December 19, 2025

 

(WHAT MIGHT WE SEE IN 2026?)

 

December 19, 2025

 

Hello everyone

 

2026 is stacking up to be anything but dull.  A lot of choppiness and volatility will be with us in the first half of the year.  In other words, quite a lot of consolidation after three back-to-back years of strong equity gains.

 

S&P500

We should see a rally in the final couple of weeks of 2025, which will probably extend into late January/February.  Then, from late February until the 3rdQ, we could see a 20 per cent correction. (A bounce in the summer is possible).  Bottom out in October.  We should finish the year on a positive note.

Sell-off targets in S&P500 = 5,600 to 5,800.

2026 year- end target = 7,300 – 7,500 +

 

STOCKS TO WATCH

Tesla – targets = 650/700

Google – buy dips on (GOOGL) in the next few days

 

SECTORS TO FAVOUR IN 2026

Industrials

Financials

Utilities

Energy

Technology should consolidate until around mid-year and then rebound into year-end.

 

US DOLLAR

The dollar could strengthen from late January into mid-year before peaking.

 

US TREASURY YIELDS

There is a likelihood that yields strengthen from January until mid-year.

 

STOCK MARKET CYCLES

Based on the 41-month cycle made popular by Edward Dewey, we could see SPX weakening in 2026 before bottoming out.  Consider it a reset.

 

SMALL-CAPS

In early 2026, small caps could outperform SPX following a relative and absolute breakout in (IWM) during the Fed’s rate-cutting cycle. 

(We have two (IWM) option spreads expiring this Friday, 19 December.  Recommended on June 9 when (IWM) was at $209.03.

Options spreads = $215/$225 at $4.33 or best and $215/$220 at $2.32 or best.  Many of you who took these trades may have already taken profits. 

 

EMERGING MARKETS

This sector is likely to outperform in 2026.  The dollar bounce early in 2026 is likely to trend lower in the latter part of 2026 – possibly making new lows.

Mexico, South Korea, and China are favoured.

 

VALUE OR GROWTH

In the first half of 2026, value is likely to be favoured.  However, growth will probably resume its strength and outperform in the latter half of the year and into 2028.

 

COMMODITIES

The recent breakout in the Bloomberg Commodity Index indicates that commodities should outperform in 2026.  Look for bullish trends in crude oil, grains, coffee, and gold (following some consolidation).

 

Crude Oil – bullish beginning in around February.  (XOM, CVX) Crude Oil could fall to around 4650 initially in the first part of the year.  Buy the dip.

MID-TERM ELECTION YEAR

Cycles show weakness in the first half of 2026, which aligns with the traditionally weak mid-term election year cycle.

 

SENTIMENT

Despite robust equity gains and strong earnings, sentiment was on the back burner for most of 2025.  With the possibility of a weakening market in the first half of 2026, fear will probably become heightened, which could provide a buying opportunity as the new Fed chair is nominated.

 

CRYPTOCURRENCIES

Coins could still weaken/consolidate in the first half of 2026.  Buying opportunity in the second half of the year.  From October 2026 to 2027/2028, we should see rallies in Bitcoin. 

Bitcoin – Sell off in the first half of 2026.  Could target 60/65 by mid-year.  Then a rally to around 135/150.  Then we should see consolidation in crypto. 

ETH – Rally early in the year to around 3800/4000, then maybe weakness to around 1750 – 2000. Following that low, we should see a strong rally to all-time highs around the 4500-5500 level.

 

OPTIONS SPREADS

We have a few bull call option spreads due to expire on February 20, 2026.

These include:

(UEC) 13/14, 14/15

(VRT) 185/190

(RBLX) 110/115

(HOOD) 135/145

(GDX) 83/85

(TSM) 310/320

 

SIGNING OFF ON 2025

I believe I recommended around 18 option spread trades this year, and many recommendations to buy stock.

The 2025 return for the Jacquie’s Post stock portfolio will be crunched during the holiday break.  The result will be shared in January.

I will be taking a much-needed break for the next few weeks over the holiday period.  It’s time to rest and recharge.

You will continue to receive newsletters during my break – these will be past Posts.  Some are worth re-reading. 

I wish you all a very happy and healthy holiday period.  Thank you for your support.

 

I look forward to guiding you in 2026.

Many blessings.

Cheers

Jacquie