Jacque's Post
August 1, 2025
(SUMMARY OF JOHN’S JULY 30, 2025, WEBINAR)
August 1, 2025
Hello everyone
TITLE – The Dog Days of Summer
DINNER: August 22, 2025, Lake Tahoe Dinner. Tickets: go to Luncheons on John’s site to purchase. $249.00/ticket.
TRADE ALERT PERFORMANCE
July = +5.21% MTD
2025 YTD = +50.38%
Trailing One Year Return = 101.88%
Average Annualised Return = +51.53%
Since Inception = +802.27%
PORTFOLIO REVIEW
Risk Off
(TSLA) 8/$370 -$380 put spread (10%)
Risk On
(added Thursday July 31) (FCX) 8/$34-$37 bull call spread at $2.70 or best). Outlook for copper long-term is very good.
THE METHOD TO MY MADNESS
Stocks are now at very high-risk levels due to increasingly unstable world.
AI is the big leader, but the risk/reward here is terrible with Volatility Index at 14.
Bonds approaching 2025 lows, yields new highs.
The new budget bill passed a $5 trillion debt ceiling increase.
Safety assets like gold, silver, and T-bills are flat lining with crypto bleeding off speculative capital.
Oil is still dead-on recession fears and OPEC market share battle
US dollar hits new four-year lows.
Bitcoin hits new all-time high at $123.000
THE GLOBAL ECONOMY – FLATLINING
US Q2 GDP Growth Rate grows by 0.75%, with almost all of the growth coming from collapsing imports.
Domestic demand grew at the slowest rate in two and a half years.
Fed Beige Book turns pessimistic, with businesses reporting that tariffs caused upward pressure on prices.
Inflation rises in June by 0.1$ to 0.3%, to a 2.7% annual rate.
Producer Price Index comes in flat, taking the annual rate down to 2.3%.
US Retail Sales pop, in a rush to beat price increases.
S&P Global Composite PMI rises to 54.6, highest since December.
US Fertility hits all-time low, according to the CDC at 1.66 children per couple, well below the 2.18 replacement rate.
China’s economy grows by 5.2% in Q2.
STOCKS – NO MAN’S LAND
Up 26% in four months is not a place to buy.
But with trillions of dollars in government money about to hit the market you can’t sell short either.
A Stock Rotation but Not a Selloff? That’s what the Bank of America thinks is happening this summer. Out of tech, into interest sensitives like banks, small caps, homebuilders, bonds and REITS.
Stock Market Momentum is stalling. U.S. stocks are trading near record highs heading into the thick of the second-quarter earnings season.
But with markets historically expensive and reliant on the performance of tech stocks, some investors are starting to embrace a more cautious outlook.
Speculative activity hits the highest level in history, greater than the Dotcom Bubble and2 2008 Financial Crisis, says Goldman Sachs.
Meme Stocks are back! OpenDoor rocketed 235% in a week and Kohs (KSS) 38% in a day.
Trade war cuts $1 billion out of GM earnings.
Historic Market concentration bodes ill for future gains.
Stay the course on nuclear plays – (CCJ) and (SMR)
(UPS) is a good recession indicator – the fall in the stock shows population is shifting less.
JOHN’S SUPPORT ZONES FOR THE S&P 500
BONDS – DIGESTION PROBLEM
Bonds appear stuck on the bottom.
$5 trillion in new government borrowing is overhanging the market.
But future interest rate cuts are beckoning.
No chance for July, but September or December are 50/50 probabilities.
Bonds hate the national debt at $42 trillion and are approaching 2025 lows in prices, highs in yields.
Bond investors are moving away from longer-dated Treasuries.
National debt service has topped defence spending for the first time in history and defence spending just jumped by 25%.
Avoid (TLT), (JNK), (NLY), (SLRN), and REITS
FOREIGN CURRENCIES – NO DOLLAR FRIENDS
U.S. dollar hits four year low, as the “Sell America” trade continues.
We may see another 20% move down as Fed interest rates cuts loom.
If rates drop 300 basis points with the next Fed governor as Trump has promised the dollar is toast.
Populist Japanese election win tanks Yen.
Next dollar weakness will come with evidence of a recession in days.
Buy (FXA), (FXE), (FXB), (FXC), and (FXY)
ENERGY & COMMODITIES – DEAD IN THE WATER
Oil is going nowhere on recession fears.
US drillers cut rigs for 10th week, or the first time since July 2020, thanks to a flobal oil glut.
OPEC increases production by 550,000 barrels a day.
Budget bill kills effort to restore strategic Petroleum Reserve cutting the funding by 90%.
US Crude Inventories hit one year low.
Look for energy plays to hit new lows.
Copper hits new all-time high on 50% tariff.
Nuclear plays are still hot with deregulation tailwind.
PRECIOUS METALS- CONSOLIDATING
Bitcoin breakout is stealing gold’s thunder.
Speculative money is chasing new highs in crypto plays at the expense of gold.
Traders have been rolling out of hedges as stocks rise.
Silver hits new high for the year.
(AGQ) 2X LEAPS hit max profit.
$50 silver is a long-term target.
$5000 = long-term gold target.
REAL ESTATE – INTEREST RATE HOPES
New Home Sales come in weak, as builders’ heavier use of sales incentives failed to motivate buyers put off by high costs.
Contract signings on new single-family homes increased 0.6% to an annualized rate of 627,000 last month.
June’s results show US homebuilders are struggling to offset an ugly mix of high prices and borrowing costs by offering incentives and subsidizing customers’ mortgage rates.
Existing home sales drop 2.7% in June, to an annualized rate of 3.93 million units.
Sales are unchanged YOY on a closing basis.
Some 1.35 million units are for sale, up 15.9% in a year, a 4.7 month suppkly.
The median price of a home sold is $435,000, up 2% YOY.
Houses are spending 27 days on the market, with the first-time buyers at 30%.
TRADE SHEET
Stocks – stand aside
Bonds – sell rallies
Commodities – buy dips
Currencies – buy dips
Precious Metals – buy dips
Energy – stand aside
Volatility – sell over $30
Real Estate – buy dips
NEXT STRATEGY WEBINAR
12:00 EST Wednesday August 13, 2025, from Incline Village, NV.
Cheers
Jacquie
