June 30, 2025

(THE BENNER CYCLE IS STILL RELEVANT)

June 30, 2025

Hello everyone

WEEK AHEAD CALENDAR

Monday June 30

7:50 p.m. Japan MFG. Index

Previous: 12

Forecast: 10

Tuesday July 1

9:45 a.m. S&P Global manufacturing PMI (June)

10:00 a.m. ISM Manufacturing (June)

10:00 a.m. JOLTS (May)

Wednesday July 2

8:15 a.m. ADP employment report (June)

9:30 p.m. Australia Trade Balance

Previous: A$5.4B

Forecast: A$5.1B

Thursday July 3

8:30 a.m. Nonfarm payrolls (June)

Previous: 139k

Forecast: 129k

8:30 a.m. Initial jobless claims (Week that ended June 28)

8:30 a.m. International trade (May)

9:45 a.m. S&P Global services PMI (June)

10:00 a.m. ISM services (June)

10:00 a.m. Factory orders (May)

U.S. market closes at 1:00 p.m.

Friday July 4

3:30 a.m. Euro Area ECB Speech

U.S. markets closed for the Fourth of July holiday

THE BENNER CYCLE – WHY IT’S WORTH A LOOK

Let’s revisit the 1870s for a moment. An Ohio farmer named Samuel T. Benner lost nearly everything during the financial panic of 1873.

Instead of accepting defeat, Benner studied past market cycles and began tracking patterns in commodity prices, business activity, and stock market behaviour.

The consequence of his study was the creation of the Benner Cycle chart that mapped out years of financial panics, prosperity,y and depressions with incredible accuracy.

More than 150 years later, Benner’s work is still making waves among traders, analysts, and historians alike.

What is the Benner Cycle

The Benner Cycle is a predictive model that attempts to forecast economic and stock market highs and lows.

Benner’s model presents a theory of repeating economic patterns based on historical data. He divided market movements into distinct periods, suggesting that economic booms and busts followed regular, identifiable cycles.

He saw that years of panic tend to occur every 8-9 years.

Years of good times (high in business activity and markets) follow a longer 16–18-year rhythm.

Years of low prices tend to follow 7-year or 11-year patterns.

His findings were encapsulated into three primary lines: A, B, and C, each representing different market phenomena.

A -> Panic Years: when significant economic downturns take place. Market panics can lead to irrational buying or selling, causing extreme price fluctuations. This is indicative of a bull market top, and it is time to sell.

B-> Good Times: the market experiences robust growth, and stocks and other assets reach their peak value.

Examples of these “good times” include 1926, 1936, 1953, and 1962, with future peaks expected in 2026, 2043, and 2050.

C-> Hard Times: This is the bear market. It is a time of hardship, when the market is showing low prices, and a bottoming-out process. These are seen as the best times to buy, allowing investors to capitalize on the coming recovery. Periods of economic distress, such as 1931, 1942, 1975, and more recently, 2020, represent prime buying opportunities.

Benner’s forecasts were built on time, not news headlines

There is no denying that financial markets are influenced by a multitude of factors, from technological advancements to geopolitical developments. However, history has repeatedly shown that market patterns often revert to predictable rhythms, driven by deeper human and systemic forces – like credit cycles, innovation, speculation, and mass psychology, suggesting that Benner’s cyclical approach holds merit. His method offers a unique lens through which investors can view market trends, using historical data to anticipate future events.

Understanding the Benner Cycle allows investors to adopt a contrarian mindset. In times of panic (Line A), when most are selling in fear, a savvy investor, guided by Benner’s analysis, might consider buying undervalued assets. Conversely, during periods of prosperity (Line B), when market euphoria reigns, Benner suggests it’s time to sell and lock in gains. Hard times (Line C), when prices are low and market sentiment is pessimistic, offer the most opportune moments to buy for long-term growth.

Benner’s Cycle is still relevant in modern times

You would think that with all the technology today, with algorithms and AI encroaching on everything in our lives, that Benner’s Cycle would be considered archaic.

Not so.

Markets may change, but human nature does not.

People still get euphoric at the top, fearful at the bottom, and greedy somewhere in between. Benner’s forecast taps into this emotional ebb and flow – without needing a single earnings report, inflation number, news headline or CNBC analyst spinning financial numbers.

The Benner Cycle and the current decade

If you project Benner’s cycle into the current decade, here is what may be in front of us:

2023-2025: Recovery and rising prices

2025-2027: Possible market peak

2034-2036: Another potential downturn or financial panic

Let’s remember that no cycle forecasting model is perfect.

Markets are influenced by countless variable – such as political upheaval, unexpected economic shocks, broader economic indicators, technological disruptions and geopolitical events.

Nevertheless, the Benner framework gives investors a long-term lens that helps us zoom out, think beyond the daily noise, stay grounded, and spot repeating rhythms.

Real Estate in 2026

Lining up well with the Benner Cycle is the 18-year real-estate cycle, which forecasts a property-market crest in 2026.

2026 is the year to play defense.

Build cash reserves.

Tighten risk management

Be disciplined and wait for good entries

2027-2030 could well be tough economic times.

MARKET UPDATE

S&P500

The index has rallied to the upside and shows no indication of a short-term top yet. But we can also view this movement as part of a topping behaviour., so I would expect any gains above 6250 would likely be limited in the short term. On the flip side, there is negative sentiment in the market and $ are sitting on the sidelines, which allows for potential of further upside to form a blow-off top pattern.

Resistance: 6240/60 area

Support: 5900 area and 5800

GOLD

Larger topping behaviour is happening now. Lack of momentum and a bearish signal on the MACD indicates a big picture negative for gold. Nevertheless, choppiness could be in the cards for gold in the near term, before we see a strong move lower.

Resistance: $3295/ $3344 area and $3450/62 area

Support: $3255/65 area

BITCOIN

Bitcoin remains choppy and looks to be in the process of making a larger top for the medium term. Any gains past the 112k area would likely be limited at this stage.

Resistance = 108 – 108.7 area

Support = 103 -103.4 area and 97 -98.2k area

HISTORY CORNER

On June 30