February 23, 2026

(THE ECONOMIC WAR KEEPS GETTING MESSIER)

February 23, 2026

Hello everyone

WEEK AHEAD CALENDAR

Monday, Feb. 23

10:00 a.m. Durable Orders final (December)

10:00 a.m. Factory Orders (December)

Earnings: Keysight Technologies, Diamondback Energy, Domino’s Pizza, Dominion Energy

Tuesday, Feb. 24

9:00 a.m. FHFA Home Price Index

10:00 a.m. Consumer Confidence (February)

10:00 a.m. Wholesale Inventories (December)

9:00 p.m. 2026 State of the Union (SOTU)

Earnings: First Solar, Axon Enterprise, Workday, The Mosaic Co., HP, GoDaddy, CoStar Group, Fidelity National Information Services, American Tower, Home Depot, NRG Energy, Keurig Dr Pepper, EOG Resources

Wednesday, Feb. 25

Earnings: Salesforce, Nvidia, TKO Group Holdings, Synopsys, VICI Properties, Universal Health Services, Paramount Skydance, Agilent Technologies, The Trade Desk, Lowe’s Companies, The TJX Cos., Pinnacle West Capital, Raymond James Financial, APA Corp.

Thursday, Feb. 26

8:30 a.m. Initial Claims (2/21)

Earnings: Block, Solventum, Dell Technologies, SBA Communications, NetApp, Autodesk, Intuit, Coterra Energy, Sempra, Public Service Enterprise Group, Vistra, The J.M. Smucker co., Viatris, Hormel Foods, Qnity Electronics, The AES Corp.

Friday, Feb. 27

8:30 a.m. Producer Price Index (January)

8:30 a.m. Wholesale Inventories preliminary (January)

9:45 a.m. Chicago PMI (February)

10:00 a.m. Construction Spending (December)

SPECTATORS ARE GRABBING A SEAT TO WATCH THE MARKET ACTION

It’s a pretty normal week for the markets – nothing new really. ☺

Only Trump is throwing new tariffs at everyone.

Geopolitical situations are still a minefield. Iran/U. S relations are still hot, and Ukraine and Russia are still raging at each other.

And company results to come this week, especially Nvidia, could heighten volatility.

President Trump has put in place global tariffs at 15% after his tariffs enacted in 2025 were declared illegal by the Supreme Court. The high court ruled that Trump wrongfully invoked the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) to put in place his reciprocal tariffs. President Trump is not used to getting slapped down and losing, so in his huffed and “I’ll show you” state, he quickly used trade laws/acts – probably in the fine print – that could be enacted immediately to circumvent the Supreme Court ruling.

The Iran/U.S. relations are still simmering – no agreement yet. We watch and wait. An unclear deadline of 10-15 days before the U.S. takes military action is still in play.

Investors are on tenterhooks this week as earnings continue to be released. Particularly significant is Nvidia, which investors will be eyeing closely this week. The question on everyone’s lips is: Does the company still have legs, and does it sit well in relation to forward projections? The market can be cruel even with a slight miss. It’s a much-anticipated result. We wait and watch.

So, as I said, a pretty normal week, really.

MARKET UPDATE

S&P500

The index has been in an extended period of ranging, and those ranges have been particularly narrow. This is what a topping formation usually looks like. Retail is trying to snag the last few crumbs left here. As I have said before, the index appears coiled, with momentum under pressure. This picture presents the possibility that the market could break out to the upside before it rolls over – thereby capturing liquidity as it moves in both directions. There would be many stops just on/above the 7000 area. For now, we need to respect the choppiness of this market and use good risk management.

Resistance: 6920 area and 6990 area (right around that 7000 zone)

Support: 6935 and the 6775 area

GOLD

Gold started to rally late last week and has continued this rally after the markets opened Monday morning (my time). We are in an extended period of ranging. Look to fade extremes. Set take profit limits and be strict with trailing stops in an attempt to capture some $$$ as the market swings in both directions.

The same advice goes for the silver market.

Resistance: 5160 and 5335/45

Support: 5015/25 and 4915 and 4845

BITCOIN

Bitcoin is still consolidating after reaching that Feb 6 low at 60k.

There is still no confirmation that we have a low in place, so the bear bias remains.

A break above the 69 area would argue that we could have a deeper bounce first and then head lower.

A break below the 62k area would argue news lows are directly ahead. As I type this now, Bitcoin is sitting at 64k and change. It has had a 5% trim this morning. Investor perception about Trump’s 15% global tariffs may be the culprit.

Resistance: 72.6k and 76.9/77

Support: 65 area and 62k

The Invisible Hand of Perception Moves Markets

We often think of financial markets as a cold institution – entity – which is simply driven by data (inflation, interest rates, etc.), algorithms, and fundamental analysis. How many times have we heard the saying “It’s in the price”.

The market is always forward-looking, hence it prices in all known information and moves on. The only things the market cannot price in are unexpected announcements, shocks, surprises, & new information. We can understand then that price moves first and headlines explain it later.

So, if we know that markets discount everything and only react to unknown information, does this explain all the movements of the stock market – all its patterns?

It’s a bit more complicated than that. And it’s tied up with our expectations and perception. We know that fundamentals set the long-term trajectory, but it is the perception of those fundamentals – filtered through human emotions, bias, and sentiment – that drives short-to-medium-term market fluctuations. In essence, perception is reality in the stock market.

Let’s ask ourselves a question. Are we rational beings? Or are we regulated by our emotions and unconscious biases?

I have another question for you. Do you think we would see these huge, volatile waves in the market if we were totally rational and not affected by fear and greed?

The market would look very different, right?

The stock market is basically a picture of an emotional journey.

Optimism, Euphoria, Despair, and then Hope.

When investors perceive that a company has a bright future, they buy, driving prices up regardless of current, weak earnings. The opposite is true as well. When panic grips the market, investors tend to sell indiscriminately, asking questions later, pushing stocks with very sound fundamentals down. In this sense, we are a herd animal and tend to follow the leader, even though the fundamentals speak otherwise.

To really understand the market’s direction, we must look beyond the charts and study the minds of the people trading them.

When people hear news, they are all hearing the same script. Everyone knows it, it’s priced in. As weird as it may seem, big turning points in the markets often appear in your rear-view mirror. Major tops happen when fundamentals look the best, and everyone feels confident. Conversely, major bottoms build when fundamentals look the worst, and everyone feels hopeless.

Let’s use crypto as an example here. It topped when everyone was completely bullish. Policy headlines, hype, and everyone was confident. And what happened then – it stalled. A lot of altcoins got smashed. Sentiment on Bitcoin has plummeted.

Real estate moves in a similar pattern – only much slower.

Property doesn’t top when the fundamentals look rather scary. It tops when they look unstoppable. Employment is often low, migration is strong, and there is a housing shortage everywhere.

That’s often when cycle risk is highest, because the good news has already been priced in. The top won’t feel like a top. You will only be able to point to it later – in the rear vision mirror. Maybe 6-12 months down the road – when the bad news finally starts to filter into the mainstream, and then everyone recognises – “OK, that was the top.”

Markets move in cycles, and macro cycles tend to dominate the narrative.