November 17, 2025

 

(AUSTRALIA IS STUCK WHEN IT COMES TO AI ADOPTION)

 

November 17, 2025

 

Hello everyone

 

WEEK AHEAD CALENDAR

Monday, Nov. 17

9:30 a.m. Empire State manufacturing Nov. survey

 

Tuesday, Nov. 18

9:15 a.m. Industrial production (Oct.)

10:00 a.m. Home builder confidence index (Nov.)

10:00 a.m. Business inventories

Earnings:  Home Depot, Medtronic

 

Wednesday, Nov. 19

8:30 a.m. Philadelphia Fed manufacturing survey (Nov.)

8:30 a.m. Housing starts (Oct.)

8:30 a.m. Building permits (Oct.)

8:30 a.m. U.S. trade deficits (Aug.)

2:00 p.m. Federal Reserve FOMC minutes 2 p.m. ET

Earnings:  Lowe’s Companies, Raymond James Financial, Target, The TJX Cos., Palo Alto Networks, Nvidia

 

Thursday, Nov. 20

8:30 a.m. U.S. employment report (Sept.)

8:30 a.m. U.S. unemployment rate (Sept.)

8:30 a.m. Initial jobless claims (Nov. 15)

10:00 a.m. U.S. leading economic indicators (Oct.)

Earnings: Jacobs Solutions, Walmart, Intuit, Ross Stores

 

Friday, Nov. 21

10:00 a.m. Consumer sentiment (Nov.)

 

Australia is mired in tar when it comes to AI

$600 bn in forecast economic benefits by 2030 are being threatened by Australia’s crisis of conviction over artificial intelligence.

Airwall Ex’s boss, Jack Zhang, has told staff to use AI or risk redundancy.

Some companies have dabbled with AI only for it to become a public relations nightmare.  Commonwealth Bank of Australia rushed into AI adoption without deeply considering the human element.  It resulted in alienating customers and staff and the loss of many corporate staff.

Building an AI prototype is not the problem.  Scaling it is.

The gap lies in the security risk – as no single person or function is currently responsible for AI security risk in an organisation.  Without clear accountability, projects flounder.

The security blind spot is widespread in Australia.

Okta data in a recent poll found that only 18 per cent of organisations were confident they could detect whether an AI agent acted outside its intended scope, and just 10 per cent said their identity systems were fully equipped to secure non-human identities like AI agents and bots.

And 35% of local executives said the use of unapproved or unmonitored tools was identified as the top security blind spot.

Complete production must include authentication, authorisation, monitoring, logging and security to prevent malicious/misbehaving agents from causing issues.

Australia is bypassing a critical element in AI   tech infrastructure that will cost us dearly if it is not remedied with some haste.

MARKET UPDATE

S&P500

The index has illustrated a range of behaviour in what has been a couple of volatile weeks for the first half of November.  The base of the bull channel has been tested during this period, which could potentially lead to further downside – though this is not yet confirmed.  The psychology around the market is very negative, and many are viewing the rally with scepticism.  It is widely recognised that fear in the market often points to more gains.  And seasonality favours a stronger market.  Time will tell if we see an inversion of this view.

Resistance:  6765 & 6865

Support:  6630 &6465~

 

GOLD

We have seen wide-ranging moves in the shiny yellow metal as it consolidates after the huge surge from the late August low at $3887.  It could be argued that these moves are part of a topping formation.  I am hearing a lot of noise about gold reaching $5000 in the very near term (next year), but if the Fed stays firm on interest rates & hawkish rhetoric finds its voice and then becomes reality, that may sour the gold run for a period.

So, for now, ranging behaviour is favoured.

Resistance:  4110 & 4230

Support:  4025 & 3985

 

BITCOIN

Bitcoin has continued lower, reaching 94k.  In the very near term, the market is seen within the final down leg in the decline from the October 27 peak.  Some consolidation is likely now.

(When Bitcoin was sitting above 101k, it was possible to interpret that there was potential for a strong bounce, but once it broke 100k, that option was negated and the downside dominated). 

It is likely that Bitcoin will find a base between 95k and 84k.   The Bitcoin chart here illustrates an interesting picture.  The 50-day moving average is in red and the 200-day moving average is in blue.  There are two Death Crosses on this chart (highlighted), and we are now very close to making another one. A Death Cross occurs when the 50-day MA crosses over the 200-day MA on the downside.  What is interesting to note is that  a couple of days before or a few days after those Death Crosses were formed, Bitcoin formed a low, and then eventually rallied strongly.  So, as irrational as it may seem, that would have been an ideal time to buy.

