November 12, 2025

 

(DISNEY EARNINGS COULD SPARK A BREAKOUT)

 

November 12, 2025

 

Hello everyone

 

Disney earnings are on deck this Thursday. 

We can see that the stock has been quite flat throughout 2025. 

And it’s well known that Bob Iger is in his final year at the helm of Disney.

So, let’s dig into what investors and traders will be looking for.

Investors will be eager to hear updates related to cost-cutting and revenue growth from its direct-to-consumer business and get some insight into the health of the consumer when it comes to park spend and any succession updates in the new CEO search.

Traders will be watching a few key levels – hoping that a breakout and new uptrend is about to begin.

Let’s check out the chart.

Shares are in a near-term downtrend, going back to their June peak.  Price has been consolidating in a narrowing range between its 50 and 200-day moving averages with clear support around $110. 

Momentum indicators are supporting the bull case.  The RSI is showing a bullish divergence, and the MACD is giving a slight buy signal. 

You can see that the price is pushing that upper band of the trend and appears poised to break above it.

 

 

The long-term view is positive.

Looking at a five-year weekly chart, it is clear to see there has been a change in the trend.  Shares have broken the long-term downtrend going back to their 2021 peak.   You can see price action is now trending above both its 50 and 200-week moving averages. 

The averages have formed a golden cross, which tends to be a lagging indicator on a short-term basis but is more significant on a longer-term basis.   The last time Disney formed a golden cross on a weekly basis was June 2010, which was the beginning of a new long-term uptrend.

 

 

 

Short-term traders are looking for a gap above the 50-day moving average.  If that is achieved, we may see a run back to that $120 level as we head into year-end.

Over the long term, any push higher could prove to be the next leg of a future uptrend, which will be confirmed if shares can get back and stay above $120.

Below is the yearly chart.  We can see here that a clear break above the $120 level could see another bullish theme develop.   The RSI is at a level not seen since around 2008.

It is significant to note that volume is strong, which supports the thesis that Disney could be on the verge of a major breakout to the upside.

Those of you who have been attending my webinars or watching the webinar recordings will be aware that I have been watching Disney for a long time.

My patience may be about to pay off.

 

 

A bullish end for Iger’s reign would be a great reward for him and his shareholders. 

 

QI CORNER

Alexander Lupachev (Private Equity/Venture Capital/Fintech Specialist)

Lots of talk recently about the similarities between the current AI boom and the Dot Com bubble 25 years ago. Goldman just published a report saying that ‘it’s similar but different’ this time around.

(1) In the late 1990s, investment in tech equipment and software rose from just over 3% of the US GDP in 1995 to 4.5% by 2000. Telecom investments also reached over 2% of GDP. Today, AI and hyperscaler investments have doubled since late 2022, but are a smaller share of GDP compared to the 1990s peak.​

(2) Corporate profits in the 1990s peaked in late 1997 but began declining as wages and unit labor costs rose. Currently, corporate profit margins are stable, and wage growth is slowing, meaning costs are not rising as fast.​

(3) Corporate borrowing and debt increased a lot in the 1990s bubble, with corporate debt reaching around 600% of corporate profits by 2000. Today, corporate debt compared to profits is much lower, and financial balances remain positive, showing healthier corporate finances.​

(4) Household savings rates dropped sharply in the 1990s as stock prices soared. Currently, household savings have stayed more stable despite rising equity values.​

(5) The increase in AI-related equity valuations since late 2022 is estimated to exceed $8 trillion in projected capital revenue benefits, suggesting the market may have priced in a lot of expected gains. However, typical late-1990s signs like rising credit spreads and permanent equity volatility increases have not happened yet.​

 

 

Cheers

Jacquie