November 24, 2025

 

(HOLIDAY SEASON IS HERE – WILL WE GET A BOUNCE IN DECEMBER?)

 

November 24, 2025

 

Hello everyone

 

WEEK AHEAD CALENDAR

Monday, Nov. 24

Earnings: Agilent Technologies, Keysight Technologies

 

Tuesday, Nov. 25

8:30 a.m. U.S. retail sales (delayed report – Sept)

8:30 a.m. Producer price index (delayed report – Sept)

8:30 a.m. Core PPI – September

9:00 a.m. S&P Case-Shiller home price index (20 cities) – September

10:00 a.m. Consumer confidence (Nov.)

10:00 a.m. Pending home sales (Oct.)

Earnings: Best Buy, Analog Devices, J.M. Smucker, HP, Workday, Autodesk, NetApp, Dell Technologies

 

Wednesday, Nov. 26

8:30 a.m. Initial jobless claims (Nov. 22)

 

Thursday, Nov. 27

Market Closed: Thanksgiving Day

 

Friday, Nov. 28

9:45 a.m. Chicago Business Barometer (Nov.)

NYSE closes early at 1:00 p.m. ET for the Thanksgiving holiday

 

THANKSGIVING WEEK IS UPON US

It’s Thanksgiving week – a week usually full of travel for Americans and celebrations.  Showing gratitude for what we have and giving thanks for all the simple things in life – which are often overlooked and underappreciated.

But what does the market think of this holiday spirit?   It could be a time for turbulence, and uncertainty as investors wring their hands over what the Fed will do in December regarding interest rates, and whether AI companies can sustain their trajectory.

Interestingly, retail investors that supported the run from the April low, are now showing signs of fatigue – and are not indicating a strong buy-the-dip interest.

An interest rate cut in December is certainly not a done deal, so investors are cautious.

But December has typically been a strong month for stocks.  In fact, it’s the month that has ranked as the third best-performing month of the year, with the S&P500 rising an average of 1.28% since 1928, according to LSEG data.

Furthermore, according to Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at CFRA, who looked at data since World War Two, there is even historical evidence to show that whenever November has posted declines, December has shown nearly double its average historical gains. 

Jack Ablin, chief investment officer at Cresset Capital, said investors are often reluctant to sell their winners in December to forestall paying taxes on capital gains. Ablin goes on to comment on investor behaviour by saying that “what [investors] really want to do is dig in and find opportunities.”

 

MARKET UPDATE

S&P500

In the big picture – we can see that the index has broken below the base of the bull channel since June. So, this could be the beginning of a topping for at least a few weeks/ months and possibly much more.

At these major turning points there is usually wide-ranging behaviour in the markets for extended periods to allow the momentum to slow. 

An alternative view is that we are witnessing a Wave 4 correction – around a 10% sell-off which will be followed by another bull move.  The markets are influenced by liquidity and risk appetite and could be about to undergo a massive reset.  Tightening liquidity across the US financial system has emerged as a big obstacle, and in October we witnessed the biggest crypto deleveraging event in history, which was even bigger than the FTX debacle.  The government shutdown exacerbated this environment.

So, if we are in a Wave 4 correction, it could stop around 6,444.51 – 6,162.42. 

A print above 6,782.27 is a sign that Wave 5 could be unfolding. 

Resistance:  ~6670 (38% from the Oct peak at 6920) and 6760/80 area.

Support:  6550 area

 

GOLD

The shiny metal is still showing consolidation after the surge since August.  If you are trading gold, the only approach in this climate is to fade extremes, until we get more evidence/confidence around the consolidation pattern as it continues to form. 

As I have noted, gold could be in a larger topping pattern, but more evidence is needed to confirm this notion. Certainly, any close below $4021.93 would give more credence to the bearish view.  And a strong break and close below 3,900 would be strong evidence that a topping pattern was forming and gold could continue lower.

Resistance:  4128/4198~

Support:  4017/27 & 3932/42

 

BITCOIN

Bitcoin has continued lower over the last few months illustrating the fact that a major top is unfolding. 

In the short term, the market is extremely oversold, which suggests a rising risk of a base forming for at least a few weeks/or a month. 

As I type this now, Bitcoin is sitting at 86,738.46.  The November 21 low was 80.5k.  Since that low, Bitcoin has remained above the base of the bull channel, and if it can remain above that position, a base formation & near-term rally are possible.

