June 13, 2025

 

(SUMMARY OF JOHN’S JUNE 11, 2025, WEBINAR)

 

June 13, 2025

 

Hello everyone

 

TITLE –The Blind Man’s Market

 

PERFORMANCE

June = +9.94%

2025 YTD = +39.61%

Since inception = +738.17%

Trailing One Year Return = +90.96%

Average Annualized Return = +50.85%

 

PORTFOLIO

Risk On

(MSTR) 6/$330-$340 call spread

(TSLA) 6/$190-$200 call spread

Risk Off

(QQQ) 6/ $540-$550 put spread

(WPM) 6/$75-$80 call spread

 

THE METHOD TO MY MADNESS

Stocks are now at very high-risk levels due to an increasingly unstable world.

They could go higher, but not by much.  Risk/reward – not great.

US Bond auction failure could be the stick that breaks the camel’s back, and a $22 billion one is due on Thursday.

As the National Debt accelerates, it is going to present an increasingly difficult ceiling for stock prices.

As US credit quality declines, interest rates will rise.

The top technology stocks will lead all rallies – AI will be the fuel.

Safety assets like gold, silver, and T-bills will remain in demand.

Oil is still dead-on recession fears and OPEC production increase.

US dollar hits new two-year lows.

 

THE GLOBAL ECONOMY – SLOWING

Non-farm payroll report came in weak at 139,000 last month after a combined 95,000 in downward revision to the prior two months.

The unemployment rate held at 4.2%

US Trade Deficit shrinks at the fastest rate in history, as imports collapse.

Mass Government firings are clouding the economic data.

U.S. Economic output will fall as a result of new tariffs on foreign goods, according to the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office.

ADP hits two-year low, as new hiring grinds to a halt.

US Factory Orders Dive.

ISM Manufacturing Index down for a fourth month.

The U.S. Economy contracted at an annualized rate of 0.2% in Q1 2025.

 

STOCKS: A BUYBACK GAME

A house bill that brings $664 billion in corporate tax cuts and therefore stock buybacks is powering the bull market.

That is on top of $1.2 trillion in existing buybacks budgeted for 2025.

U.S. Factories are shutting down on Rare Earth shortages.

Sports Betting stocks tank because of a 25% betting tax.

Meta to buy nuclear power plant from Constellation.

Money is fleeing Equity Funds. 

Best Buy cuts earnings outlook due to Chinese tariffs.

The 60/40 Portfolio is dead for now, with both stocks and bonds going down at the same time.

U.S. Steel (X) takeover goes through at $55 a share with Nippon Steel investing $14 billion of investment over the next 14 months to modernize antiquated technology.

John says John Deere (DE) is the best play in the commodity sector. 

How to invest in oil: (USO) ETF, Occidental Petroleum (OXY), and Exxon Mobil (XOM)

 

BONDS

Bonds are trapped at a low range on the “Sell America” trade.

June 12 brings the next huge $2 billion bond auctions for 20-year bonds.

A $16 billion Treasury sale of 20-year bonds bombed three weeks ago.

A foreign boycott was a major issue.

Japanese interest rates are soaring, part of a worldwide trend, with ultra-long 40-year bond yields hitting 3.675%.

A breakout in ten-year US Treasury yields to 5.0% is coming.

A $3 trillion rise in the National Debt proposed by the House – scaring away long-term bond investors

The Bond Vigilantes are back and are not to be taken lightly.

Avoid (TLT), (JNK), (NLY), (SLRN), and REITS

 

FOREIGN CURRENCIES – DOLLAR DIVE

US dollar hits two-year low, as the “Sell America” trade continues.

It’s almost unprecedented for a currency to fall when its interest rates are rising.

Debt, default, and trade wars are now the larger concern.

Next dollar weakness will come with evidence of a recession in days.

Buy (FXA), (FXE), (FXB), (FXC), and (FXY)

 

ENERGY & COMMODITIES

OPEC – ramping up production.

The worlds’ largest group of oil producers, OPEC+ stuck to its guns at a Saturday meeting with another big increase of 411,000 barrels per day for July as it looks to wrestle back market share and punish over-producers.

Having spent years curbing production – more than 5 million barrels a day or 5% of world demand- eight OPEC countries made a modest output increase in April before tripling it in May, June, and now July.

The Shale Oil Boom is Over, due to tax-subsidized US over-production, weak Chinese consumption, and recession fears.

As a result, oil companies are scaling back capital investment.

Texas, Oklahoma, and Louisiana will get hit the hardest.

 

PRECIOUS METALS – Profit Taking

Silver hits 13 year-high, at $35 an ounce, and is catching up with gold quickly.  (SLV) target is $50.

Known both as a safe-haven asset and a vital industrial metal, silver has surged 24% so far in 2025.

Industrial uses account for more than half of global silver demand, according to the Silver Institute industry association, so the recession may be a drag.

$50 here we come.

Gold is coiling for another move up as soon as stocks fall.

Credit downgrades and eventual default have been the dream of gold bugs for the last 50 years.

John’s target is still $5,000.

 

REAL ESTATE – Deader than Dead

Apartment rents are slowing, up only 0.4% in May and down 0.5% YOY, usually a strong period.

The effect on property REITS has been pronounced.

The national median monthly rent is now $1,398 a month.  Vacancies are at 7%, the highest since 2017.

Housing stocks plunge to one-year lows, on spike in long bond and mortgage rates.

Construction spending collapsed in April, down 0.9%, for both single and multifamily homes.  Another red flag for the economy.

More Office space is disappearing than being built for the first time in 25 years.

Pending Home Sales hit three- year low.

 

TRADE SHEET

Stocks – sell rallies

Bonds – sell rallies

Commodities – stand aside

Currencies – buy dips

Precious Metals – buy dips

Energy – stand aside

Volatility – sell over $50

Real Estate – stand aside

 

NEXT STRATEGY WEBINAR

12:00 EST Wednesday, June 25, 2025, from Incline Village, NV.

 

 

Cheers

Jacquie