Jacque's Post
August 29, 2025
(SUMMARY OF JOHN’S AUGUST 27, 2025, WEBINAR)
August 29, 2025
Hello everyone
TITLE: Leading with your Chin
THE MAD HEDGE TRADERS & INVESTORS SUMMIT
September 9-11, 9:00 am – 5:00 pm EST
A variety of trading strategies in all asset classes, including commodities, precious metals, and energy, will be presented by the best trading minds in the world.
$100,000 in free prizes awarded to those who register.
Attendance is FREE.
PERFORMANCE:
-0.34% MTD.
+93.74% Trailing One-Year Return
+51.32% Average Annualised Return
+52.09% 2025 Year to Date
+803.98% Since Inception
PORTFOLIO:
No Positions.
After John’s webinar, he sent out this trade alert.
JP Morgan (JPM) September 19, 2025 $270-$280 in the money vertical bull call spread at $8.80 or best.
THE METHOD TO MY MADNESS:
Stocks are now at very high-risk levels due to an increasingly unstable world.
Fed governor Jay Powell may have hinted at an interest rate cut last week, or maybe he didn’t.
Bonds are still trapped in a narrow range, and long bonds are shunned.
Economic data is deteriorating everywhere.
Gold has been stuck in a five-month flat line.
Oil is still dead, on recession fears and OPEC market share battle.
US dollar is still weakening.
Bitcoin has lost upside momentum.
THE GLOBAL ECONOMY – SHRINKING
Jay Powell surprises with a perceived lean towards an interest rate cut in September.
Fed Minutes come in neutral, with no immediate demand for an interest rate cut at their most recent meeting six weeks ago.
PPI comes in hot, with a 0.9% gain in July. US wholesale inflation accelerated in July by the most in three years.
Consumer sentiment dives, down to 58.6, a four-month low.
Dollar tanks on Powell speech.
Manufacturing flash PMI comes in Red Hot, at 55.2, a 39-month high.
The Labor force is shrinking due to mass deportations and Hispanics hiding from ICE.
CPI rises at 0.2% and 2.7% on a YOY basis.
STOCKS – GOING NOWHERE
Computers are Bulls, while Humans are Bears.
Big Tech has topped out, with fears of a major market sell-off if the Fed doesn’t cut interest rates.
MIT tanks the market, the August university publishing a report claiming that 95% of companies using AI lose money.
Sales of foreign-branded cell phones in China plunge 31.3%, a fallout from the trade war.
Is AI worth $16 trillion? Companies could accrue annual net benefits totalling some $920 billion a year.
UnitedHealthcare (UNH) rockets on news of Buffett’s involvement.
Novo Nordisk cuts Ozempic price by half, to $499 for cash buyers.
Exxon to develop Russian Oil Resources.
US government to take 10% stake in Intel (INTC).
Amazon launches same-day delivery of meat, eggs, and produce.
Administration hits Nvidia and AMD with 15% export tax.
With the change in management, Boeing (BA) could now be a buy.
BONDS- TRAPPED IN A RANGE
S&P maintains US AA+ rating, keeping the downgrade from AAA after a massive increase in government borrowing, up 14% in a year.
The ratings agency expected the Federal Reserve to navigate the challenges of lowering domestic inflation and addressing financial market vulnerabilities.
Subprime is back! The average contract interest rate for 5/1 ARMs (adjustable-rate mortgages) decreased to 5.80% from 6.06%.
ARM loans are generally fixed for a term but then adjust to market rates, making them riskier products.
If Fed interest rate cuts don’t also produce lower long-term rates, expect a massive flight into ARM borrowing.
That’s where the borrower takes the interest rate risk, not the lender.
The US is the only country that offers 30-year loans, and the administration is proposing to end Fannie Mae and Freddie Max, the federal agencies that make those possible.
Avoid (TLT), (JNK), (NLY), (SLRN), and REITS
FOREIGN CURRENCIES – STAB IN THE BACK
Powell’s speech stabs the US dollar in the back, as the “Sell America” trade continues.
Fed interest rate cuts will cut the dollar off at the knees.
We may see another 20% move down as Fed interest rate cuts loom.
With the dollar down 15% again, this effectively doubles imported inflation to a 30% rate, sending prices through the roof and demolishing the US economy.
Next dollar weakness will come with evidence of a recession.
Buy (FXA), (FXE), (FXB), (FXC), and (FXY)
ENERGY & COMMODITIES – BOUNCING ALONG A BOTTOM
Oil is going nowhere on recession fears and the OPEC market share war.
US Drillers cut rigs for 12th week, or the first time since July 2020, thanks to a global oil glut.
OPEC increases production by 550,000 barrels a day.
U.S. crude inventories hit a one-year low.
Look for energy plays to hit new lows.
Nuclear plays are still hot with a deregulation tailwind.
So are electric utilities.
PRECIOUS METALS
Gold has flat lines just short of a new all-time high for five months now, a very bullish setup.
Only a 40% year-on-year gain is holding it back.
Gold will take off like a rocket once the Fed cuts interest rates.
A sudden 50% tariff came and went in three days.
Bitcoin has lost its upside momentum, which is very gold positive.
Silver is also poised to hit new highs for the year.
Silver target = $50
Gold target = $5,000
REAL ESTATE – PRICE FALLS
Housing is seeing its first year-on-year price falls in many years.
Existing Home Sales rise 2% in July to a seasonally adjusted 4.01 million units. Sales were up 0.8% YOY.
Some 1.55 million homes are for sale, up 15.77% YOY, and represent a 4.6-month supply.
The median price of a home is $422,400, up only 0.2% YOY.
First buyers were 28%, while all cash buyers were a near record 31%.
Housing starts rise, with single-family housing starts up 2.8% in July, the Census Bureau reports. Thirty-year fixed-rate mortgages hit their lowest level since October.
Housing starts come in at 1,428,000 in July.
Homebuilder sentiment hits three-year low.
TRADE SHEET
Stocks – buy interest rate sensitive
Bonds – sell rallies
Commodities – buy dips
Currencies – buy dips
Precious Metals – buy dips
Energy – stand aside
Volatility – sell over $30
Real Estate – stand aside
NEXT STRATEGY WEBINAR
12:00 EST September 17, 2025
From Incline Village, NV.
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Please Note: I’ll be sending out invitation Zoom links to Jacquie’s post-August monthly meeting over the weekend. The meeting will be held early next week.
Cheers
Jacquie
