September 15, 2025

(THE FED DOMINATES THIS WEEK)

September 15, 2025

Hello everyone

WEEK AHEAD CALENDAR

Monday, Sept. 15

8:00 a.m. Empire State Index (September)

2:10 p.m. Euro Area ECB Lagarde Speech

Tuesday, Sept. 16

8:30 a.m. Canada Inflation Rate

Previous: 1.7%

Forecast: 1.8%

8:30 a.m. Export Price Index (August)

8:30 a.m. Import Price Index (August)

9:15 a.m. Capacity Utilization (August)

9:15 a.m. Industrial Production (August)

9:15 a.m. Manufacturing Production (August)

10:00 a.m. Business Inventories (July)

10:00 a.m. NAHB Housing Market Index (September)

Wednesday, Sept 17

8:30 a.m. Building Permits preliminary (August)

8:30 a.m. Housing Starts (August)

2:00 p.m. FOMC Meeting

Previous: 4.5%

Forecast: 4.25%

2:00 p.m. Fed Funds Target Upper Bound

Earnings: General Mills

Thursday, Sept. 18

7:00 a.m. UK Rate Decision

Previous: 4.0%

Forecast: 4.0%

8:30 a.m. Continuing Jobless Claims (09/06)

8:30 a.m. Initial Claims (09/13)

8:30 a.m. Philadelphia Fed Index (September)

10:00 a.m. Leading Indicators (August)

Earnings: Darden Restaurants, FedEx, Lennar.

Friday, Sept. 19

2:00 a.m. UK Retail Sales

Previous: 0.6%

Forecast: 0.2%

It’s all about that meeting this week

Is it right to cut or not?

Ed Yardeni doesn’t think the Fed should cut. He began his career in the economics research department of the New York Fed in 1977.

He doesn’t think the economy is weak enough to merit easier monetary policy. He notes that “cutting rates when it’s not necessary could cause stock prices to melt up and destabilize the broader financial system.”

Yardeni goes on to say that the financial instability could result in a melt-up/meltdown in the stock market. He notes that solid productivity led growth in real GDP implies that currently, interest rates are just fine where they are.

Presently, there is a 92.5% chance of a quarter-point cut, as well as a 7.5% probability of a bigger half-point reduction.

Many others disagree with Yardeni and believe a Fed cut will stimulate housing demand.

It would reduce mortgage rates and interest rates on auto loans, as well as other consumer loans.

And we can also add here that loans to businesses would be cheaper.

The improved affordability could stimulate consumption and boost economic activity in sectors that cater to middle-income consumers.

First home buyers may find modest relief as mortgage rates decline, though housing affordability remains challenged by elevated home prices in many markets.

For higher-net-worth individuals and institutional investors, rate cuts benefit them in a different way. When rates decline, asset prices typically appreciate – particularly equities, real estate, and other investment vehicles that disproportionately benefit those with substantial investment portfolios.

The real market mover will be forward guidance – markets are currently pricing cuts at every meeting through year-end.

Wealth preservation

Real assets – precious metals, agricultural land, timber, and real estate.

Dollar cost average into gold every month.

Look at emerging markets, as the U.S. is quite expensive.

Avoid overexposure to bonds and cash – given the long-term inflation risks.

Individual investors should consider their personal time horizon, risk tolerance, and financial objectives when implementing any investment strategy.

Continued concerns about the US inflation and debt are likely to strengthen gold in the coming months as investors seek tangible assets with proven historical performance during monetary uncertainty.

MARKET UPDATE

S&P500

The index has made another new high, reaching 6600 on Sept. 12. There is risk in the upside, both near and longer term, but there is still no confirmation of even a shorter-term peak, “pattern-wise,” so the bias remains to the upside.

Resistance: 6655/70

Support: 6525/65 and 6475/85/6410

GOLD

The precious metal has made another new all-time high at $3675. There is still no confirmation of even a shorter-term peak, but as we can see, the market is getting near-term overbought, suggesting a rising risk of a top for at least a few weeks.

Resistance: Recent top at $3675

Support: $3610/20 (a break/close here would argue a near-term top is in place), $3534, and $3495.

BITCOIN

Bitcoin has continued higher from the September 1^st low at 107.3k. There is no confirmation of a shorter-term top yet, but the gains are seen as a correction/part of a larger topping. Bitcoin should resume a downside drift after a top is made.

Resistance: 116.3/116.8k

Support: 112.0/112.5k and 108.9/109.4k, but I do believe there is a chance that Bitcoin could fall to the 105k area and even spike down under 100k.

ON MY RADAR

Alibaba is just one of the stocks on my radar. We have strong divergence on the weekly, a resistance zone that has now become support, and a 200 simple moving average that is now sitting just underneath a support zone. I am bullish on this stock in the long term. I do not recommend trading the market this week, as we could experience intense volatility. Wait until the dust settles.

If you would rather purchase Alibaba through an ETF, you could look at the Invesco Golden Dragon China ETF (PGJ).

China is ramping up its spending to capture future AI opportunities.

QI CORNER

Nick Johnson (CFA, CFP)