October 27, 2025

(AN EVENTFUL WEEK COULD ADD FUEL TO THE MARKETS – OR NOT?)

October 27, 2025

Hello everyone

WEEK AHEAD CALENDAR

Monday, Oct. 27

8:30 a.m. Durable goods orders (Sept.)

8:30 a.m. Durable goods minus transportation (Sept.)

Earnings: Waste Management, Universal Health Services, Nucor, Alexandria Real Estate Equities, Keurig Dr. Pepper

Tuesday, Oct. 28

9:00 a.m. S&P Case Shiller home price index (20 cities) Aug.

10:00 a.m. Consumer confidence Oct.

Earnings: Mondelez International, Edison International, Electronic Arts, Booking Holdings, Visa, PPG Industries, Sysco, Ecolab, Hubbell, Sherwin-Williams, invesco, American Tower, A.O. Smith, Labcorp, Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, United Parcel Service, United Health Group, Royal Caribbean Group, PayPal Holdings, NextEra Energy, IQVIA Holdings, Corning, D.R. Horton

Wednesday, Oct. 29

8:30 a.m. Advanced U.S. trade balance in goods (Sept.)

8:30 a.m. Advanced retail inventories (Sept.)

8:30 a.m. Advanced Wholesale inventories (Sept.)

10:00 a.m. Pending home sales (Sept.)

2:00 p.m. FOMC Meeting

2:00 p.m. Fed Funds Target Upper Bound

2:30 p.m. Fed Chair Powell press conference

Earnings: MGM Resorts International, ServiceNow, Chipotle Mexican Grill, Starbucks, Public Storage, Align Technology, Tyler Technologies, Prudential Financial, Microsoft, Meta Platforms, KLA, Invitation Homes, Alphabet, Extra Space Storage, eBay, AvalonBay Communities, Boeing, Phillips66, Kraft Heinz, Verizon Communications, CVS Health, Caterpillar, Old Dominion Freight Line, Generac Holdings, GE Healthcare Technologies, Automatic Data Processing.

Thursday, Oct. 30

8:30 a.m. Initial jobless claims (Oct.)

8:30 a.m. GDP (Q3)

Earnings: Apple, Edwards Lifesciences, Gilead Sciences, Monolithic Power Systems, Amazon, Western Digital, Motorola Solutions, Ingersoll Rand, GoDaddy, First Solar, DexCom, Coinbase Global, Kellanova, Ameriprise Financial, S&PGlobal, Huntington Ingalls Industries, Baxter International, Altria Group, Howmet Aerospace, Hershey, Comcast, Bristol Myers Squibb, Kimco Realty, Eli Lilly, Estee Lauder Companies, Merck & Co., Kimberly-Clark, Cigna Group, Vulcan Materials, Quanta Services, Mastercard, L3Harris Technologies, International Paper, DTE Energy, Cardinal health, Biogen.

Friday, Oct. 31

8:30 a.m. Consumer spending (Sept.)

8:30 a.m. PCE index (Sept.)

8:30 a.m. Core PCE index (Sept.)

8:30 a.m. Employment cost index (Q3)

9:45 a.m. Chicago Business Barometer (PMI)

Earnings: Dominion Energy, T. Rowe Price Group, Charter Communications, Exxon Mobil, Chevron, Colgate-Palmolive, AbbVie

S&P500

S&P500 has made yet another all-time high – the long-held bull bias remains, as there is still no indication of a top forming yet. Of course, risks are high. Liquidations in other sectors – gold & bitcoin – is something to be mindful of as it can be a red flag to an eventual change in momentum in the index.

Resistance: 6830/75

Support: ~6690 and 6585

Gold

The shiny metal is finding some support around the bull trend line at ~$4025 after the large drop from the October high at $4381. Thus far, no confirmation of an important top, but we will be monitoring price action, which can inform us whether the recent top will be longer in duration than a few weeks.

Update: As I watch gold this evening, Wave C is moving lower. The downside target moves down to around 3,780. Price action must remain below 4,138 to keep this view valid.

Resistance: $4150/50 and $4190

Support: $3965/75

Bitcoin

Bitcoin is consolidating after its spike low to around 103k. Large swings are expected after such volatility. And near-term positive bullish rallies continue to be seen as bullish false breaks. In other words, they would be part of a topping pattern that is playing out in Bitcoin.

Resistance: ~111/112k, ~115k, and ~117.5/118k

Support: 106k/107k area

AN EVENTFUL WEEK AHEAD

Futures have jumped this morning, which is pointing to an interesting week ahead. We have big tech earnings this week, as well as earnings in big energy names, too. The Federal Reserve meets on Wednesday, and it is the conference that will deliver the most important updates – and these statements can be big market movers. President Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping are due to meet, and the outcome of this meeting could set the tone of the markets for the rest of the year.

THE CRITICAL MINERALS DEAL BETWEEN AUSTRALIA AND AMERICA

President Trump and Prime Minister Albanese have come to an agreement – $1 billion is on the table to spend in the next six months to unlock an $8.5 billion pipeline of critical minerals projects. The Alcoa-Sojitz project in Western Australia and Arafura’s Nolans project in the Northern Territory have been given priority. However, no funds have been set aside yet for the mineral-rich Northwest Queensland. This area is home to about 75 per cent of the state’s base metal and mineral capabilities. Despite the richness of resources, many mines are not yet in operation. The region holds 30 per cent of the world’s vanadium deposits, but none of the five active projects have commercially exported a single tonne. Lack of funding, transport and logistical difficulties, and higher costs are proving to be obstacles in building the supply chains.

Vanadium is a natural soft metal and critical mineral, used to develop steel alloys, large-scale energy battery storage, and is in high global demand.

Finding minerals is not the biggest problem in Australia; it is the time to get them into production – 10 to 20 years, which is costly.

UBS SAYS DON’T SWEAT THE GOLD PULLBACK

The investment bank views the shiny metal as an effective hedge against any geopolitical or economic shocks. As global uncertainty is not going away, the bank views the pullback as a healthy consolidation rather than a structural reversal. UBS has a year-end target of $4,200 per ounce, with an upside target of $4,700 if global tensions rise or U.S. fiscal risks deepen. Lower interest rates, a lower dollar, and increasing concern over sovereign debt are also expected to fuel further inflows into the metal.

ON MY RADAR

Netflix (NFLX) daily chart $1094.69

As you can see, Netflix has pulled back to the 0.5 Fib. The RSI is under 40, as the consolidation of late has taken the stock out of overbought territory. I stayed out of the market last week because of earnings. The stock is now in a good buy zone. I’m expecting the stock to target at least $1,500. The bullish outlook is canceled if the stock closes below $800.

Amazon has been consolidating for a few months now. The stock is respecting the 0.382 Fib., which is a good buying zone. Target is $300+. I know Amazon has earnings this week, so if you scale in before earnings, make sure you have a stop in place. Price must remain above $211 to keep this view valid.

HISTORY CORNER

On October 27 –