October 3, 2025

 

(SUMMARY OF JOHN’S OCTOBER 1, 2025, WEBINAR)

 

October 3, 2025

 

Hello everyone

 

TITLE

Closed for Business

 

TRADE ALERT PERFORMANCE

September = +2.45% MTD

Since inception = +808.14%

2025 YTD = +56.25%

Trailing One Year Return = +87.14%

Average Annualised Return =27.85%

 

PORTFOLIO

(MSTR) $260-$270 call spread

(GS) $700-$710 call spread

Risk Off

(TSLA) $510-$520 put spread

 

METHOD TO MY MADNESS

Stocks are now at very high-risk levels and could still see a ‘sell the news’ on the Fed interest rate cut.

There will be no interest rate cuts while the government is closed.

A Jobs Crash has steered the Fed towards stimulating the economy.

Bonds are going nowhere after what should be a massive stimulus.

Economic data finally managed a few positive reports.

Gold knows no limits but is getting overbought.

Oil is still dead, on recession fears and the OPEC market share battle.

U.S. dollar is still weakening.

Bitcoin has lost upside momentum.

 

THE GLOBAL ECONOMY – SHUTDOWN COST COMING

Government to shut down on Wednesday, sending unemployment soaring and growth into a tailspin.  The result could cut 0.5% off U.S. GDP.

The Jobs crash continues with ADP down -32,000 for August and big back-month downward revisions.

Fed cuts interest rates by 25 basis points, rallying all markets.  Job risk has increased, taking priority over inflation concerns, but can they cut without any jobs data?

Core Inflation holds steady at 2.9%.

U.S. consumer spending power on increased 0.4% last month.

GDP comes in hot, showing a gain of 3.8% in the second quarter.

Durable Goods Orders rose by 2.9% month-over-month to $312.1 billion in August 2025, reversing a revised 2.7% slump in July.

The Social Security COLA for 2026 is out at 2.9%.

 

WHAT IS QUANTITATIVE EASING?

QE = the ultimate printing press.

The Fed buys long-term bonds and mortgage-backed securities to drive down long-term interest rates.

This was first initiated in 2008 to stop the real estate crash, driving the Fed’s balance sheet from near zero to $9.1 trillion.

Add to this a cut in the federal funds rate from 4.25% to below 3.0% by a new Fed governor starting in May.

The result will be a recovery in real estate and a super-heated stock and crypto market.

The result will be a higher high, then a crash and a lower low.

A recession always follows.

Don’t forget to sit down when the music stops playing or you will lose everything.

 

STOCKS – SHUTDOWN PAUSE

A government shutdown will cause the bull market to go on hold, but not crash.

Buy the dip – QE is coming.

Equity Funds see record outflows as investors rush to book profits.

Crypto ETF’s about to flood the market, as the SEC’s new standard streamlines crypto ETF approvals.

The Options market is turning hyper bullish with trading volume hitting a new all-time high after the Fed meeting.

$100,000 H1B Data Fee to cost US Tech $14 billion and cause turmoil in the tech industry.

A major rotation took place last week, out of Big Tech and into everything else, including financials, energy, pharmaceuticals, and precious metals.

If this rotation continues, it could send major stock indexes to new highs well into 2026.

An exploding money supply is hugely stock positive.

Nuclear power plays are just getting started – a 10-year run.

Look at Nuscale (NU), Vistra (VST), Cameco Corp (CCJ), and copper.

John favours stocks related to housing, interest-sensitive businesses, financials, and precious metals.

Buy these stocks on dips – Google (GOOGL), Amazon (AMZN) & buy Goldman Sachs (GS) and Morgan Stanley (MS).

Crown Castle International (CCI) in LEAPS territory.

 

BONDS – STUCK IN THE MUD

The interest rate on the most popular U.S. home loan dropped last week to its lowest in a year.

This has sent homeowners racing to lock in cheaper borrowing costs as slowing jobs growth and expectations for more interest-rate cuts drive down yields on benchmark Treasuries.

The Mortgage Bankers Association on Wednesday said the contract rate on a 30-year, fixed-rate mortgage dropped 10 basis points in the week ended September 12 to 6.39%

The US yield curve is steepening.

The only thing that can save the bond market is massive Fed buying through QE.

Avoid (TLT), (JNK), (NLY), (SLRN), and REITS.

 

FOREIGN CURRENCIES – TRENDING UP AGAIN

Foreign currencies have started to trend up again after the Fed interest rate cut.

Australian dollar has seen nice gains.

We may see another 20% move down as Fed interest rate cuts loom.

With the dollar down 15% against the Euro, this effectively doubles imported inflation to a 30% rate, sending prices through the roof and demolishing the US economy.

Next dollar weakness will come with evidence of a recession.

Buy (FXA), (FXE), (FXB), (FXC), and (FXY)

 

ENERGY & COMMODITIES – BREAKDOWN COMING

OPEC + Oil Production falling below target.

OPEC+ has delivered about 75% of the extra oil output it targeted since the group started production hikes in April.

The level may fall closer to half later in the year as producers hit capacity limits.

OPEC+, which produces 50% of global oil and brings together the OPEC and allies such as Russia, has been pumping almost 500,000 barrels per day below its targets.

The shortfall, equal to 0.5% of global demand, has defied market expectations of a supply glut and supported oil prices.

Freeport McMoRan halts exports of copper from Indonesia, knocking the stock down 20%.

China announces construction of 17 new nuclear power plants.

 

PRECIOUS METALS – BIG QE WINNER

The introduction of QE and interest rate cuts could cause explosive moves up in precious metal prices.

Gold is hanging on to new highs very nicely.

Is Gold the new “Safe” Asset?  The barbarous relic has rallied in every bear market of the last 50 years.

Newmont Sells Oria Mine for $439 million, popping the stock $3.50.

Gold’s rally has been driven by growing anxiety about the US economic trajectory, with investors seeking a hedge against rising prices and weakening currencies, and its price could vault higher if equity markets start to waver.

 

REAL ESTATE – NEW HOMES ON FIRE!

New Home Sales Rocket 20% in August on falling interest rates, the largest one-month since August 2022.

Sales were 15.4% higher than in August 2024.

This count is based on people out shopping in August and signing deals when the average rate on the 30-year fixed mortgage was higher than it is today.

That rate started in August at 6.63%, according to Mortgage News Daily, and didn’t really move much during the month.

Existing Home Sales fall -0.2% in August and were up 1.8% YOY.

These figures are based on June and July closing when interest rates were 0.50% higher.

Inventories are down 1.3% to a 4–6-month supply after rising all year.

The median price sold is at $422,600, up 2% YOY.

 

TRADE SHEET

Stocks – buy interest rate sensitive

Bonds – stand aside

Commodities – buy dips

Currencies – buy dips

Precious Metals – buy dips

Energy – buy dips

Volatility – sell over $30

Real Estate – buy dips

 

NEXT STRATEGY WEBINAR

12:00 EST Wednesday, October 15, 2025

From Incline Village, NV.

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Thank you to all those who attended the Jacquie’s Post Zoom Monthly Meeting for September 2025 on Friday, October 3 (Australian time). A great discussion followed the presentation.  I appreciated everyone’s input.

The recording of the Zoom meeting has been emailed to you this evening (Australian time).

 

Cheers

Jacquie