February 2, 2026

 

THE EMPLOYMENT ICE AGE IS ROLLING SLOWLY TOWARDS US

 

February 2, 2026

 

Hello everyone

WEEK AHEAD CALENDAR

Monday, February 2

9:45 a.m. S&P Global PMI Manufacturing final (January)

10:00 a.m. ISM Manufacturing (January)

Earnings:  Simon Property Group, Palantir Technologies, Healthpeak Properties, Tyson Foods, The Walt Disney Co.

 

Tuesday, February 3

10:00 a.m. JOLTS Job Openings (December)

Earnings:  Prudential Financial, Clorox, Chipotle Mexican Grill, Take-Two Interactive Software, Super Micro Computer, Mondelez International, Electronic Arts, Skyworks Solutions, Amgen, Match Group, Jack Henry & Associates, Emerson electric, Corteva, Atmos Energy, Advanced Micro Devices, Illinois Tool Works, Pfizer, Merck, Marathon Petroleum, Pepsi Co, TransDigm Group, PayPal Holdings, Hubbell, Arch-Daniels-Midlands Co.

 

Wednesday, February 4

8:15 a.m. ADP Employment Survey (January)

9:45 a.m. S&P Global PMI Composite final (January)

10:00 a.m. ISM Services PMI (January)

6:30 p.m. Fed Governor Cook speaks at the Economic Club of Miami on monetary policy and the economic outlook.

Earnings:  O’Reilly Automotive, MetLife, Costco Wholesale, Allstate, McKesson, Aflac, Align Technology, Qualcomm, Alphabet, AvalonBay Communities, Fox Corp, Fortive, Yum! Brands, T.Rowe Price Group, Phillips 66, Old Dominion Freight Line, CME Group, Uber Technologies, Eli Lilly, Equifax, Boston Scientific, GE Healthcare Technologies, Stanley Black & Decker, Cognizant Technology Solutions, AbbVie

 

Thursday, February 5

8:30 a.m. Continuing Jobless Claims (01/24)

8:30 a.m. Initial Claims (01/31)

8:30 a.m. Unit Labor Costs preliminary (Q4)

8:30 a.m. Productivity preliminary (Q4)

Earnings:  Microchip Technology, VeriSign, Fortinet Monolithic Power Systems, Amazon.com, Ventas, Regency Centres, Mettler-Toledo International, Molina Healthcare, Ralph Lauren, Intercontinental Exchange, Huntington Ingalls Industries, Rockwell Automation, IQVIA Holdings, Hershey Fastenal, ConocoPhillips, Bristol Myers Squibb, KKR & Co., Tapestry, The Estee Lauder Companies, Snap-On, Ares Management, Cardinal Health, CMS Energy, News Corp.

 

Friday, February 6

8:30 a.m. January Nonfarm Payrolls Report

10:00 a.m. Michigan Sentiment preliminary (February)

12:00 p.m. Fed Vice Chair Jefferson speaks at the Brookings Institution Conference Supply – Side Factors and Inflation: What Have We learned? Washington, D.C.

3:00 p.m. Consumer Credit (December)

Earnings: Cboe Global Markets, Centene, Philip Morris International, Biogen.

 

THE BRIEF

A couple of Mag Seven stocks will report this week – Alphabet and Amazon – which may help cement the direction of the stock market in the immediate future.  Additionally, we will get a slew of data on the labour market, which will allow us some insight into the state of the economy.

As we heard last week, Amazon’s restructuring saw around 16,000 jobs eliminated.  Add this to the 14,000 jobs that were cut in October last year, and you have about a 10% reduction in headcount in its corporate and tech workforce of roughly 350,000.  Andy Jassy, CEO of Amazon, has been open about the goals and intentions of the company in relation to efficiency gains from AI, which will likely shrink the workforce over the coming years.  No doubt, this will be a theme in many companies as we head into the late 2020’s and into the 2030’s.  To remain competitive in a world dominated by AI, companies will need to evolve, transform, and streamline their processes. 

On Friday, we have the Jobs Report, which is preceded by the Job Openings and Labour Turnover Survey (JOLTS) and the ADP Employment survey.  This will give investors a clearer view of the state of the labour market and how the economy is travelling generally.

Kevin Warsh has been named as the Fed chair nominee to replace Jerome Powell when he steps down in May. He does not seem to be seen as someone who will compromise the independence of the Fed or radically change policy at the behest of President Trump.  He may just toe the line.  But he has been described as a “monetary policy hawk” after signalling support for central bank digital currency frameworks. 

