Jacque's Post
February 13, 2026
(SUMMARY OF JOHN’S FEBRUARY 11, 2026, WEBINAR)
February 13, 2026
Hello everyone
TITLE – Icebergs Ahead
TRADE PERFORMANCE
February MTD = +0.25%
Trailing One Year Return = 59.06%
Average Annualised Return = +50.48%
Since Inception = +816.18%
PORTFOLIO
No Positions
(John says it is too risky for trading, and notes that only beginners would be trading this market)
BIG RISKS FOR THE MARKET
All good news for the market for 2026 may already be in the price.
The recent feeble performance of the S&P is the “Tell” here.
What is known: Tax cuts, coming ultra dovish Fed governor, falling interest rates, massive government spending financed by record borrowing, AI improvements to cost-cutting and profitability for big companies.
What isn’t known:
The next dozen black swans, the next government interference with the stock market.
Problem: market moves on what is unknown, not what is known.
THE METHOD TO MY MADNESS
With a government shutdown, a Supreme Court decision, and a Fed rate decision imminent, markets have stalled at high levels.
All precious and base metals retreat from extreme overbought levels.
Bonds are dead in the water on a $42 trillion National Debt overhang, and $45 trillion if the tariffs fail.
The long-term bull arguments of super liquidity, AI, and falling interest rates are still the market drivers, but much is already in the price.
Jobs data remains dire.
Huge oil oversupply weighs heavily on prices in 2026.
US dollar hits new multi-year lows in line with coming rate cuts.
Bitcoin crashes, falling to $58,000 as whales bail on the asset.
THE GLOBAL ECONOMY – SOLID GROWTH?
Fed leaves interest rates unchanged. Reference was made of “Solid growth in the Economy.”
January Nonfarm Payroll comes in at 120,000, down 50% YOY, headline unemployment rate at 4.3%.
Delayed Nonfarm Payroll for January.
U.S. retail sales stall for Christmas.
Consumer delinquencies hit a decade high on loans rising to 4.8% of all outstanding US household debt.
U.S. Business Inventories Increased.
Consumer Inflation Expectations hit six months low at 3.1%.
Layoffs hit a 17-year high.
STOCKS
US Equity Fund Inflows Plunge.
There’s a slow-motion crash underway, with technology stocks seeing their biggest two-day drop since April.
Coca-Cola drops, as the weight loss trend cuts sales.
Cleveland Cliffs dives 24%.
Stellantis Shares dive 24%, after a massive $26.5 billion EV write-down.
Shipping Companies are Getting Torpedoed, with the collapse of international trade leading to structural overcapacity.
SpaceX buys xAI for $1.2 trillion, in the largest merger in history.
Rare Earth stocks jump on Trump $12 billion stockpile proposal.
Where is the bottom for software stocks? After Microsoft 12% sell off last week and SAP’s 19%.
Southwest Dumps Open Seating Plan.
(John notes that subscribers should look at Microsoft (MSFT), Palo Alto Networks (PANW), and Snowflake (SNOW) for buys.
(John says the bottom for Bitcoin is 0. Whales say the game is over.
Netflix (NFLX) is entangled in litigation wars.
Boeing (BA) LEAPS candidate
Support Zones for the S&P500
1st support = $675
2nd support = $660
BONDS- ASLEEP
Bonds are still trapped in a six-month trading range.
Conservative win in Japan election means faster yen carry trade unwind.
It rattles the world because a lot of financing was done in a formerly low-interest-rate world. It all shows how record debts = a global problem.
It all underlines the global nature of the excessive debt problem.
Massive new US debt issues are about to hit the market.
Avoid all long debt plays.
(3.65% yield on 90-day T-bills)
FOREIGN CURRENCIES
Trump comments on currencies – trash the US dollar.
This prompts ballistic moves up in (FXA), (FXE), (FXB), (EEM), and even the (FXY)
These are all Mad Hedge long-term recommendations.
The comments signal that there will be no future efforts by the FED to collapse the greenback.
Those European vacations are getting more expensive by the day.
Sell all dollar rallies.
Buy (FXA), (FXE), (FXB), (FXC), and (FXY)
ENERGY & COMMODITIES – CUBA
Schlumberger (SLB) wins $1.5 billion Kuwait contract.
The administration is using an oil embargo to strangle the Cuban economy.
Oil exports to Cuba from Mexico, Venezuela, Russia, and India have been cut off.
The result may be a flood of new Cuban refugees headed for the US.
If the Ukraine War ends, huge Russian inventories will get dumped on the market, crushing pricing.
Venezuela is now producing 800,000 barrels a day.
It could produce 4 million barrels a day.’
PRECIOUS METALS
After hitting extreme highs, the biggest selloff in the history of the precious metals markets strikes traders.
Selloff came with Warsh nomination as Fed governor.
Risk of higher long rates is also a major trigger.
Enormous amounts of over-leverage have been wiped out.
The bull market is now dead, – now resting.
Gold may still look expensive, but everything else is worse.
Expect gold to consolidate around current levels, possibly for months, then take a run at new highs.
Buy all precious metals and miners on dips.
(John says to hold on to gold and silver – may see an extra 20% this year.)
REAL ESTATE – STAGNANT
Mortgage rates over 6.0% still a major drag on the housing market.
Trump attacks the real estate sector by threatening an antitrust suit against new homebuilders.
New homebuilders account for less than 10% of the housing market, existing homes the rest.
Rocket Companies (RKT) mortgage origination hits a four-year high.
Credit card debt at a record $1.28 trillion isn’t helping prospective borrowers who can’t qualify for loans.
REVIEW
Stocks – stand aside
Bonds – stand aside
Commodities – buy dips
Currencies – buy dips
Precious Metals – buy dips
Energy – buy dips
Volatility – sell over $30
Real Estate – buy dips
NEXT WEBINAR
12:00 EST Wednesday, February 25, 2026
From Lima, Peru
Jacquie’s Post Trades that Expire Feb. 20 (next week) – Just in case you haven’t taken profits yet.
(UEC) 13/14 at $0.33 and 14/15 at $0.15 bull call spreads
(VRT)185/190 at $1.87
(RBLX) 110/115 at $1.97 (underwater)
(HOOD) 135/145 (underwater)
(GDX) 83/85 at $0.70
(TSM) 310/320 at $3.91
(CAT) 620/630 at $4.52
Cheers
Jacquie
