan Materials, DTE Energy.

 

Wednesday, Feb. 18

8:30 a.m. Durable Orders preliminary (December)

8:30 a.m.  Housing Starts (December)

9:15 a.m. Capacity Utilization (January)

9:15 a.m. Industrial Production (January)

2:00 pm FOMC Minutes

Earnings: CF Industries, Edison International, Carvana, Molson Coors Beverage, Booking Holdings, Texas Pacific Land, Occidental Petroleum, Invitation Homes, Host Hotels & Resorts, DoorDash, Verisk Analytics, Analog Devices, Insulet, Global Payments.

 

Thursday, Feb. 19

8:30 a.m. Initial Claims (2/14)

8:30 a.m. Philadelphia Fed Index (February)

8:30 a.m. Wholesale Inventories preliminary (December)

10:00 a.m. State Job Openings and Labor Turnover (December)

10:00 a.m. Pending Home Sales (January)

Earnings: Live Nation Entertainment, Newmont, Akamai Technologies, Alliant Energy, Extra Space Storage, Evergy, Quanta Services, CenterPoint Energy, Targa Resources, EPAM Systems, Walmart, Deere.

 

Friday, Feb. 20

8:30 a.m. GDP Chain Price first preliminary (Q4)

8:30 a.m. Personal Consumption Expenditure (December)

8:30 a.m. Personal Income (December)

9:45 a.m. S&P Global PMI Manufacturing preliminary (February)

9:45 a.m. S&P Global PMI Services preliminary (February)

10:00 a.m. Michigan Sentiment final (February)

10:00 a.m. New Home Sales (December)

Earnings: PPL

 

HISTORY IS OUR KEY TO UNDERSTANDING WHAT THE FUTURE HOLDS

Remember when Powell said inflation was “transitory” and how late he was in addressing inflation.  Very swiftly, the overnight lending rate went from near 0 to over 5%.  Even though inflation is on simmer now, I don’t believe we have seen the last of it.  It’s just gone into hiding for now. The jobs market, too, may appear healthy on the surface, but if we dig a little deeper, cracks are starting to appear. 

The revolution in AI will change the landscape of employment.  None of us will be immune to this.  It will be a huge change, and unfortunately, most of the population is oblivious to the changes that will take place within the next five years.  For example, let’s take entry-level jobs in many white-collar industries.  Do you think human beings will be doing that labour? And what about Uber/Lyft drivers and factory jobs?  Whatever can be automated will be, and if a robot can do your job, you will probably be sidelined.  An efficiency push will see increased productivity and lower-cost outputs for companies.  The financial cost for people will be large, not to mention the psychological cost – the notions of “my job gave my life meaning – what am I to do now, and how on earth will I be able to learn these new skills?” may translate into anger, resentment, and backlash against the AI revolution.  Lack of meaning and purpose in people’s lives can lead to mental health problems, which could be widespread unless the government and private industry groups prepare the working population for what is to come.  Education and reskilling are key.

Like the Industrial Revolution, the AI revolution will represent seismic, foundational shifts in how humanity operates, moving from manual and mental labour to automation and artificial intelligence.  This will change work, social structures, and economic growth.

We know that steam and electricity replaced muscle power in manufacturing.  AI will have a similar effect in that it will automate cognitive tasks, impacting both blue-collar and white-collar work.

The Industrial Revolution resulted in a massive economic expansion.  AI is expected to produce a similar boost to global GDP, with estimates suggesting up to $16 trillion in contributions by 2030.

 

 

MARKET UPDATE

S&P500

The index has been undergoing an extended period of ranging, which may be part of a topping formation.  In the short term, this ranging behaviour can continue.  Momentum appears to be slowing.  Nevertheless, we cannot rule out the possibility that the market could overshoot to the upside before rolling over. 

Resistance:  6880 area and 6990

Support:  6780, 6750 area, 6695, 6590

 

GOLD

The shiny metal has been ranging as it unwinds volatility.  Moves in both directions are likely to be quite sizeable.  At the moment, we face extremes.

Resistance: 5120 area and 5335 zone.

Support: 4770, 4650.

 

BITCOIN

Bitcoin is still consolidating from the February 6 low at around 60k.  There does not seem to be any confirmation of an important low thus far, so the long-term bear view remains in place (for now). 

It is worth noting, however, that one more push to the downside could argue a more significant bottom may be in place – at least for a few months.

As I showed you in the January monthly zoom meeting, long-term support is just below that 60k area (at the intersection of the 200MA)

Resistance:  71k, 74k area, and 78/79k zone.

Support:  64/65k area and 57/58k zone

 

WHAT’S ON MY RADAR

 

 

I’m now watching the Dow, S&P500, and the Nasdaq for signs of a top.  A large correction probably would retrace part of the entire long-term advance.  And this means the scale of the decline could be significant.

With markets, there is no 100% certainty.  We can only work with probability, and this changes as the markets move.  But preparation is always better than reaction.

It looks like the DJIA is close to a top, although it still could nudge higher into the 52,000-zone area. 

We cannot know if it has already topped.  We do not guess.  Rather, we focus on risk management and positioning.

Once a top does form, we could see a very large correction, which could bring the DJIA down toward 36,000 or even lower, depending on future conditions.

Similarly, the Nasdaq could also take a big tumble.  A first target could be around 22,300.