The U.S. is in shutdown mode once again because a planned Senate vote on a funding deal to keep federal agencies open got sidetracked.  It is expected that this shutdown will be short-lived.

How Trump exerts control in the New World Order

Rather than military force, Trump prefers the sphere of influence.  In other words, it’s understood as control without rule.  States within a sphere are sovereign on paper; they have their own government, their own borders, their own money, and they have international recognition.  But their strategic choices are restrained by the great power, and in this case, it’s the United States. 

Under this sphere of influence, the U.S. is saying that countries within its sphere can’t freely choose alliances or trade partners without crossing lines or without getting agreement from the United States.

It appears as a covert form of control, nothing more, nothing less.

The Employment Ice Age

Private investor and former Magellan stock picker Hamish Douglass has warned that artificial intelligence will trigger an employment crisis by 2030 that could devastate Western economies and displace millions of workers.

The Reserve Bank of Australia forecasts unemployment rising to 4.4% in December 2027, its longest dated projection.    It was 4.1% last month.

Douglass sees the AI revolution as a train wreck on the workforce that is happening in slow motion, and sees commercial real estate coming under pressure from lower occupation rates.  However, he does see value in buying staples, utilities, and stock exchanges.  He advises to start thinking defensively and preparing for the economic winter that could last 20 years if governments don’t step in.

Ultimately, Douglass does believe that AI will be positive for humanity, but it could be a long winter before we get there.

 

MARKET UPDATE

S&P500

The index is still making every effort to forge ahead with rallies but is stumbling as it makes it way toward 7000.  There is more scope for this choppy behaviour.  At the present time, upside seems limited, as momentum is slowing.  We would need to see a strong break above 7040 to confirm more upside.

Resistance:  7000, 7040~

Support:  6840, 6780, 6720

 

GOLD

It has been a volatile session in the precious metals sector.  Gold and silver have both plunged from all-time highs. Even now on Monday, while I am typing this, the precious metals are still falling.   I recommended to you last Monday to take profits in (SLV) and (GLD) because the risk was high that a major sell-off would take place. And that’s what we saw late last week.  I am still long-term bullish on both gold and silver.     Now may be the time for the precious metals to rest.  (It is still possible that we see one last surge to the upside before a long rest is seen.  There is also a possibility that it won’t take place.  We must wait and watch the price action.  Seasonally, the precious metals tend to take a rest between February and September~.   But we are still likely to see big swings in both directions as the market digests this volatility.  Stand aside for now.

Resistance: 4945, 5025, 5145

Support:  Gold has fallen through the support level at 4735.  Next major support is around 3887

 

BITCOIN

Bitcoin has fallen through the 80k level and is now sitting around 76,345.00 as I’m typing this.    We could see some consolidation after this move, but that would likely precede further falls towards 70k.

Resistance:  80.3k and 86k~

Support: 74.5k and 70/71k

 

HISTORY CORNER

On February 2^nd

 

 

QI CORNER

Finland has achieved one of the world’s most dramatic reductions in homelessness by adopting a Housing First Policy – providing permanent homes before addressing addiction, employment, or mental health issues.

 

 

SOMETHING TO THINK ABOUT

Marjanul Islam (Researcher & Writer)

🔴 Every time the market crashes, remind yourself of these 7 principles.

1/ We have survived countless wars, pandemics, and natural catastrophes, and yet markets are still functioning well.

2/ Markets never crash; what crashes is the sentiment of market participants. They act emotionally, and later they realize their mistake, and the market goes up again.

3/ Markets never fail, because it is the market that gave us beautiful cities, amazing gadgets, clothing, and vehicles. Markets made modern human civilization possible.

4/ As long as humans have curiosity, we will pursue new things. As we pursue new things, we will invent new products. That is economic growth, and through it we become more prosperous.

5/ We discovered markets to figure out the truth in an economic sense. The market is a dispute-solving mechanism based on voluntary actions from both parties.

The more violence there is, the less the market exists; the more freedom there is, the more the market prospers.

6/ If chimpanzees in the jungle or dolphins in the ocean developed market activity, they too would build a modern civilization like ours, probably over thousands or even millions of years.

7/ Markets stand on the same level as innovations like fire, language, and writing. This means the market is one of the most fundamental innovations of humankind.

And after all, be careful: the market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent.

 

 

 

Cheers

Jacquie