September 19, 2025

 

(SUMMARY OF JOHN’S SEPTEMBER 17, 2025, WEBINAR)

 

September 19, 2025

 

Hello everyone

 

TITLE:   The Greater Fools are Watching

 

REPLAYS ARE UP FROM THE MAD HEDGE TRADERS & INVESTORS SUMMIT

 

TRADE ALERT PERFORMANCE

September 1.69%

2025 YTD = 55.21%

Since inception = 836.66%

Trailing one year return = +94.66%

 

PORTFOLIO REVIEW

(GS) 9/$590/$700 call spread (Profits taken – position closed)

(JPM) 9/$270/$280 call spread (Profits taken – position closed)

(MSTR)10/$260/$270 in the money bull call debit spread at $9:00 or best. (Trade opened Sept. 16).

 

THE GLOBAL ECONOMY – JOBS CRASH

Nonfarm payroll collapses in August to only 22,000.  Far below the 75,000 estimate and the 363,000 from the beginning of 2024.

2025 payrolls are marked down an incredible 911,000, indicating that the economy is far weaker than thought.

Weekly jobless claims rise to a shocking 263,000, a four-year high.

Trump Tariffs ruled illegal.

Consumer Price Index rises 0.4% and up 2.9% YOY, for the fifth consecutive month.

Consumer Sentiment comes in weak with the University of Michigan at a six-month low, and inflation expectations are the highest since June.

Demand for Industrial space hits a 15-year low.

The Las Vegas strip has slowed with a visitation decline, showing a 12% year-over-year decline.

 

STOCKS – WAITING FOR THE FED

Is the bull market over?  According to John, Goldman Sachs (GS) analysts have warned investors that the artificial intelligence (AI) trade could cool off.

Oracle soars by 23% on the back of a spectacular cloud growth forecast, making Larry Ellison the richest man in the world.

Robinhood (HOOD) joins the S&P 500.  It’s a great play amongst Millennial Traders and market volume. (HOOD)’s entry was delayed because of its close association with crypto.

Health & Human Services to badmouth Tylenol, with an internet conspiracy theory claiming it causes autism.  (KVUE), a Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) spinoff and current Tylenol maker and owner saw their shares dive 14%.

Broadcom scores $10 billion chip order, the largest in history, popping the share by 10%.

Kraft Heinz splits, tanking the stock.

Marvel shares dive 16% after the artificial intelligence chipmaker’s data center revenue fell short of estimates.

 

S&P 500 DOWNSIDE TARGETS = $630, $590 & $570.

 

BONDS – END OF THE WORLD

The US Yield Curve is Steepening.

So, the broad market thinks the end of the world is at hand.

The U.S. Treasury yield curve, a crucial barometer of how the economy is doing, has steepened on fears of mounting public debt, the President’s attempts to exert control over the Federal Reserve, and his aggressive tariff policies.

The shift has direct implications for banks’ net interest income.

It also shapes their lending decisions, since banks borrow short-term and lend long-term, relying on the spread between the two for profits.

John says that there is bad news for the economy and the stock market coming.

 

FOREIGN CURRENCIES – FLAT LINING AHEAD OF FED MOVE

Foreign currencies have stalled ahead of the Fed move.

Only the Australian dollar has seen nice gains.

We may see another 20% move down as Fed interest rate cuts loom.

With the dollar down 15% against the Euro, this effectively doubles imported inflation to a 30% rate, sending prices through the roof and demolishing the US economy.

John believes that the next dollar weakness will come with evidence of a recession.

Buy (FXA), (FXE), (FXB), (FXC), and (FXY)

 

ENERGY & COMMODITIES – BOUNCING ALONG A BOTTOM

Oil jumps 2% on Ukraine drone attack.

A Ukrainian drone attack on a Russian port suspended loading, outweighing pressure from oversupply concerns and weaker U.S. demand risks.

The drone attack on Russia’s northwestern port of Primerst – one of the country’s largest oil and fuel export terminals.

This led to a suspension of oil loading operations overnight.

Money is starting to move into the energy sector as one of the few laggards in the market.

Nuclear plays are still hot with a deregulation tailwind.

The same story with electric utilities.

 

PRECIOUS METALS

Gold tops 1980 inflation-adjusted high.

Gold has surged about 5% this month, hitting an all-time high of $3,674.27 an ounce.

Gold has set more than 30 nominal records in 2025.

The spot price of gold has eclipsed its inflation-adjusted peak set on Jan.21, 1950, when prices topped out at $850.

That equates to about $3,590 in today’s dollars.

Gold’s rally has been driven by growing anxiety about the US economic trajectory, with investors seeking a hedge against rising prices and weakening currencies.  The price could vault higher if equity markets start to waver.

 

REAL ESTATE – GREEN SHOOTS?

Mortgage demand hits a three-year high.

A sharp drop in mortgage interest rates finally got some homebuyers off the fence.

It also helped more current homeowners save on their monthly payments.

Total mortgage application volume jumped 9.2% last week compared with the previous week.

Pending Home Sales drop 0.4% in June.

Housing is seeing the first year-on-year price falls in many years.

Some 1.55 million homes are for sale, up 15.77 YOY.

The median price of a home is $422,400, up only 0.2% YOY.

First home buyers were 28%, while all cash buyers were at a near record at 31%.

 

TRADE SHEET

STOCKS – buy interest rate sensitive

BONDS – sell rallies

COMMODITIES – buy dips

CURRENCIES – buy dips

PRECIOUS METALS – buy dips

ENERGY – stand aside

VOLATILITY – sell over $30

REAL ESTATE – stand aside

 

NEXT STRATEGY WEBINAR

12:00 EST Wednesday, October 1, 2025

From Incline Village, NV

 

 

Cheers

Jacquie