Resistance:  89~, 94k & 99k

Support:  80.0k

 

 

HISTORY CORNER

On November 24

 

 

QI CORNER

James Fleming (Leading change; Unlocking Leadership Potential -Amazon #1 best seller)

Britain’s economy is starting to look like a place where effort goes to die.

The numbers are in, and Britain has managed the impossible. It is getting poorer and more expensive at the same time. Unemployment has climbed to five per cent, the highest since 2021.

The experts are calling this good news because it suggests an interest rate cut might come later in the year. Only in Britain could losing your job and losing your optimism be spun as progress.

They call it a weakened labour market. The translation is simple. Businesses have stopped hiring because they cannot afford to. Confidence is falling. Investment is drying up. The people trying to build and grow are carrying the impact of policies written by career politicians who have never lived with the consequences of their own decisions.

Taxes are up. Costs are up. Small businesses are drowning in compliance, litigation, and the growing list of punishments handed out to anyone who dares to employ, innovate, or expand.

We have reached a point where ambition feels like a taxable offence.

Meanwhile, the government insists the economy is still creating jobs. In the same way, the Titanic was still moving forward. It is the kind of statement that looks fine on paper and collapses the moment it meets reality.

Look at wages. The public sector gets 6.6 per cent. The private sector gets 4.2.

The people who create the value get less than the people who consume it.

Every year, the gap grows, and every year, the people actually holding the economy together fall further behind.

This is the culture we have created. Reward the system. Punish the builders. Smother the people trying to make something happen.

And with Labour digging deeper into policy and AI accelerating towards roles that are already under threat, the picture gets darker, not brighter.

I have said it before. Britain does not have a talent problem. It has a policy problem and a cultural one.

When you punish the people who build, employ, and innovate, you eventually run out of people willing to try.

 

 

Conrad Francis (Specialist money manager)

Australia doesn’t talk about this enough.

Our M3* money supply has jumped from $1.8 trillion in 2015 to $3.3 trillion today — an 83% increase in a single decade.

Nearly half of all Australian dollars in existence were created in the last 10 years.

That flood of new money doesn’t just sit there quietly.

It pushes up the prices of everything, groceries, housing, services, while quietly shrinking the value of every dollar already in your pocket.

Gold tells the story clearly…
2015: $1,500 per ounce
Today: $6,250 per ounce

Same ounce of gold.
Very different dollar.

Housing says the same thing.

A $600,000 Adelaide home five years ago now sells for $1.2 million; the house didn’t double in quality… the currency halved in purchasing power.

This is the reality of a credit-driven, fiat-currency system.

When the money supply expands faster than the economy, the value of the dollar declines, slowly, quietly, and permanently.

If you’ve been feeling the squeeze at the checkout or wondering why your savings don’t stretch as far… this chart explains it.

More money doesn’t equal more wealth.
It just means each dollar buys less.

*M3 is the total amount of money in Australia, all the cash, all the bank deposits, and all the money created when banks issue loans

 

 

SOMETHING TO THINK ABOUT

William Tohme (CFA, Managing Director – Middle East & Africa)

“I can calculate the motion of heavenly bodies, but not the madness of people.”

Newton’s Biggest Miscalculation Wasn’t Scientific — It Was Financial!!!

Finance professionals know better than anyone: markets don’t reward IQ alone.
But perhaps the most striking example of this comes from a man whose intellect shaped modern science.

Newton: A Disciplined, Informed Investor (Pre-1720)
• Diversified portfolio
• Holdings in the Bank of England & East India Company
• Deep familiarity with monetary systems as Master of the Royal Mint

This wasn’t a naïve retail investor. Newton understood capital flows and government finance.

The South Sea Bubble: A Case Study in Collective Irrationality
As South Sea Company shares soared in 1720, Newton entered early, exited intelligently, and locked in ~£7,000 profit (millions in today’s money).

Then came the moment every finance professional will recognize…

The FOMO Re-entry
Despite his data-driven discipline, Newton was pulled back in by sentiment and the crowd narrative. His friends were getting rich!
He reinvested heavily—near the top.

The Collapse
When the bubble burst, he lost ~£20,000, wiping out a major portion of his net worth.
He reportedly banned the words “South Sea” from being spoken around him.

Lessons Still Relevant in 2025:
• Intellect ≠ Immunity to bias
• Herd behavior is contagious—even for experts
• Discipline must outlast narrative
• Concentration amplifies emotion
• Behavioral mastery is a competitive edge

 

 

 

Cheers

Jacquie