Resistance:  98.7k and 103-104k

Support:  93.8/94k & ~90k

 

 

HISTORY CORNER

On November 17

 

 

QI CORNER

Thomas Atkinson (Trader/Investor)

Michael Burry has officially closed his fund.
Cashed up.
Shorted big tech.
Walked away.

And in his final letter, he wrote a line every investor should read twice:

“My estimation of value in securities is not now, and has not been for some time, in sync with the markets.”

That sentence feels like a déjà vu moment in market history.

Because every time markets disconnect from fundamentals for long enough, the same pattern emerges:

The smartest skeptics don’t blow up, they give up.

We saw this in the dot-com bubble:

Julian Robertson shut Tiger Management in March 2000, saying he “no longer understood the market.” Weeks later, the Nasdaq imploded.

Tony Dye, nicknamed “Dr. Doom,” was fired for being too bearish in early 2000. Within months, the bubble cracked exactly as he predicted.

We saw the same dynamic before the GFC:

Michael Burry himself was ridiculed, pressured by investors, and nearly forced to shut down his credit-default positions in 2007. The market stayed irrational longer than anyone could tolerate until it didn’t.

Jeremy Grantham capitulated intellectually in 2007, saying valuations “made no sense,” but he couldn’t keep fighting the tide. The crash made him look prophetic.

And even before 1929:

Roger Babson was mocked for warning about excessive speculation. In September 1929, he said, “Sooner or later a crash is coming.” Weeks later, it arrived.

Jesse Livermore, observing the mania, shorted into the euphoria while seasoned professionals walked away in disbelief.

Which brings us back to today…

Burry didn’t liquidate because he ran out of ideas.
He liquidated because the market ran out of sanity.

And if you believe the old line

“Markets can stay irrational longer than you can remain solvent.”
Then Burry’s move looks less like capitulation… and more like exhaustion.

Historically, this is what happens near cycle turns:
When the people who call out risk earliest finally leave the field, the clock starts ticking.

I’m not saying a crash is imminent. Earnings are still too good for that.
But I am saying this setup is familiar.

⚠️ Excess liquidity
⚠️ Mega-cap mania
⚠️ No reward for value
⚠️ Volatility ignoring risk
⚠️ And now: a major skeptic stepping off the field

History doesn’t repeat.
But it rhymes with frightening accuracy.

2026 is shaping up to be one of the most important market transitions in a generation.

 

 

 

Michael Isaacs (Sales Manager at LexisNexis Risk Solutions)

12 of his (Michael Burry’s) most recent predictions for reference.

Jan 2017 – Predicted a global financial collapse and WW3 were imminent.

Sep 2019 – Claimed index funds were the next CDOs, ready to implode like 2008.

Dec 2020 – Shorted Tesla, said its price was “ridiculous” and destined to crash.

Jan 2021 – Reiterated that Tesla’s valuation would implode soon. Shares kept doubling.

Jan 2021 (late) – Argued GameStop’s rally wouldn’t repeat. it exploded again weeks later.

Feb 2021 – Warned the entire stock market was “dancing on a knife’s edge.”

Feb 2021 – Claimed inflation would destroy Bitcoin. It hit new highs later that year.

Feb 2021 – Called Robinhood a “dangerous casino,” it kept growing users and revenue. Up almost 1000x Mar 2021 – Said Bitcoin was a speculative bubble. it kept rallying.

Jun 2021 – Predicted the “mother of all crashes” and sold everything.

Sep 2022 – Forecasted massive stock failures ahead. indexes finished the year higher.

Aug 2023 – Bet $1.6 B on a total market crash, tweeted “Sell,” later admitted “I was wrong to say sell.”

 

Alex Spiroglou (Rules-based Futures Trader)
/ ( / )
Valuation models are an — .
No matter how sophisticated the spreadsheet,
how elegant the assumptions,
or how airtight the logic,
a valuation is still just a model of the world.
It’s a , .

At the end of the day, .

And price is shaped
but by the ever-shifting tides of :
optimism, fear, narratives, liquidity, and crowd dynamics.
Markets are a blend of math and psychology.

One way to think about it:
= ( + ) ×
= ( + ) ×

 

 

SOMETHING TO THINK ABOUT

GOLDMAN SACHS GLOBAL STRATEGY PAPER showing long-term returns outlook

 

 

 

Cheers

Jacquie