October 1, 2025

 

(WELCOME TO THE U.S. GOVERNMENT SHUTDOWN EVENT)

October 1, 2025

Hello everyone

Welcome to the month of October.  A month that many investors fear.

What makes this one different is now we have a government shutdown, and the main question is – how long will it last?

 

Federal agencies across the country will be shut down, with non-essential workers, like park rangers, put on leave without pay.

Essential federal workers, like the military, immigration, and airport security, will continue to work but will not get paid until after the shutdown.

Some government services will face disruption.

The shutdown is expected to delay the release of crucial jobs data and could further bewilder investors about interest rate forecasts.

 

So, why the U.S. government shutdown?

Healthcare benefits are a major issue.  The Democrats and Republicans can’t agree about extending tax credits to subsidise health insurance.

Those credits are set to expire by the end of the year.

 

It’s different this time

Trump has signalled that he may use a shutdown to cut the number of federal workers, ordering federal agencies to draft plans for sweeping layoffs if both sides cannot reach an agreement.

Parallel to this threat is the fact that more than 100,000 federal workers are set to resign from their roles after accepting Trump’s deferred resignation program as part of his effort to reduce the federal workforce.

 

Historical look at U.S. shutdowns

There have been 21 U.S. government shutdowns in the past 50 years.

The last shutdown was triggered by U.S. President Trump’s multibillion-dollar request to build a wall on the U.S.-Mexico border during his first term.

It lasted 34 days from December 2018 to January 2019, with about 800,000 of the 2.1 million federal workers furloughed.

There were two other shutdowns during his first term, one lasting three days and the other lasting just several hours.

Former President Bill Clinton held the previous record of the longest shutdown in U.S. history, 21 days in 1996.

The disorganisation and dysfunction in the U.S. government can be seen as a weakness and reduce its credibility as a regional and global leader.

 

 

 

 

AUSTRALIAN CORNER

Bad news

China has temporarily banned BHP iron ore imports.

BHP closed more than -2% today.

Good news

BHP is set to boost copper production with an injection of $840 million on its Olympic Dam copper operations in South Australia.

The investment will fund key initiatives, including an underground access tunnel, a new backfill system, expanded ore pass capacity, and a new oxygen plant to enhance smelter efficiency.

The Olympic Dam project holds one of the world’s largest deposits of copper, uranium, and gold.

It has produced more than 300,000 metric tonnes of copper annually for the past three years.

Edgar Basto, BHP COO, notes that “BHP is the largest producer of copper in the world, and we expect to grow out copper base from 1.7 million tonnes to around 2.5 million tonnes per annum”.

Copper demand is projected to grow 70% by 2050 due to population growth, rising living standards, and the energy transition.

QI CORNER

Slave Bunescu (Specialist in Airline industry)

 

 

 

Cheers

Jacquie