November 14, 2025

 

(SUMMARY OF JOHN’S NOVEMBER 12, 2025, WEBINAR)

 

November 14, 2025

 

Hello everyone

 

TITLE – Reality Check

PERFORMANCE

November = +3.38% MTD

Since inception = +814.63%

2025 YTD = +62.74%

Trailing One Year Return = +78.65%

Average Annualised Return = +51.05%

 

PORTFOLIO

Risk On Positions (each 10%)

(NFLX) 11/$1000-$1020 call spread

(ZM) 11/$72.50 – $77.50 call spread

(GS) 11/$700 – $710 call spread

(MS) 12/ $150 – $155 call spread

(BLK) 12/$1000-$1010 call spread

No Risk Off Positions

 

METHOD TO MY MADNESS

Liquidity crunch caused by government shutdown prompts first real correction in seven months.  The Treasury has withheld $100 billion from the economy.  John argues that reopening the government will turn the tap back on.

Bonds sell off for same reasons.

The long-term bull arguments of super liquidity, AI, and falling interest rates are still the market drivers.

Jobs data remains dire.

Gold and silver peak and take a long overdue rest.

New US sanctions against Russia spike oil 5%.

US dollar rallies modestly.

Bitcoin plumbs year lows.

 

THE GLOBAL ECONOMY – THE SHUTDOWN DRAGS ON

Fed cuts interest rates by 25 basis points.  More importantly, The Fed is ending quantitative tightening or letting its existing bond holdings mature without replacing them with new buys.

October job cuts hit 22 -year high, according to Challenger, Gray & Christmas.

US cut 10% of all flights at 40 major airports in response to the government shutdown.

ADP adds 42,000 jobs in private employment.

S&P Global Services PMI comes in weak, 54.8, down from 55.2. U.S.

US Manufacturing falls for eight consecutive months, according to the Institute for Supply Management.

Consumer Confidence hits all-time low.

STOCKS – WAKE UP CALL

Hedge Funds dumping stocks at fastest rate in two years.

Alphabet beats taking the stock up 5%.  Meta and Microsoft disappoint.

Amazon rockets an incredible 10%, with $209 billion in Q3 revenues.

Palantir beats, but the stock tanks 19% – repeating the pattern of previous tech announcements.

Bank of America downgrades gaming stocks, DraftKings (DKNG) and FanDuel owner Flutter Entertainment (FLUT)

AMD beats, but the stock falls anyway.

Starbucks sell China Subsidiary to Boyu Capital in a deal that values the business at $4 billion.

Snap shares rocket 25% on Perplexity deal.  AI startup, Perplexity will pay Snap $400 million.

Robinhood beats, but the shares fall 18% in a week.

DoorDash craters 23%, missing analyst expectations.

Netflix announced 10:1 share split, sending the shares up $45.

 

BONDS – GRIND UP

Bonds slowly grind up powered by Fed interest rate cuts, taking yields below 4.0%.

No trade here, no volatility, high risk.

Debt crisis postponed until 2026 when the government has to borrow $10 trillion, including rollovers.

There is still a big overhang on this trade from the exploding National Debt, declining US credit quality, and collapsing US dollar.

The US yield curve is steepening.

The only thing that can save the bond market is massive Fed buying through quantitative easing in eight months.

Avoid (TLT), (JNK), (NLY), (SLRN) and (REITS)

 

FOREIGN CURRENCIES – RARE DOLLAR RALLY

US dollar faces a prolonged decline off the back of coming Fed interest rate cuts.

The US dollar strength last week is from a flight to safety bid from the stock market sell-off.

With a government shut down, the “sell America” trade is back on too.

Australian dollar tanks on China retaliation.

We may see another 20% move down as more Fed interest rates cuts loom.

Next dollar weakness will come with evidence of more rate cuts.

Buy (FXA), (FXE), (FXB), (FXC), and (FXY)

 

ENERGY & COMMODITIES – A NUCLEAR GAME

China rushes to top up oil reserves, taking advantage of multiyear low prices caused by the current glut.

US Nuclear generation set to soar as surging demand driven by data centres strains grids across the country and a wave of tech companies sign deals to source power from the zero-carbon resource.

Cameco rockets up an eye-popping 32% in a week.

The consumer brown out – coming.  A flurry of announcements in nuclear energy investments -most recently an $80 billion U.S.

An $80 billion U.S. partnership with the owners of Westinghouse Electric is a clear sign of future investment in nuclear.

Avoid all conventional energy plays in oil and gas.

Crude oil is down 20% YTD, the worst performing asset class.

(SMR) – take a look (future is nuclear)

 

PRECIOUS METALS – BACKING OFF

US extends critical metal designation to Silver, Copper, Coal and Uranium.

Chile’s Codelco announced record profits off the back of the copper boom, which reached all-time high prices.

Precious metals and related mining stocks are retreating after a parabolic move up over the past two months.

The charts suggest that gold and gold miners are due for a more prolonged period consolidation to reset their bullish long-term trends.

There is gap-based support near $3,927/oz.

If it is breached, it would increase near-term downside risk to the 50-day moving average (MA), currently $3,766/oz and rising over time.

The long-term gold and silver plays are still on.

 

REAL ESTATE – DARK CLOUDS

Home prices are lagging inflation, which means that homeowners’ net equity is falling.

Home prices nationally rose 1.5% in August compared with the same month last year, down from the 1.6% annual gain recorded in July, according to the S&P Cotality Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA index.

While home prices aren’t yet falling, they’re weakening – rising at a slower pace than the current 3% rate of inflation.

That means that housing wealth eroded in real terms for the fourth consecutive month.

Pending Home Sales Rise were flat in September on a signed contract basis and up 0.9% YOY.

Inventories climbed to a five-year high as the market is held back by a rising Unemployment rate.

 

REVIEW

Stocks – buy interest rate sensitive

Bonds – stand aside

Commodities – buy dips

Currencies – buy dips

Precious Metals – buy dips

Energy – stand aside

Volatility – sell over $30

Real Estate – buy dips

 

NEXT STRATEGY WEBINAR

12:00 EST Wednesday, November 27, 2025, from Incline Village, NV.

 

 

Cheers

Jacquie