Jacque's Post
January 16, 2026
(SUMMARY OF JOHN’S JANUARY 14, 2026, WEBINAR)
January 16, 2026
Hello everyone
TITLE: Risk is Rising
TRADE ALERT PERFORMANCE:
MTD = +0.52%
Since inception = +813.84%
Trailing One Year Return = +62.46%
Average Annualised Return = +50.61%
PORTFOLIO:
(CRWD) 1/$420-$430 call spread
(AAPL) 1/$445-$450 call spread
METHOD TO MY MADNESS:
The spillover allocation rally for 2026 is on; banks and precious metals are leading.
The market still has two big overhangs: the Supreme Court Tariff decision on tariffs and a January 30 government shutdown.
Bonds are dead in the water on a $42 trillion National Debt overhang, and $42 trillion if the tariffs fail.
The long-term bull arguments of super liquidity, AI, and falling interest rates are still the market drivers.
Jobs data remains not great.
Silver hits a new high, and gold is just behind.
Huge oil oversupply weighs heavily on prices in 2026.
U.S. dollar approaches new multi-year lows in line with coming rate cuts.
Bitcoin is trying to hold at the cost of production at $85,000.
GLOBAL ECONOMY – LONG BUT NERVOUS
Markets tank on DOJ criminal investigation of Fed Governor Jay Powell, throwing Fed independence out the window.
Nonfarm Payroll rises by a weak 50,000 in December, down 80% from a year ago.
The Headline Unemployment rate fell to 4.4%.
U.S. Manufacturing Jobs are in free fall.
As the U.S. withdraws, China is taking over. China has become the top provider of capital for new projects around the world, replacing the U.S.
It may be why the Chinese stock market was up 44% last year, and the Chinese Yuan appreciated.
Amazon offers deep discount weight loss drugs, Wegovy.
U.S. Trade Deficit hits 15-year low.
Ford reports best sales in six years.
STOCKS – WAR PREMIUM:
Stock market rockets on Venezuela attack, removing uncertainty from the investors.
Rotation out of big tech into the broader market continues, especially small caps (IWM)
Trump to force 10% caps on credit card companies.
Visa (V), Master Card (MA), and American Express (AXP) plunged.
Paramount sues Warner Brothers to block the $82.7 billion Netflix deal.
Apple ties up with Google’s AI to Power an upgraded Siri.
General Motors writes off $7.1 billion as it abandons the EV business.
Strategy (MSTR) discloses a $17.44 billion loss in Q4, thanks to a 36% collapse in the price of Bitcoin.
Tesla EV sales drop 9% in 2025.
John recommends buying dips after earnings, if we get a sell-off, particularly in financials.
S&P SUPPORT LEVELS
1st support = $650
2nd support = $630
BONDS – FLATLINE
Nobody wants to touch bonds, and this is why yields have flatlined for a year.
Peak borrowing in US history was in 1943 at 28% of GDP when the US took delivery of 100,000 combat aircraft that won WWII.
In 1943, most Americans put all of their savings into bonds to support the war effort.
Large government peacetime borrowing in history is now at $5 billion or 18% of GDP.
On top of this, you have to add $6 trillion of maturing bonds from the last Trump administration that have to be rolled over.
Whether the bond market can handle $11 trillion in government borrowing in 2026 will be the seminal investment question of 2026.
If it can, then markets will continue to rise. If it can’t, then markets will crash.
Markets have to do this with many foreign lenders gone.
(John didn’t send out any bond trades in 2025 and believes there will probably be none in 2026, also.)
FOREIGN CURRENCIES – DIRE OUTLOOK
US dollar remains weak with the prospect of larger interest rate cuts coming.
US dollar faces a prolonged decline, off the back of the coming Fed interest rate cuts.
We may see another 20% move down as more Fed interest rate cuts loom.
Foreigners are abandoning the US bond market, further weakening the demand of dollars.
Emerging markets (EEM) = best currency play of 2025, up 40% at the high.
Buy (FXA), FXE), (FXB), (FXC), and (FXY)
ENERGY & COMMODITIES:
Gasoline prices hit a 4-year low, thanks to collapsing crude, which hit $55 a barrel.
The average price of unleaded gasoline in the U.S. has fallen to its lowest level since 2021, according to AAA.
John saw $2.59 a gallon in Florida.
Some 110 million Americans made road trips during the holiday season.
If the Ukraine War ends, huge Russian inventories will get dumped on the market, crushing pricing.
If any Venezuelan production improves, it will crush prices further.
Venezuela is now producing 800,000 barrels a day.
It could produce 4 million barrels a day.
PRECIOUS METALS:
Margin requirements rise for Gold and Silver, after the ballistic December performance.
Gold was up more than 60% in 2025 – its best annual performance since 1979 and its third straight positive year.
The rally has been supported by a multitude of factors, including the impact of US interest rate cuts, tariff tensions, and robust demand from exchange-traded funds and central banks. Nothing has changed.
Silver has far outpaced gold in 2025, up 160%.
Silver’s price boom has stemmed from a mix of low supply and high demand from India, as well as industrial needs and tariffs.
The long-awaited consolidation is here. Avoid (GLD) and (SLV) for the short term.
Gold to hit $4,800 by the end of 2026, says Morgan Stanley.
REAL ESTATE – RATE HOPES
Housing starts jump. U.S. single-family homebuilding rebounded in October by 1.7% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 874,000 units.
Permits for future construction eased, signalling caution among builders as new housing inventory remains high and demand softens.
Starts dropped to a pace of 829,000 units in September from a 869,000-unit pace in August.
30-year fixed-rate mortgages dropped below 6.0% for the first time in years.
Rates were driven down by a government promise to buy $200 billion in mortgage-backed securities, which will never happen.
The proposed buyers, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mack, are already bankrupt.
REVIEW
Stocks – buy financial and health care
Bonds – stand aside
Commodities – buy dips
Currencies – buy dips
Precious metals – buy dips
Energy – stand aside
Volatility – sell over $30
Real Estate – buy dips
NEXT STRATEGY WEBINAR:
12:00 EST Wednesday, January 28, 2026
From Incline Village, NV
Cheers
Jacquie
