Jacque's Post
December 12, 2025
(SUMMARY OF JOHN’S DECEMBER 10, 2025, WEBINAR)
December 12, 2025
Hello everyone
TITLE – ‘Special Christmas Issue’
TRADE ALERT PERFORMANCE
December = +2.66%
2025 YTD = +62.02%
Since inception = +813.59%
Trailing One Year Return = +63.86%
Average Annualised Return = +50.72%
PORTFOLIO
(MS) 12/$150-$160 call spread (profit taken)
(GLD)12/$350-$360 call spread
No Risk Off positions.
THE METHOD TO MY MADNESS
The year-end rally is done, with crypto hitting a short-term bottom for now.
The market still has two big overhangs: the Fed interest rate decision on December 10 and the Supreme Court Tariff decision.
Bonds are dead in the water on $42 trillion National Debt overhang, and $42 trillion if the tariffs fail.
The long-term bull arguments of super liquidity, AI, and falling interest rates are still the market drivers.
Jobs data remains dire.
Silver hit a new high, and gold is just behind.
Huge oil oversupply weighs heavily on prices in 2026.
US Dollar hits new multi-month lows in line with rate cuts.
Bitcoin plumbs year lows.
GLOBAL ECONOMY – Sliding
Fed decision in one hour could go either way. The government has held back inflation data. Buy the rumour, sell the fact.
ADP loses 32,000 jobs in November, almost entirely by small businesses, which are getting wiped out by tariffs.
Consumer sentiment improves. The University of Michigan’s Surveys of Consumers said its Consumer Sentiment index increased to 53.3 this month from a final reading of 51.0 in November.
Core PCE decelerates for the first time since April.
Layoffs continue unabated, and planned job cuts declined to 71, 321 last month from October.
US Services PMI comes in flat; little changed at 52.6 last month from 52.4 in October.
ISM Manufacturing PMI comes in at 48.5, a five-month low. The economy is clearly slowing.
STOCKS – TOPPING OUT!
Stocks catch fire on Fed comments on Friday, November 28.
A massive, short cover is ignited.
Interest-sensitive financials become the overwhelming leaders, clocking gains of 10% – 20%.
Bitcoin struggles to forge a bottom.
Bitcoin treasury stock, Strategy (MSTR), was down 65% at the bottom.
CrowdStrike (CRWD) gets trashed on weak guidance.
Nvidia (NVDA) can sell H20 chips to China with a 25% export tax payable to the US.
Is US national security for sale with China the highest bidder?
Technical programs have the (SPY) and Dow Average topping out from here.
Expect volume and volatility to spring from here as the “A” teams take off on Friday for the year.
S&P500 Support Zones
1st support = $650
2nd support =$630
BONDS – COLLAPSE!
Bonds see worst week in six months, discounting record borrowings.
Ten-year US Treasury yields hit 4.18% and could be headed to 4.40%.
“Crowding out” will become the most overused term of 2026 as the government, AI, and M&A compete for increasingly scarce funds.
The Warner Bros. deal alone is demanding $100 billion in debt.
The real estate recovery is forestalled once again and will be the big loser.
CURRENCIES
US dollar down for 10th straight day, as Fed interest rate cuts loom thanks to the continuing dire jobs data.
US dollar faces a prolonged decline, off the back of the coming Fed interest rate cuts.
We may see another 20% move down as more Fed interest rate cuts loom.
Next dollar weakness will come with evidence of more rate cuts.
Emerging markets (EEM) have been the best currency play of 2025, up 40% at high.
Buy (FXA), (FXE), (FXB), (FXC), and (FXY)
ENERGY & COMMODITIES
Traders have been ramping up copper shipments to the US in recent weeks to once again capitalize on a big premium for the red metal on New York’s Comex exchange, fueled by ongoing uncertainty about the potential for future tariffs.
UD Oil Rigs count hit a four-year low.
The oil and gas rig count, an early indicator of future output, fell by 10 to 544 in the week to November 26, the lowest since September.
2026 will be a blowout year for copper.
A rush to ship metal to the U.S. risks draining the rest of the world’s inventories.
Buy (FCX) on dips.
PRECIOUS METALS
Silver hits yet another new high, at an incredible $58.65 an ounce.
The shite gold has doubled in 2025.
Barrick Gold is discussing a break-up.
Despite the run-up in gold prices this year, Barrick’s share price has lagged its rivals due to setbacks at its mine in Mali – three fatal accidents, falling gold production, and rising costs.
(B) Became the world’s largest gold miner in 2018 when it took over Randgold Resources.
But the cost of mining has risen faster than the price, squeezing margins.
REAL ESTATE- OUT OF SEASON
Pending Home sales rise by 1.9% in October.
Apartment rents are falling as vacancies hit record highs.
It’s due to an oversupply of new units and a slowdown in demand, especially from younger renters.
This has led to record-high vacancy rates and the fourth consecutive month-over-month rent decline nationally.
Median rents hit $1,367 in November 2025, according to Apartment List.
The steepest declines have been seen in markets with high levels of new construction, such as some cities in the Sun Belt, while other areas with more limited supply have performed better.
TRADE SHEET
Stocks – buy interest rate sensitives
Bonds – stand aside
Commodities – buy dips
Currencies – buy dips
Precious Metals – buy dips
Energy – stand aside
Volatility – sell over $30
Real estate – by dips
NEXT STRATEGY WEBINAR
12:00 EST Wednesday, January 7, 2026
From Incline Village, NV.
Last Webinar of the Year
Cheers
Jacquie
