Jacque's Post
July 18, 2025
(SUMMARY OF JOHN’S JULY 16, 2025, WEBINAR)
July 18, 2025
Hello everyone
TITLE
Uncertainty Rules
TRADE ALERT PERFORMANCE
MTD: +2.59%
2025 YTD: +47.76%
Trailing One Year Return: +100.45%
Average Annualised Return: +51.30%
Since inception: +799.65%
PORTFOLIO REVIEW
Risk On
(AMGN) 7/$260-$270 call spread
Risk Off
(TSLA) 7/$360-$370 put spread (closed & profits taken)
(TSLA) 7/$420-$430 put spread
THE METHOD TO MY MADNESS
Stocks are now at very high-risk levels due to an increasingly unstable world.
John says, AI is the big leader, but the risk/reward here is terrible.
Bonds approaching 2025 lows, yields new highs.
The new budget bill passed a $5 trillion debt ceiling increase.
Safety assets like gold, silver, and T-bills are flat lining with crypto bleeding off speculative capital.
Oil is still dead-on recession fears and OPEC market share battle
US Dollar hits new four-year lows.
Bitcoin hits new all-time high at $123k.
THE GLOBAL ECONOMY – DEFLATING
The June Nonfarm Payroll wasn’t so hot.
Half of the 147,000 gains were government jobs, and only 74,000 were from the private sector, a quarter of what they were a year ago.
The Headline Unemployment Rate dropped 0.1% to 4.1%.
Some 590,000 full-time jobs have been lost since the beginning of 2025.
Immigration Crackdown to cut US GDP by 1.0% according to a Federal Reserve study.
The Port of Los Angeles sees an Import surge.
Clothing Imports from China hit 22-year low.
Used Car Prices surge as still tariffs drive imported car prices through the roof.
STOCKS – TOPPING OUT
Historic market concentration bodes ill for future gains.
Since 1972, the S&P 500 has posted below-average returns over the next one, three, six, and 12 months when new records were made with fewer than 100 stocks.
Bitcoin plays take off on new highs.
Hedge Fund Citadel buys Morgan Stanley’s Option Business.
US Military becomes the largest shareholder in MP Materials, the largest producer of rare earths in the US.
Italy buys US Corn Flakes; Ferrero International SA is close to acquiring WK Kellogg Co. for about $3 billion.
Boeing ramps up 737 production, delivering 60 airplanes last month, the most since December 2023.
Constellation was wiped out by tariffs on Aluminium.
BONDS PARIAHS
Budget bill raises debt ceiling by $5 trillion.
John says we could get there by the end of 2026.
Bonds hate the national debt at $42 trillion and are approaching 2025 lows in prices, highs in yields.
Long-term U.S. bonds have become pariahs.
Bond investors are moving away from longer-dated Treasuries.
The Bond Vigilantes are back and are not to be taken lightly.
Government spending hit a new all-time high in May. Increased spending on Homeland Security is the cause.
Avoid (TLT), (JNK), (NLY), (SLRN), and REITS.
FOREIGN CURRENCIES – NO DOLLAR FRIENDS
US dollar hits four-year low, as the “Sell America” trade continues.
Short dollars against long Euros – it’s become the most concentrated trade in global markets.
It’s almost unprecedented for a currency to fall when its interest rates are rising.
Debt, default, and trade wars are now the larger concern.
Next dollar weakness will come with evidence of a recession in days.
Buy (FXA), (FXE), (FXB), (FXC), and (FXY)
ENERGY & COMMODITIES
The Energy Sector is marking down earnings.
Exxon (XOM), the biggest U.S. energy company, was rising in early trading even after it flagged that second-quarter earnings will take a hit from lower energy prices.
US drillers cut rigs for 10th week, or the first time since July 2020, thanks to a global oil glut.
OPEC increases production by 550,000 barrels a day.
Budget bill kills effort to restore strategic petroleum reserve, cutting the funding by 90%.
US Crude inventories hit one one-year low.
Look for energy plays to hit new lows.
Copper hits new all-time high on 50% tariff.
PRECIOUS METALS – CONSOLIDATING
Bitcoin breakout is stealing gold’s thunder.
Speculative money is chasing new highs in crypto plays at the expense of gold.
Traders have been rolling out of hedges as stocks rise.
Silver hits a new high for the year.
(AGQ) 2X LEAPS hit max profit.
$50 silver is a long-term target.
John’s target for gold is $5,000.
REAL ESTATE – NO BUYERS
Housing starts hit five-year low.
Multifamily dropped 30% MOM as a record supply hits the market.
Single-family home starts fell 7% YOY.
All housing-related stats are falling off a cliff.
Homebuilder Sentiment hits pandemic low.
Watch the homebuilders as they will front-run any fall in interest rates in 2026.
Apartment rents are slowing, up only 0.4% in May and down 0.5% YOY, usually a strong period.
TRADE SHEET
Stocks – stand aside
Bonds – sell rallies
Commodities – buy dips
Currencies – buy dips
Precious Metals – buy dips
Energy – stand aside
Volatility – sell over $30
Real Estate – stand aside
NEXT STRATEGY WEBINAR
12:00 EST Wednesday, July 30, 2025
From Incline Village, NV.
Cheers
Jacquie