Across all three major indices – the technical structure suggests increasing risk.

Momentum on higher time frames has started to weaken.  Market breadth is not as strong as in earlier stages of the bull market.  Fewer stocks are leading the advance, which is typical behaviour near important tops.

From an Elliott Wave standpoint, Elliott Wave International – one of the largest and most recognized Elliott Wave research firms globally – has also indicated that US stocks may be near a major peak.

When long-term wave counts align with weakening momentum and narrowing breadth, the probability of a large correction increases.

If we consider the macro environment, it also argues for caution. Policy rates are still much higher than the 2010’s, which tends to reduce liquidity and makes equity valuations more sensitive to bad news.

Valuations, especially in parts of large-cap growth/tech, remain elevated by several common measures.

At the same time, market leadership has been narrow with a smaller group of stocks driving index performance – often a late-cycle feature that can weaken the market’s internal strength.

Now, we must note that all the above does not guarantee a crash will happen.  What it does do, however, is raise the probability that the next major correction, if it starts, can be deeper and last longer than typical pullbacks.

I did send you a list of bear-put option spreads.  In the very near term, I will send out some LEAPS, which will make money should this bear market begin.

 

This is a three-month chart of Microsoft (MSFT). (I sold this stock in our portfolio last year before the April correction). We can see that it is showing major weakness. The RSI is showing an obvious divergence, and volume has dropped away.  We could now be correcting an extended move, and it is possible that a move of more than 50% could be seen from here.  If this does happen, it would take place over many months or even a year or more. So, LEAPS would be a good strategy to use here.  If we do get a good rally, I will set one up and send it out.  I am also looking at other tech stocks as well.  The stock is currently above $400.  This view is invalidated if the price can reclaim and hold above $490.

 

 

I am watching Strategy as Bitcoin continues to seek lower lows.  I have shown here the projected upside targets (the Fib levels) when the strategy does finally turn (if only for a few months).  You can also see that momentum indicators are at extreme lows.  After a bounce, Strategy could fall to a low of around $75.   Just watching, for now.

 

 

I am also watching Cipher Mining.  Cipher Mining (CIFR) is a U.S. technology company that develops and operates industrial-scale data centers focusing on a hybrid approach of Bitcoin mining and high-performance computing for AI applications. 

The 12-month price target is $25.43.  The average price target is $38.00 – giving a forecasted upside of 57.97% from the current price of $16.10.

An average of 12 analysts rate it as a Buy/Strong Buy.

(CIFR) owns 1,500 Bitcoin as of September 20, 2025.

After a long period of accumulation, the stock surged to the upside and has since come back to rest on the 0.5% Fib level, which is being solidly respected thus far.  The RSI (momentum indicator) has also digested the big stock move and is now resting around mid-range.

You can also see that volume has recently started to pick up again.  If the stock can stay above that last low around the $13/14 zone, then this looks like a good trade/buy.

 

HISTORY CORNER

On February 16

 

 

 

QI CORNER

Richard Siaw (CFA – Thematic Megatrend Strategist)

Ever notice how markets get jittery whenever a new Fed Chair takes over? History shows it’s not just nerves—the data backs it up.

Volatility spike: A leadership change adds an uncertainty premium as investors figure out how the new Chair will tackle inflation, growth, and financial risks.

Historical pattern: The S&P 500 has averaged about a 16% drawdown within six months of a new Chair’s appointment.

Recent example: After Kevin Warsh was nominated in 2026, the dollar strengthened sharply while equities and precious metals sold off.

Communication matters: Market swings during Powell’s press conferences were roughly three times higher than under his predecessors.

A new Fed Chair doesn’t guarantee a market downturn, but it often marks the start of a “testing phase” as investors gauge the new policy stance.

The coming months will reveal whether markets grow comfortable with continuity or brace for a different kind of Fed leadership.

 

 

 

SOMETHING TO THINK ABOUT

David Bird (B. Ed. CFTe) Founder of Mastering the Markets

Be careful when forecasts cluster.

That’s usually when risk is highest.

 

 

Craig Tapping (MBA) Head Educator & Analyst at Mastering the Markets

Most people come into trading thinking they’re just learning charts, indicators, or strategies.

They’re not.

They’re learning themselves.

Every level up in trading costs something.

You lose old habits like overtrading, chasing pumps, or needing constant action.
You lose emotional attachments to being “right.”
Sometimes you even lose friendships when your priorities change.
And you definitely lose versions of yourself that relied on hope instead of process.

That’s not failure.

That’s evolution.
Real progression in trading looks like this:

• Replacing impulse with patience
• Replacing opinions with data
• Replacing excitement with discipline
• Replacing FOMO with structure
• Replacing ego with risk management

At first, it feels uncomfortable. Lonely at times. Even boring.

That’s because you are shedding the retail mindset and stepping into a professional one.

Most people quit right here.

They mistake the loss of old behaviours for something going wrong, when in reality, something is finally going right.

Trading is not about finding the perfect indicator.

It is about becoming the type of person who can follow a plan, manage risk, sit through uncertainty, and stay emotionally neutral when money is on the line.

Every serious trader goes through this phase.

You outgrow chaos.
You outgrow noise.
You outgrow needing validation.

And one day you realise you did not lose anything.

You evolved.

If learning the markets feels uncomfortable right now, good.

That means you are moving forward.

 

 

 

Cheers

Jacquie