July 30, 2025

 

(THE EXCESS PHASE IN THE MARKET REVEALS THE NATURAL HUMAN INSTINCT OF GREED)

 

July 30, 2025

 

Hello everyone

 

Welcome to the period of frenzy in the markets. 

If you didn’t already know it, we are in the Excess Phase of the market.  This phase can last longer than most anticipate, and it is harder to nail down an exact target that the market will reach.  This is the phase where you see people borrowing funds to invest, leveraging themselves over and above what they rationally should, and the thinking is that the market is a buy on every dip, until they find that it isn’t.

This Excess Phase is what you saw when people were going crazy in the Dot Com era, buying up everything associated with tech in the few years before the year 2000, and then market structure changed.  Retail investors were booted out of the market, without even collecting some small change on the way down the elevator.

We saw a similar story in 2008.  Everyone was leveraged up the eyeballs; the Excess Phase sucked everyone in and then spat them out in a brutal manner as the market collapsed, and retail investors were wiped out.

Many sophisticated investors and institutions are already out of the market, or they are scaling out slowly as this market keeps going up.  Retailers are the investors who are piling in.  And these retail investors are comprised of a whole new generation of market participants, who are not fully fledged in market dynamics and how market structure works.  But they will find out quickly enough.

My research tells me that we will have a fierce pullback in the markets sometime in 2026.  We could drop 30% – 50% or so.  So, if the market gets to around S&P500 7000, don’t be surprised if we drop to a zone around the low 5000’s or in the mid to high 4000’s. 

The final three years of the 2020’s could be very tough economically.  Many businesses could shut up shop and go bust, unemployment could rise, inflation could rise, and life generally could get quite challenging for many people.

We are nearly 100 years from the 1929 Depression.  The market works in cycles, so it is important to recognize this 100-year mark and understand that we could enter a “silent” Depression/Recession over the next few years.  In other words, just because it is not called out as the “D” or “R” word, it doesn’t mean that times are easy, and a large proportion of the population are not struggling.

 

AUSTRALIAN SOCIAL MEDIA POLICIES FOR UNDER 16’s

The Australian government is prepared to ruffle the feathers of Big Tech like Google in order to install protective measures for young people.  From December 10 this year, social media platforms, such as Facebook, Instagram, YouTube, Snapchat, WeChat, and TikTok will be banned for users under 16.   How they are going to police this is not clear, but Tech giants, like Google, are preparing to sue.

 

 

Cheers

Jacquie