Jacque's Post
November 28, 2025
(SUMMARY OF JOHN’S NOVEMBER 26, 2025, WEBINAR)
November 28, 2025
Hello everyone
TITLE – Hard Bounce
MAD HEDGE TRADERS & INVESTORS SUMMIT
December 2-4, 2025, 9:00 a.m. – 5:00 p.m. EST
$100,000 in free prizes awarded to those who register.
Attendance is free.
LUNCHEONS
Salt Lake City, Utah Strategy Luncheon – Wednesday, December 10, 2025
Orlando, Florida Strategy Luncheon – Thursday, January 8, 2026
Sarasota, Florida Strategy Luncheon – Thursday, January 14, 2026
Miami, Florida Strategy Luncheon – Thursday, January 16, 2026
Go to the madhedgefundtrader.com and click on the Luncheons heading to secure your ticket.
PERFORMANCE
MTD = +0.25%
Since inception = +811.09%
2025 YTD = +59.20%
PORTFOLIO
MS 12/$150-$155 call spread (10%)
THE GLOBAL ECONOMY – THE SHUTDOWN ENDS
Some 119,000 jobs were gained in September.
But the unemployment rate rose 0.1% to 4.4%, a 2025 high. August revisions came in at 39,000 downward.
Bureau of Labor Statistics cancels October Jobs Report.
S&P Global US Services flash PMI comes in Warm at 54.8.
US Manufacturing is Slowing.
Jobless Claims hit a two-month high.
Device Hoarding is holding back the Economy
The CPI rose by 0.3% in October.
Auto Loan Defaults hit record high
STOCKS – VOLATILITY!
Bitcoin craters to $80,000 and is now down 36% in a month, dragging down stocks with margin calls.
Robinhood (HOOD), Coinbase (COIN), and Interactive Brokers (IBKR) are the worst affected.
Moderna (MRNA) is the most shorted stock in the S&P500.
Meta wins FTC Antitrust Trial. The case, initially filed by the FTC five years ago, centered on Meta’s acquisition of WhatsApp and Instagram.
Major Cloudflare Outage takes out big part of the internet.
Strategy buys more Bitcoin, taking holdings up to $70 billion.
Berkshire Hathaway takes major stake in Amazon.
Novo Nordisk dives into Alzheimer’s drug failure.
Boeing ends the strike.
Is Eli Lily the next stock to split?
(John says to buy banks in 2026, and buy Caterpillar (CAT) on weakness).
S&P500 support Zones
1st support = $650
2nd support – $630
BONDS
The Bond Market may cap AI Spending.
The major cloud computing and AI platform companies known as “hyperscalers” have borrowed nearly $90 billion.
Google owner Alphabet (GOOGL) selling $25 billion in bonds, Meta (META) $30 billion, Oracle (ORCL) $18 billion, and Amazon (AMZN) the most recent $15 billion.
Only Microsoft (MSFT), the fifth one, has not tapped the debt market in recent weeks.
This is on top of $10 trillion in US government financing needs in 2026.
Will they crowd out the US government or vice versa.
No trade here, no volatility.
Avoid (TLT), (JNK), (NLY), (SLRN) and (REITS)
FOREIGN CURRENCIES – DOLLAR STRENGTH GOING INTO FED MEETING
US dollar faces a prolonged decline, off the back of coming Fed interest rate cuts.
Foreign currencies trade off interest rate differentials and Fed rate cut futures at 30% supported the buck.
The US dollar strength last week is from a flight to safety bid from the stock market sell off.
We may see another 20% move down as more Fed interest rates cuts loom.
Next dollar weakness will come with evidence of more rate cuts.
Buy (FXA), (FXE), (FXB), (FXC), and (FXY)
ENERGY & COMMODITIES
Proposed new peace treaty for Ukraine prompts another oil selloff.
Cold winter has sent natural gas soaring.
Chile’s (SQM) expects 25% Lithium demand increase in 2026.
US to stop minting pennies.
Avoid all conventional energy plays in oil and gas.
Crude oil is down 20% YTD, the worst performing asset class.
PRECIOUS METALS
BHP takes a run at Agnico Eagle (AEM), a producer of 3.5 million ounces of gold a year.
Barrick Gold (B) may break up as costs are rising faster than gold prices.
Randgold Resources merger in 2018 failed because cost rose faster than the price of gold.
Precious metals and related mining stocks are digesting gold correction.
The charts suggest that gold and gold miners are due for a more prolonger period of consolidation to reset their bullish long-term trends.
There is gap-based support near $3,927/oz.
If it is breached it would increase near-term downside risk to the 50-day moving average (MA), currently $3,766/oz, and rising over time.
The long-term gold and silver plays are still on.
REAL ESTATE – GOING NOWHERE
Home Foreclosure jump 20% in October.
Existing Home Sales rise 1.2% in October, and up 1.7% year over year.
Sales of previously owned homes in October rose to 4.1 million units on a seasonally adjusted, annualized basis, according to the National Association of Realtors.
The inventory of homes for sale fell to 1.52 million units, down 0.7% from September, although still nearly 11% higher than a year earlier.
At the current sales pace, there is a 4.4 -month supply, still considered lean.
Homebuilder Sentiment comes in flat.
Construction spending is up 0.2%, the best reading of the year.
REVIEW
Stocks – buy interest rate sensitives and tech
Bonds – stand aside
Commodities – buy dips
Precious Metals – buy dips
Energy – stand aside
Volatility – sell over $30
Real Estate – buy dips
NEXT STRATEGY WEBINAR
12:00 EST Wednesday, December 10, 2025
From Incline Village, NV.
Last Webinar of the Year.
Cheers
Jacquie
