July 14, 2025

(THE MARKET APPEARS OPTIMISTIC AS IT FACES A DATA-FILLED WEEK)

July 14, 2025

Hello everyone

WEEK AHEAD CALENDAR

MONDAY, JULY 14

10:00 p.m. China GDP Growth

Previous: 5.4%

Forecast: 5.2%

Earnings: Fastenal

TUESDAY, JULY 15

8:30 a.m. CPI (June)

8:30 a.m. Empire State Index (July)

8:30 a.m. Hourly Earnings final (June)

8:30 a.m. Average Workweek final (June)

Earnings: J.B.Hunt Transport Services, Citigroup, State Street, Wells Fargo, JPMorgan Chase, The Bank of New York Mellon, BlackRock

WEDNESDAY, JULY 16

2:00 a.m. UK Inflation Rate

Previous: 3.4%

Forecast: 3.4%

8:30 a.m. PPI(June)

9:30 a.m. Business leaders survey (July)

9:15 a.m. Capacity Utilization (June)

9:15 a.m. Industrial Production (June)

9:15 a.m. Manufacturing Production (June)

2:00 p.m. Beige Book

6:30 p.m. New York Federal Reserve Bank President and CEO John Williams gives remarks on NYABE Distinguished Speaker Series

Earnings: Kinder Morgan, United Airlines, Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs Group, Johnson & Johnson, Bank of America, PNC Financial Services Group, M&T Bank, Progressive

THURSDAY, JULY 17

8:30 a.m. Continuing Jobless Claims (07/05)

8:30 a.m. Export Price Index (June)

8:30 a.m. Import Price Index (June)

8:30 a.m. Initial Claims (07/12)

8:30 a.m. Philadelphia Fed Index (July)

8:30 a.m. Retail Sales (June)

Previous: -0.9%

Forecast: 0%

10:00 a.m. Business Inventories (May)

10:00 a.m. NAHB Housing Market Index (July)

12:00 p.m. New York Federal Reserve Bank Director of Research Kartik Athreya speaks at General Membership Luncheon

Earnings: Netflix, Abbott Laboratories, U.S. Bancorp, Fifth Third Bancorp, Citizens Financial Group, PepsiCo, Elevance Health, Marsh & McLennan, GE Aerospace

FRIDAY, JULY 18

8:30 a.m. Building Permits preliminary (June)

8:30 a.m. Housing Starts (June)

10:00 a.m. Michigan Sentiment preliminary (July)

Previous: 60.7

Forecast: 61.5

Earnings: Truist Financial, Schlumberger, American Express, 3M, Regions Financial, Charles Schwab, Huntington Bancshares

The Second Half of 2025 appears to be setting up nicely for stocks

Earnings, inflation numbers, and retail sales data are on deck this week. The S&P 500 has seemed remarkably unfazed by news that usually sends financial media channels into a frenzy.

This week, Wall Street expects an uptick in inflation due to recent tariffs, but we may find that the stock market just shrugs it off as a temporary, one-off increase, and not a broader shift in inflation dynamics that could keep the Federal Reserve from cutting interest rates later this year.

Economists expect headline inflation to rise 0.3% for June.

Second-quarter earnings season will offer a fresh lens into how corporate America has been adjusting to higher tariffs.

Tariffs produced a lot of uncertainty, which most probably delayed companies’ purchases and investment decisions, and that could explain why corporate revenues might be a little on the weak side.

Many analysts suggest earnings might surprise on the upside – given recent weakness in the U.S. dollar (DXY), and favourable tax incentives from the Trump administration, which may support margins for U.S. companies’ overseas businesses.

Mike Wilson, Morgan Stanley’s top equity analyst, observes that S&P 500 earnings have improved markedly in recent weeks as fears subside about the possible damage done to corporate profits from the Trump trade war.

There are also shifting expectations around Federal Reserve policy. Wilson suggests Morgan Stanley economists think the Fed will cut interest rates seven times in 2026, as unemployment becomes more of an issue than inflation. This type of policy easing should be a tailwind for stocks. (Even though it is highly anticipated that the Fed will reduce rates, it is not guaranteed.)

But it seems that stocks are already getting in front of a more dovish policy shift in monetary policy from the Fed.

As we have seen throughout the last five years, the market has had an extraordinary ability to shrug off shocks/black swan events. We had the COVID-19 shock in 2020, inflation shocks, the Fed raising interest rates, Trump’s tariff introductions & U.S. bombing Iran. Multiple Black Swans – and now the index is sitting at all-time highs. Now that’s a resilient market. It is also a market that is seeing something very positive in the future years.

Wilson maintains his base case S&P500 target over the next 12 months at 6,500.

MARKET UPDATE

S&P500

The index keeps surging to all-time highs, with no sign yet of a top in place. (Bad news is not keeping the market tamed). Keep in mind, though, that the index is overbought, so the extent of gains ahead is a question mark & risk in the upside is rising.

Resistance: 6290/6350/75 area

Support: 6220/30 & 6140/50 area + 6065/75

GOLD

Gold is still the dingo roaming the island from end to end. And more of this behaviour will be seen until we get a break to the upside or downside.

Resistance: $3365/70 and $3455/65

Support: $3270/75 a break below this level would argue a downside move is likely ahead.

BITCOIN

As you may have noticed, Bitcoin has been on the move. As I type this, it is sitting at $121k+. It has broken all resistance in the $112/115k area. I had anticipated Bitcoin accumulating in a sideways movement for a little longer, but I’m not going to argue with this coin. The bigger picture says that this move is not yet complete – the chart pattern and technicals show there are further gains ahead.

Resistance: $122k/$123k

Support: $112/$115 – a break below these levels would be a big picture bearish signal.

HISTORY CORNER

On July 14