October 13, 2025

(TRUMP TURNS ON CHINA AND TANKS THE MARKET)

October 13, 2025

Hello everyone

WEEK AHEAD CALENDAR

MONDAY, OCT. 13

Columbus Day

Bond market closes

Earnings: Fastenal

TUESDAY, OCT. 14

6:00 a.m. NFIB optimism index

8:45 a.m. Fed governor Michelle Bowman speaks

3:25 p.m. Fed governor Christopher Waller speaks

Earnings: J.B. Hunt Transport Services, United Airlines, Prologis, Morgan Stanley, Abbott Laboratories, Bank of America, Citizens Financial Group, Synchrony Financial, The PNC Financial Services Group, Progressive.

WEDNESDAY, OCT. 15

8:30 a.m. Empire State manufacturing survey

12:30 p.m. Fed governor Stephen Miran speaks

1:00 p.m. Fed governor Christopher Waller speaks

2:00 p.m. Fed Beige Book

Earnings: Interactive Brokers Group, CSX, The Travelers Cos., U.S. Bancorp, Snap-On, KeyCorp, The Bank of New York Mellon, Charles Schwab, M&T Bank, Marsh & McLennan Cos.

THURSDAY, OCT. 16

8:30 a.m. U.S. Retail Sales

8:30 a.m. Producer Price Index

8:30 a.m. Core PPI

8:30 a.m. Initial jobless claims

8:30 a.m. Philadelphia Fed manufacturing survey

9:00 a.m. Fed governor Stephen Miran speaks

10:00 a.m. Home builder confidence index

10:00 a.m. Fed governor Michelle Bowman speaks

Earnings: State Street, Schlumberger, American Express, Fifth Third Bancorp, Regions Financial, Truist Financial, Huntington Bancshares.

FRIDAY, OCT. 17

8:30 a.m. Housing starts

8:30 a.m. Building permits

9:15 a.m. Industrial production

THE PRESIDENT IS WAVING A RED FLAG AT THE BULL

One comment was all it took to melt this market down. Threatening massive tariffs on Chinese imports – a great idea, I don’t think.

That’s how easily spooked this market is. Warning lights from several indicators and ratios have been flashing recently. Most notably, the Shiller CAPE ratio. This term refers to the cyclically adjusted price-to-earnings measure created by economist Robert Shiller. The CAPE compares prices to average inflation-adjusted earnings across the past ten years. It’s designed to filter out temporary noise and reveal when markets have drifted too far from their fundamental base.

At this time, the ratio is sitting at levels only seen before the Great Depression and the dot-com crash. Both of those eras were marked by confidence, liquidity, and a sense that the rules had changed – right up until they hadn’t.

Today’s environment is a little different. Central banks are far more active, global capital moves at the speed of light, and the economy is less tied to any single sector.

However, I’m not going to dismiss the signal.

Historically, when valuations reach this kind of altitude, the exact timing of the fall is not predicted, but it can suggest that a bumpy ride may be on the horizon.

Markets are fragile at these extremes. And they could even keep climbing for months.

Let’s balance the argument here.

We are hearing so many stories about Armageddon in the market, but what about the opposing view?

We are in the Fourth Industrial Revolution. It is not just about one technology, but the seamless integration of many, including AI, robotics, and quantum computing.

We are only at the beginning.

MIDDLE EASTERN PEACE

Trump has announced that the Middle Eastern war is over. Hamas is releasing Israeli hostages and Palestinian prisoners are also being released. Palestinians are slowly returning to Gaza, only to find their homes no longer exist. Although aid is now flowing into Gaza, it is still not enough, and the method of delivery is not satisfactory – many people are not receiving any aid. There is hope that this peace deal will hold. We have a long way to go before there will be any certainty. In the meantime, we watch and observe.

MARKET UPDATE

S&P500

The index reversed sharply on Friday from the October 9^th high at 6765 and reached the base of the bull channel from July at 6550/65. We may get a bounce from these levels, but there are a lot of negatives that could weigh on the index for weeks. We could see increased volatility causing wild swings in both directions.

Resistance: 6595 and 6655/70

Support: 6550/65

GOLD

Gold has continued to rally, reaching the top of the bull channel since December 2024. (4055/65). Still no top “pattern wise”, however, the negatives are piling up, which may suggest that an interim top is quite close now.

Resistance: 4065

Support: 3940/50 and 3835/45

BITCOIN

The market has accelerated lower after making a slight new high at 126.3k. Technical indicators are bearish, and this may add to the notion that Bitcoin may have topped for a few weeks/months. Wild swings are now possible within this period of volatility.

Resistance: 114.0/114.5k and 117.8/118.3k

Support: 109.2k and 106.9/107.4k

HISTORY CORNER

On October 13

QI CORNER

Niccolo M.M. (Family Office News, providing connections to the 0.01%)

Family Offices Just Bought An Entire Country

Montenegro is quietly becoming one of Europe’s most elite destinations for global wealth.

Claims suggest “32% of residents are millionaires,” the real story is more nuanced and arguably more fascinating.

How It Happened –

Citizenship by Investment (2019–2022):

Montenegro offered residency and citizenship for investments starting at €350,000.

Hundreds of ultra-wealthy individuals applied before the program was closed under EU pressure.

Strategic Real Estate Acquisitions:

Coastal towns and luxury developments saw major investments from global family offices and sovereign wealth funds.

Banking & Legal Advantages:

Montenegro offers a low corporate tax (9%), no wealth tax, and dual citizenship. English common law contracts are widely accepted in private transactions.

Porto Montenegro: The Family Office Magnet

Originally developed by billionaire Peter Munk, now owned by the Investment Corporation of Dubai.

€1 billion superyacht marina, luxury residences, and exclusive clubs.

A hub for ultra-high-net-worth individuals and global family offices.

Who’s Investing?

Russian family offices: Significant coastal real estate holdings

British investors: Dominating tourism and hospitality

Italian families: Active in banking and financial services

American groups: Building tech and innovation hubs

Montenegro’s 2030 Vision

EU Membership Expected by 2028–2030
Swiss-style banking laws in development
Monaco-level luxury density planned

Did family offices create their own country?