June 23, 2025

(THE MARKET IS SHRUGGING ITS SHOULDERS AT CONFLICTS, TARIFFS AND ECONOMIC CHALLENGES)

June 23, 2025

Hello everyone

WEEK AHEAD CALENDAR

Monday June 23

4:30 a.m. UK Services PMI

Previous: 50.9

Forecast: 51.5

9:45 a.m. PMI Composite preliminary (June)

9:45 a.m. S&P PMI Manufacturing preliminary (June)

9:45 a.m. S&P PMI Services preliminary (June)

10:00 a.m. Existing Home Sales (May)

Tuesday June 24

8:30 a.m. Canada Inflation Rate

Previous: 1.7%

Forecast: 1.5%

9:00 a.m. FHFA Home Price Index (April)

9:00 a.m. S&P/Case Shiller comp.20 HPI (April)

10:00 a.m. Consumer Confidence (June)

10:00 a.m. Richmond Fed Index (June)

Earnings: FedEx, Carnival

Wednesday June 25

8:00 a.m. Building Permits final (May)

10:00 a.m. New Home Sales (May)

10:00 a.m. US Fed Chair Testimony

Earnings: Micron Technology, General Mills

Thursday June 26

8:30 a.m. Chicago Fed National Activity Index (May)

8:30 a.m. Continuing Jobless Claims (6/14)

8:30 a.m. GDP Chain Price final (Q1)

8:30 a.m. GDP (Q1)

Previous: 2.4%

Forecast: -0.2%

8:30 a.m. Initial Claims (6/21)

8:30 a.m. Wholesale Inventories preliminary (May)

10:00 a.m. Pending Home Sales Index (May)

10:00 a.m. Pending Home Sales (May)

11:00 a.m. Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Index (June)

Earnings: Nike, Walgreens Boots Alliance, McCormick & Co.

Friday June 27

8:30 a.m. Core PCE Deflator (May)

8:30 a.m. PCE Deflator (May)

8:30 a.m. Personal Consumption Expenditure (May)

8:30 a.m. Personal Income (May)

10:00 a.m. Michigan Sentiment final (June)

Wall Street is monitoring events in the Middle East but is not alarmed, yet.

It’s only about six hours until the markets open. Stock futures are actually showing gains in all indexes, even as oil prices rise. But, as we know with markets, they can change quickly.

The market has perplexed many investors. They remain confused by the market’s insistence on looking past conflict, tariffs, and challenges in the economic landscape. Even rising oil prices have not deterred investors.

After the U.S. strikes on Iranian nuclear sites, we are now waiting for Iran’s response. Australia has come out in support of the U.S. nuclear strikes to ensure Iran cannot develop nuclear weapons, but has followed this up by pushing for diplomacy and de-escalation of conflict. Australia does not want to see a lengthy war In the Middle East.

The personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index – the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge is also on the table this week.

On the earnings front, we get reports from FedEx, Nike, and Micron.

ANOTHER WAR – HERE WE GO AGAIN…

Who runs the United States of America?

Is it the President? I don’t think so.

Is it the “bureaucratic institutions” of the U.S.? Most probably.

And they are??—

the CIA, the Pentagon, the intelligence community, military contractors, the armed services, committees of Congress, etc.

It doesn’t matter which side comes to power – Democrat or Republican – the outcome is the same. Ideas and promises shared during the campaign are soon compromised and stymied when the President confronts the reality of the bureaucracy.

Trump came to power on a platform of putting “America First”, promising peace and no involvement in foreign wars. Within around six months, Israel has cajoled the U.S. President to act against Iran militarily, and it did.

The bureaucratic mob appears to run foreign policy far more consistently than any individual President.

For thirty years, America has seemed to have participated in or supported wars on behalf of Netanyahu. Here we can point to the Iraq war, the overthrow of the Syrian government, the war in Libya, Israel’s invasion of Lebanon, the wars that the U.S. supported in Sudan/Somalia and now, this new war in Iran. It’s almost like Netanyahu is ticking off a checklist in order to dominate the Middle East and achieve his expansionist goals.

Does Trump know what he is doing?

By attacking Iran, he has possibly opened Pandora’s Box and has started a much broader war.

In his speech to the Nation and the world after the U.S. strikes on Iran, Trump said our warriors have done a fantastic job and have obliterated Iran’s nuclear sites – the job is done. And now we can have peace.

Let me just break this down.

Firstly, there is no way, Trump could know whether the strikes had been successful or not.

Secondly, there are many nuclear sites in Iran, apart from the ones that were targeted.

Thirdly, Trump’s assumption that Iran will not strike back against Israel/U.S. in some way does not represent deep intelligence and is broadly arrogant.

The Iranian civilisation goes back 5,000 years. It is rich in history. Britain and the U.S. undermined Iran’s place in the world in the second half of the 20^th century, after the CIA and British Intelligence orchestrated a coup to oust Iran’s democratically elected Prime Minister, Mohammad Mosaddegh. Britain and the U.S. wanted to protect Western oil interests and prevent the spread of communism, but it resulted in a loss of trust and fuelled resentment towards the UK and the US.

Do we really know what’s happening?

The media tells the people what it wants them to see. It never gives the whole story or the facts. The bureaucracy seeks to keep people in the dark, which is a form of control.

A way forward for peace

Draw up a two-state solution, where Israel and Palestine can live peacefully.

It’s simple, but no-one will do it.

MARKET UPDATE

S&P500

The index appears stalled; we may see a sideways movement to unwind an overbought market. The top in place now could last a few weeks or so.

Resistance: 6043/50 area and 6100 area

Support: 5944/54 and 5790/5800 area (=200-day MA)

Gold

Gold is still showing us a lot of choppiness since the April high at $3500. A rising wedge/reversal pattern is forming, which is potentially a topping formation. Interestingly, in response to the Iran/Israel conflict and the U.S. strikes on Iran, gold spiked to around 3392 and then immediately fell again and has now settled at 3364 on my charts at the time of writing. Silver also hardly responded to the escalation in conflict. Oil, however, spiked higher.

Resistance: 3495/05 and 3455/65 a break above here would put the topping view on hold for now.

Support: 3343/53 – any break below these levels could be indicative that the rising wedge has been broken, and gold could fall to its next level of support around the 3288 level.

Bitcoin

No change. Bitcoin has stalled since the May high of 112k. Failure to build on the upside sees Bitcoin in a topping formation for the medium term. Any break of 90/89k could see Bitcoin falling to the 75k area.

Resistance: 106.5/107.0k and 109.6/110k

Support: 100k and 97, and then 90/89 area.

HISTORY CORNER

On June 23