November 19, 2025

 

(MORGAN STANLEY TARGETS ARE OUT FOR 2026, BUT WHAT’S AHEAD FOR THE REST OF 2025?)

 

November 19, 2025

 

Hello everyone

 

We are approximately five weeks away from the end-of-year holiday period.  It has gone by so quickly.

2026 forecasts are now rolling in, and they make quite interesting reading.

Morgan Stanley expects the S&P500 to reach 7,800 over the next 12 months.  And that’s about 16% above last Friday’s close of 6,734.11.

Analysts at the bank point out there are AI-driven efficiency gains, accommodative tax and regulatory policies that facilitate a public to private growth transition, and interest rates that are contained.

 

But what’s the outlook until year-end…?

My research shows the projections for now into the end of the year are very mixed.  On the one hand, you have those analysts who are certain the market will rally from now into year-end.  And in the opposite corner, you have those who point out that the structure of the market has weakened, and lower lows are beckoning.

And this may mean that the correction I have been mentioning that was marked for January has been brought forward and may begin to happen much earlier – let’s say early December. 

So, if this is the case, you could scale into a put as protection.  As a suggestion, you could look at an in-the-money put spread in (SPX).  If, over the next 1-2-3 weeks, the structure continues to weaken, and the market breaks and closes below 6540 – a significant level – we can move to 2/3’s long puts/put spreads and eventually have a full PUT/PUT spread position.

Some analysts, however, are still very bullish…

 

Jefferies analyst predicts Oracle could rebound strongly

Jefferies analyst Brent Thill has a price target of $400 on Oracle shares (ORCL), despite the fact that they have been dragged down viciously on concerns about the company’s debt load and its heavy reliance on OpenAI to drive growth.   The stock is down 30% from a closing high of $328.33 achieved in October, but Thill’s target implies nearly 80% upside from Friday’s close of $222.85.

With that upside potential, Thill sees an attractive risk-reward balance for shares at current prices and views the selloff as overblown.  The Jefferies analyst notes that Oracle has erased $307 billion in market capitalization since its peak, more than the value of its $300 billion OpenAI contract – a trend that, in his view – “reduces the embedded OpenAI risk in the stock.”

Investors are concerned about risk among hyperscale cloud providers.  OpenAI is responsible for 58% of Oracle’s backlog, versus 39% or more for Microsoft Corp, and 16% for Amazon.

But if you set aside the OpenAI business, Oracle still has $220 billion in remaining performance obligations, a measure of contracted revenue that hasn’t yet been recognized.  Thill sees that as a 60% boost on the metric. 

Thill also notes Oracle’s modular capex model, which avoids actual ownership of AI data centres and focuses instead on the installation of equipment and software inside.  This limits the need for the company to make major outlays of cash up front.

While investors pace the floor about the margin profile of Oracle’s work with OpenAI, Thill argues that the company can rely on its more profitable applications and database business to support its increased capital expenditures.

Perhaps LEAPS might be a good idea here, as they would be cheap to purchase, and most investors are looking at downside numbers and not considering potential upside.

Let’s watch the Nvidia (NVDA) earnings – as they might give us some insight into the health of this market.

 

SOMETHING TO THINK ABOUT

Matt Oliver (Precious Metals Specialist, Trader & Investor)

Japan just triggered the biggest shift in global finance, and almost nobody is talking about it.

I remember the first time I realized how much of the world quietly depends on Japanese money. A fund manager showed me how trillions from Tokyo propped up mortgages in the West. It felt invisible, but it held everything together.

Here is what just broke:

• Japan’s 10-year yield just hit 1.73 percent, the highest since 2008
• At these levels Japan pays an extra 27 billion dollars in interest every year
• Japanese pensions are pulling more than 1.1 trillion dollars out of US Treasuries because hedging makes American debt unprofitable
• The unwind of the yen carry trade puts over 1.2 trillion dollars of leveraged global bets at risk
• When the largest buyer becomes a seller, US yields do not drift higher; they gap higher

The story here is simple. For three decades, the global system relied on Japan keeping money cheap, stable and endlessly available. That promise has quietly expired. Capital that once supported Western debt markets is returning home, and the pricing of everything from mortgages to equities still assumes the old world is intact.

We are living through a structural reversal that most investors only notice once it is too late.

How prepared do you think people really are for a world where the silent buyer finally walks away?

 

 

Walking along the beach on Monday, looking south towards Surfers Paradise.   It was 100°F (35 degrees C.)

 

 

Cheers

Jacquie